Development and validation of an obstetric early warning system model for use in low resource settings

Background The use of obstetric early-warning-systems (EWS) has been recommended to improve timely recognition, management and early referral of women who have or are developing a critical illness. Development of such prediction models should involve a statistical combination of predictor clinical observations into a multivariable model which should be validated. No obstetric EWS has been developed and validated for low resource settings. We report on the development and validation of a simple prediction model for obstetric morbidity and mortality in resource-limited settings. Methods We performed a multivariate logistic regression analysis using a retrospective case-control analysis of secondary data with clinical indices predictive of severe maternal outcome (SMO). Cases for design and validation were randomly selected (n = 500) from 4360 women diagnosed with SMO in 42 Nigerian tertiary-hospitals between June 2012 and mid-August 2013. Controls were 1000 obstetric admissions without SMO diagnosis. We used clinical observations collected within 24 h of SMO occurrence for cases, and normal births for controls. We created a combined dataset with two controls per case, split randomly into development (n = 600) and validation (n = 900) datasets. We assessed the model’s validity using sensitivity and specificity measures and its overall performance in predicting SMO using receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves. We then fitted the final developmental model on the validation dataset and assessed its performance. Using the reference range proposed in the United Kingdom Confidential-Enquiry-into-Maternal-and-Child-Health 2007-report, we converted the model into a simple score-based obstetric EWS algorithm. Results The final developmental model comprised abnormal systolic blood pressure-(SBP > 140 mmHg or  90 mmHg), respiratory rate-(RR > 40/min), temperature-(> 38 °C), pulse rate-(PR > 120/min), caesarean-birth, and the number of previous caesarean-births. The model was 86% (95% CI 81–90) sensitive and 92%- (95% CI 89–94) specific in predicting SMO with area under ROC of 92% (95% CI 90–95%). All parameters were significant in the validation model except DBP. The model maintained good discriminatory power in the validation (n = 900) dataset (AUC 92, 95% CI 88–94%) and had good screening characteristics. Low urine output (300mls/24 h) and conscious level (prolonged unconsciousness-GCS < 8/15) were strong predictors of SMO in the univariate analysis. Conclusion We developed and validated statistical models that performed well in predicting SMO using data from a low resource settings. Based on these, we proposed a simple score based obstetric EWS algorithm with RR, temperature, systolic BP, pulse rate, consciousness level, urinary output and mode of birth that has a potential for clinical use in low-resource settings.

The Partograph for the Prevention of Obstructed Labor

Abstract: Obstructed labor is an important cause of maternal and perinatal mortality and morbidity. The partograph graphically represents key events in labor and provides an early warning system. The World Health Organization partographs are the best known partographs in low resource settings. Experiences with World Health Organization and other types of partographs in low resource settings suggest that when used with defined management protocols, this inexpensive tool can effectively monitor labor and prevent obstructed labor. However, challenges to implementation exist and these should be addressed urgently

Early warning systems in obstetrics: A systematic literature review

Introduction Several versions of Early Warning Systems (EWS) are used in obstetrics to detect and treat early clinical deterioration to avert morbidity and mortality. EWS can potentially be useful to improve the quality of care and reduce the risk of maternal mortality in resource-limited settings. We conducted a systematic literature review of published obstetric early warning systems, define their predictive accuracy for morbidity and mortality, and their effectiveness in triggering corrective actions and improving health outcomes. Methods We systematically searched for primary research articles on obstetric EWS published in peer-reviewed journals between January 1997 and March 2018 in Medline, CINAHL, SCOPUS, Science Direct, and Science Citation Index. We also searched reference lists of relevant articles and websites of professional societies. We included studies that assessed the predictive accuracy of EWS to detect clinical deterioration, or/and their effectiveness in improving clinical outcomes in obstetric inpatients. We excluded studies with a paediatric or non-obstetric adult population. Cross-sectional and qualitative studies were also excluded. We performed a narrative synthesis since the outcomes reported were heterogeneous. Results A total of 381 papers were identified, 17 of which met the inclusion criteria. Eleven of the included studies evaluated the predictive accuracy of EWS for obstetric morbidity and mortality, 5 studies assessed the effectiveness of EWS in improving clinical outcomes, while one study addressed both. Sixteen published EWS versions were reviewed, 14 of which included five basic clinical observations (pulse rate, respiratory rate, temperature, blood pressure, and consciousness level). The obstetric EWS identified had very high median (inter-quartile range) sensitivity—89% (72% to 97%) and specificity—85% (67% to 98%) but low median (inter-quartile range) positive predictive values—41% (25% to 74%) for predicting morbidity or ICU admission. Obstetric EWS had a very high accuracy in predicting death (AUROC >0.80) among critically ill obstetric patients. Obstetric EWS improves the frequency of routine vital sign observation, reduces the interval between the recording of specifically defined abnormal clinical observations and corrective clinical actions, and can potentially reduce the severity of obstetric morbidity. Conclusion Obstetric EWS are effective in predicting severe morbidity (in general obstetric population) and mortality (in critically ill obstetric patients). EWS can contribute to improved quality of care, prevent progressive obstetric morbidity and improve health outcomes. There is limited evidence of the effectiveness of EWS in reducing maternal death across all settings. Clinical parameters in most obstetric EWS versions are routinely collected in resource-limited settings, therefore implementing EWS may be feasible in such settings

