Changing patterns of teenage pregnancy: population based study of small areas

OBJECTIVES: To measure the impact of socioeconomic deprivation on rates of teenage pregnancy and the extent of local variation in pregnancy rates in Scotland, and to examine how both have changed over time. DESIGN: Population study using routine data from hospital records, aggregated for small areas. SUBJECTS: Female teenagers resident in Scotland who were treated for pregnancy in an NHS hospital in either 1981-5 (62 338 teenagers) or 1991-5 (48 514) and who were aged 13-19 at the time of conception. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Pregnancy rates per 1000 in age group and the proportions of pregnancies resulting in a maternity (live birth or stillbirth) in teenagers aged 13-15, 16-17, and 18-19. RESULTS: From the 1980s to the 1990s pregnancy rates increased differentially according to levels of local deprivation, as measured by the Carstairs index. Among teenagers aged less than 18 the annual pregnancy rate increased in the most deprived areas (from 7.0 to 12.5 pregnancies per 1000 13-15 year olds and from 67.6 to 84.6 per 1000 16-17 year olds), but there was no change, on average, among teenagers in the most affluent areas (3.8 per 1000 13-15 year olds and 28.9 per 1000 16-17 year olds). Among 18-19 year olds the pregnancy rate decreased in the most affluent areas (from 60.0 to 46.3 per 1000) and increased in the most deprived areas (from 112.4 to 116.0 per 1000). The amount of local variation explained by deprivation more than doubled from the 1980s to the 1990s. The proportion of pregnancies resulting in a maternity was positively associated with level of deprivation, but the effect remained similar over time. CONCLUSION: From the 1980s to the 1990s the difference in rates of teenage pregnancy between more affluent and more deprived areas widened. This has implications for allocating resources to achieve government targets and points to important social processes behind the general increase in the number of teenage pregnancies in Scotland

MSXA packaging

Marshall Experimental Sprayable Ablator (MXSA) ingredients were compounded into a two part system which requires a minimum of handling by the user. Preweighed two part kits were developed which require that the user supply only the solvent. The kits consist of all of the powdery materials in Part A, and the epoxy resin (AA397) in Part B. Recent aging data on the kits indicates that they are useable for at least 6 months. The acronym MXSA has recently been replaced with MSA (Marshall sprayable ablator)

Contracting out local government services: A comparative study of two New Zealand regional councils

Studies of New Zealand public sector reforms since the mid-1980s have tended to focus on the application of New Public Management principles to the central government. Yet local government in New Zealand too has experienced drastic restructuring with a view to ensuring greater rationalisation, efficiency and effectiveness. This article examines contracting out in New Zealand local government, focusing on the delivery of plant pest management by Environment Waikato(the Waikato Regional Council) and the Wellington Regional Council. The study reveals distinct differences in approach by the two councils, determined in each case by pragmatic responses to situational context rather than mere adherence to NPM principles

Assessing the human factors risks in extending the use of AWS

The project reported in this paper was conducted on behalf of the Rail Safety and Standards Board, and formed part of the SPAD reduction and mitigation research theme. It sought to assess the Human Factors risks associated with extending the use of the in-cab Automatic Warning System (AWS). The term “Extended AWS” refers to any situation where AWS is used other than to warn of the state of upcoming signals. This includes uses for permanent, temporary and emergency speed restrictions, certain level crossings, and, potentially, multi-SPAD signals. The paper summarises the work performed in the study. It considers new areas of psychological investigation believed to be important for driver related research, the methods used to gather and analyse industry experience, and concludes by examining the risk of drivers failing to behave appropriately to AWS warnings

NICMOS Observations of Low-Redshift Quasar Host Galaxies

We have obtained Near-Infrared Camera and Multi-Object Spectrometer images of 16 radio quiet quasars observed as part of a project to investigate the ``luminosity/host-mass limit.'' The limit results were presented in McLeod, Rieke, & Storrie-Lombardi (1999). In this paper, we present the images themselves, along with 1- and 2-dimensional analyses of the host galaxy properties. We find that our model-independent 1D technique is reliable for use on ground-based data at low redshifts; that many radio-quiet quasars live in deVaucouleurs-law hosts, although some of the techniques used to determine host type are questionable; that complex structure is found in many of the hosts, but that there are some hosts that are very smooth and symmetric; and that the nuclei radiate at ~2-20% of the Eddington rate based on the assumption that all galaxies have central black holes with a constant mass fraction of 0.6%. Despite targeting hard-to-resolve hosts, we have failed to find any that imply super-Eddington accretion rates.Comment: To appear in ApJ, 28 pages including degraded figures. Download the paper with full-resolutio figures from http://www.astro.wellesley.edu/kmcleod/mm.p

