Life expectancy drop in 2020. Estimates based on Human Mortality Database

In many countries of the world, COVID–19 pandemic has led to exceptional changes in mortality trends. Some studies have tried to quantify the effects of Covid-19 in terms of a reduction in life expectancy at birth in 2020. However, these estimates might need to be updated now that, in most countries, the mortality data for the whole year are available. We used data from the Human Mortality Database (HMD) Short-Term Mortality Fluctuations (STMF) data series to estimate life expectancy in 2020 for several countries. The changes estimated using these data and the appropriate methodology seem to be more pessimistic than those that have been proposed so far: life expectancy dropped in the Russia by 2.16 years, 1.85 in USA, and 1.27 in England and Wales. The differences among countries are substantial: many countries (e.g. Denmark, Island, Norway, New Zealand, South Korea) saw a rather limited drop in life expectancy or have even seen an increase in life expectancy

Similarities and differences between two cohorts of young adults in Italy

The paper analyses the results of a CATI survey, consisting on a representative national sample of 3083 young people of two different generations: the 23-27th and the 33-37th in the first half of 2004. The analysis is particularly targeted at the oldest cohort and investigates on the late transition to adulthood and its effect on fertility. We wonder whether Italian situation is converging to the European one. We also analyse the transition processes to all the events of the "life course" as interrelating mechanisms, where each process is the premise for the next step, but where all are probably considered indispensable for choosing to have a child. The results suggest a diffusion of new family forms among youth but a persistent delay in family formation.delay of family formation, Italy, transition to adulthood

Fitting age-specific fertility rates by a skew-symmetric probability density function

Mixture probability density functions had recently been proposed to describe some fertility patterns characterized by a bi-modal shape. These mixture probability density functions appear to be adequate when the fertility pattern is actually bi-modal but less useful when the shape of age-specific fertility rates is unimodal. A further model is proposed based on skew-symmetric probability density functions. This model is both more parsimonious than mixture distributions and more flexible, showing a good fit with several shapes (bi-modal or unimodal) of fertility patterns

Scelte Riproduttive tra Orientamenti Valoriali, Costi e Opportunità. Uno Studio Qualitativo in Contesto Urbano

This work presents results from a qualitative study on mothers and fathers with alternatively few (one) and many (three or more) children, aiming to analyse in-depth the mental processes that build up the reproductive choices of couples. The study particularly focuses on some dimensions: lifestyles, parenthood, costs and benefits of children, and policies supporting parenthood. Results suggest that parents are burdened with an excess of costs, especially of psychological kind, deriving from the delay of Italian society in conforming to the changes, occurred in the last decades in industrialized countries, regarding values and women’s role

Analyzing Cause-Specific Mortality Trends using Compositional Functional Data Analysis

We study the dynamics of cause--specific mortality rates among countries by considering them as compositions of functions. We develop a novel framework for such data structure, with particular attention to functional PCA. The application of this method to a subset of the WHO mortality database reveals the main modes of variation of cause--specific rates over years for men and women and enables us to perform clustering in the projected subspace. The results give many insights of the ongoing trends, only partially explained by past literature, that the considered countries are undergoing. We are also able to show the different evolution of cause of death undergone by men and women: for example, we can see that while lung cancer incidence is stabilizing for men, it is still increasing for women

What can we learn from functional clustering of mortality data? An application to HMD data

In most cases, mortality is analysed considering summary indicators (e.~g. $e_0$ or $e^{\dagger}_0$) that either focus on a specific mortality component or pool all component-specific information in one measure. This can be a limitation, when we are interested to analyse the global evolution of mortality patterns without loosing sight of specific components evolution. The paper analyses whether there are different patterns of mortality decline among developed countries, identifying the role played by all the mortality components. We implement a cluster analysis using a Functional Data Analysis (FDA) approach, which allows us to consider age-specific mortality rather than summary measures as it analyses curves rather than scalar data. Combined with a Functional Principal Component Analysis (PCA) method it can identify what part of the curves (mortality components) is responsible for assigning one country to a specific cluster. FDA clustering is applied to 32 countries of Human Mortality Database and years 1960--2010. The results show that the evolutions of developed countries follow the same pattern (with different timing): (1) a reduction of infant mortality, (2) an increase of premature mortality, (3) a shift and compression of deaths. Some countries are following this scheme and recovering the gap with precursors, others do not show signs of recovery. Eastern Europe countries are still at stage (2) and it is not clear if and when they will enter into phase (3). All the country differences relates the different timing with which countries undergo the stages identified by clusters. The cluster analysis based on FDA allows therefore a comprehensive understanding of the patterns of mortality decline for considered countries.Comment: 18 pages, 26 figure

Compatibility of children and work preferences: two European cases.