Improved Subset Autoregression: With R Package

The FitAR R (R Development Core Team 2008) package that is available on the Comprehensive R Archive Network is described. This package provides a comprehensive approach to fitting autoregressive and subset autoregressive time series. For long time series with complicated autocorrelation behavior, such as the monthly sunspot numbers, subset autoregression may prove more feasible and/or parsimonious than using AR or ARMA models. The two principal functions in this package are SelectModel and FitAR for automatic model selection and model fitting respectively. In addition to the regular autoregressive model and the usual subset autoregressive models (Tong'77), these functions implement a new family of models. This new family of subset autoregressive models is obtained by using the partial autocorrelations as parameters and then selecting a subset of these parameters. Further properties and results for these models are discussed in McLeod and Zhang (2006). The advantages of this approach are that not only is an efficient algorithm for exact maximum likelihood implemented but that efficient methods are derived for selecting high-order subset models that may occur in massive datasets containing long time series. A new improved extended {BIC} criterion, {UBIC}, developed by Chen and Chen (2008) is implemented for subset model selection. A complete suite of model building functions for each of the three types of autoregressive models described above are included in the package. The package includes functions for time series plots, diagnostic testing and plotting, bootstrapping, simulation, forecasting, Box-Cox analysis, spectral density estimation and other useful time series procedures. As well as methods for standard generic functions including print, plot, predict and others, some new generic functions and methods are supplied that make it easier to work with the output from FitAR for bootstrapping, simulation, spectral density estimation and Box-Cox analysis.

Practical Bayesian Optimization for Variable Cost Objectives

We propose a novel Bayesian Optimization approach for black-box functions with an environmental variable whose value determines the tradeoff between evaluation cost and the fidelity of the evaluations. Further, we use a novel approach to sampling support points, allowing faster construction of the acquisition function. This allows us to achieve optimization with lower overheads than previous approaches and is implemented for a more general class of problem. We show this approach to be effective on synthetic and real world benchmark problems.Comment: 8 pages, 7 figure

LANDSAT Digital Data Base Preparation for the Pennsylvania Defoliation Application Pilot Test

A LANDSAT digital mosaic data base for the State of Pennsylvania was prepared for use in the development of an automated system to annually estimate the extent and severity of Gypsy Moth defoliation of hardward forests. The techniques for detecting the defoliation and development of a geographic information system (GIS) to assess damage is being developed jointly by NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center and Pennsylvania State University using the JPL prepared mosaic base. The JPL processing involved the use of ground control points from the Master Data Processor for planimetric control, resampling of the LANDSAT data to 57 x 57 meter pixels, realignment to north, and reprojection to the Universal Transverse Mercator (UTM) projection in UTM zones 17 and 18. The completed mosaic for each UTM zone was subdivided into 1 degree of latitude by 2 degrees of longitude quadrangles for easy data handling. Consideration is given to the issues of mapping standards, sensor and spacecraft platform characteristics, and their implication to geographic information systems operation. Methods for obtaining measures of accuracy for LANDSAT mosaics are reviewed

Synthesis of improved phenolic resins

Twenty seven addition cured phenolic resin compositions were prepared and tested for their ability to give char residues comparable to state-of-the-art phenolic resins. Cyanate, epoxy, allyl, acrylate, methacrylate and ethynyl derivatized phenolic oligomers were investigated. The novolac-cyanate and propargyl-novolac resins provided anaerobic char yields at 800 C of 58 percent. A 59 percent char yield was obtained from modified epoxy novolacs. A phosphonitrilic derivative was found to be effective as an additive for increasing char yields. The novolac-cyanate, epoxy-novolac and methacrylate-epoxy-novolac systems were investigated as composite matrices with Thornel 300 graphite fiber. All three resins showed good potential as composite matrices. The free radical cured methacrylate-epoxy-novolac graphite composite provided short beam shear strengths at room temperature of 93.3 MPa (13.5 ksi). The novolac-cyanate graphite composite produced a short beam shear strength of 74 MPa (10.7 ksi) and flexural strength of 1302 MPa (189 ksi) at 177 C. Air heat aging of the novolac-cyanate and epoxy novolac based composites for 12 weeks at 204 C showed good property retention