Nowadays female participation in the labor market and motherhood are competing and the conciliation between them can be solved in different ways. In this paper we analyze children and work preferences in two European countries with very different behaviour: Italy and France. Italy shares with Spain the lowest fertility level (the TFR is around 1.25) whereas French TFR reaches the highest level (1.89) among the European Community countries. Moreover female employment rate in Italy is about 40% whereas in France reaches 70%. In these two contexts, using data from the European Community Household Panel, we model jointly fertility and female participation in the labor market, taking into account the potential correlation across unobserved heterogeneity in children and work preferences

Leaving Home Ain't Easy. A comparative longitudinal analysis of ECHP data

We use three waves of the European Community Household Panel (ECHP) to analyse the impact of employment, earnings, household income, and welfare on young adults’ decision to leave the parental home. In particular we investigate the importance of these income sources in different welfare settings. We use a simultaneous equation approach to control for unobserved heterogeneity. This is important given that the ECHP does not include retrospective information on demographic events. We find employment and income to be very important factors in the decisions of young adults in the Southern European Welfare State to leave home. For the Continental European Welfare state the results are more mixed. Employment and income are still important factors, but the effects are less clear and there are significant variations. In the Scandinavian Social Democratic Welfare State, the effect of employment and income appears negligible. The effect is also modest in the UK (the Liberal Market State), a finding we attribute to the educational system.

Economic consequences of union dissolution in Italy: findings from the European Community Household Panel

Union dissolution is a constantly increasing phenomenon across Europe—even in Italy where the prevalence of divorce has always been among the lowest. This poses several questions on the potential consequences of such an event on the families involved. Many studies show that women usually experience the worst financial consequences, although there are few analyses on Italy, given the relatively low levels of union instability. In this work we study the impact of separation on the economic well-being of men and women using data from the European Community Household Panel (ECHP), analyzed using both objective and subjective measures. By means of a matching method, we also estimate the effect of union dissolution, taking account of possible variations according to the different living arrangements adopted by ex-partners after separation. Results confirm that women experience worse economic distress than men. However, there is also a significant drop in economic well-being among non-custodial fathers who live alone after separation. In addition, it is found that income-based measures do not encapsulate all the dimensions of well-being, and therefore need to be complemented with other measures.Les ruptures d’union sont en hausse constante en Europe-même en Italie où la fréquence des divorces est parmi les plus basses. Cette tendance soulève différentes questions sur les conséquences des ruptures sur les familles concernées. De nombreuses études ont montré que c’étaient les femmes qui subissaient les conséquences financières les plus défavorables, mais la situation est mal connue en Italie, du fait de la rareté relative du phénomène. Nous analysons l’impact de la séparation sur le bien-être économique des hommes et des femmes à partir des données du Panel Européen des Ménages (ECHP), en nous appuyant à la fois sur des mesures objectives et subjectives. A l’aide d’appariements, les effets des ruptures d’unions sont estimés, en considérant une variation possible suivant le type de ménage dans lequel les anciens conjoints s’installent après la séparation. Les résultats confirment l’existence de plus grandes difficultés économiques chez les femmes. Toutefois, il y a également une chute significative de bien-être économique parmi les pères qui n’ont pas la garde des enfants et vivent seuls après la séparation. En outre, il apparaît que les mesures basées sur le revenu ne reflètent pas toutes les dimensions du bien-être, et doivent par conséquent être complétées par d’autres mesures

Economic consequences of union dissolution in Italy: findings from the European Community Household Panel

Union dissolution is a constantly increasing phenomenon across Europe – even in Italy where the prevalence of divorce has always been among the lowest. This poses several questions on the consequences which such an event can have on the families involved. Many studies show that women usually undergo the worst financial consequences, although there are few analysis on Italy, given the relatively low diffusion of union instability. In this work we study the impact of separation on the economic well-being of men and women using data from the European Community Household Panel (ECHP), analysed using both objective and subjective measures. By means of a matching method, the effect of union dissolution is also estimated considering possible interactions with living arrangements which ex-partners take after separation. Results confirm that women undergo worse economic distress than men. However, there is also a significant drop in their economic well-being also among non-custodial fathers who live alone after separation. In addition, this work suggests that monetary measures of economic well-being should be used with caution