Mind the Gap

Despite worldwide efforts to reduce maternal mortality, the WHO estimates that in 2017, 810 women died every day, with over two‐thirds of these deaths mainly from preventable causes related to pregnancy and childbirt

The causes of maternal mortality in adolescents in low and middle income countries: a systematic review of the literature

Background: While the main causes of maternal mortality in low and middle income countries are well understood, less is known about whether patterns for maternal deaths among adolescents are the same as for older women. This study systematically reviews the literature on cause of maternal death in adolescence. Where possible we compare the main causes for adolescents with those for older women to ascertain differences and similarity in patterns of mortality. Methods: An initial search for papers and grey literature in English, Spanish and Portuguese was carried out using a number of electronic databases based on a pre-determined search strategy. The outcome of interest was the proportion of maternal deaths amongst adolescents by cause of death. A total of 15 papers met the inclusion criteria established in the study protocol. Results: The main causes of maternal mortality in adolescents are similar to those of older women: hypertensive disorders, haemorrhage, abortion and sepsis. However there was marked heterogeneity between papers which could indicate country or regional differences in the importance of specific causes of adolescent maternal mortality. When compared with causes of death for older women, hypertensive disorders were found to be a more important cause of mortality for adolescents in a number of studies in a range of settings. In terms of indirect causes of death, there are indications that malaria is a particularly important cause of adolescent maternal mortality in some countries. Conclusion: The main causes of maternal mortality in adolescents are broadly similar to those for older women, although the findings suggest some heterogeneity between countries and regions. However there is evidence that the relative importance of specific causes may differ for this younger age group compared to women over the age of 20 years. In particular hypertensive conditions make up a larger share of maternal deaths in adolescents than older women. Further, large scale studies are needed to investigate this question further

Developing global indicators for quality of maternal and newborn care: a feasibility assessment

Objective To assess the feasibility of applying the World Health Organization’s proposed 15 indicators of quality of care for maternal and newborn health at health-facility level in low- and middle-income settings. Methods Six of the indicators are about maternal health, five are for newborn health and four are general cross-cutting indicators. We used data collected routinely in facility registers and obtained as part of facility assessments from 963 health-care facilities specializing in maternity services in 10 countries in Africa and Asia. We made a feasibility assessment of the availability of data and the clarity of indicator definitions and identified additional information and data collection processes needed to apply the proposed indicators in real-life settings. Findings Of the indicators evaluated, 10 were clearly defined, of which four could be applied directly in the field and six would require revisions to operationalize them. The other five indicators require further development, with one of them being ready for implementation by using information readily available in registers and four requiring further information before deployment. For indicators that measure coverage of care or availability of services or products, there is a need to further strengthen measurement. Information on emergency obstetric complications was not recorded in a standard manner, thus limiting the reliability of the information. Conclusion While some of the proposed indicators can already be applied, other indicators need to be refined or will need additional sources and methods of data collection to be applied in real-world settings

Proportion of neonatal readmission attributed to length of stay for childbirth: a population-based cohort study

Objective: Most literature on length of stay (LOS) for childbirth focuses on ‘early’ discharge as opposed to ‘optimal’ time of discharge and has conflicting results due to heterogeneous definitions of ‘early’ discharge and differing eligibility criteria for these programmes. We aimed to determine the LOS associated with the lowest neonatal readmission rate following childbirth by examining the incidence pattern of neonatal readmission for different LOS using the Kitagawa decomposition. Design: Retrospective cohort study using administrative hospitalisation data. Setting: Canada (excluding Quebec) from 2003 to 2010. Patients: Term, singleton live births without congenital anomalies. Interventions: LOS for childbirth. Main outcome measure: Neonatal readmissions within 30 days of birth. Results: 1 875 322 live births were included. Neonatal LOS peaked at day 1 (47.3%) after vaginal birth and day 3 (49.3%) following caesarean section; 4.2% of infants were readmitted following vaginal birth and 2.2% after caesarean section. In 2008–2010, most readmissions occurred among infants discharged in the first 2 days (83.8%) following a vaginal birth and among infants discharged in the first 3 days (81.7%) following a caesarean birth. Readmissions increased from 4.1% in 2003–2005 to 4.6% in 2008–2010 among vaginal births and from 2.0% to 2.4% among caesarean births and occurred mostly due to changes in the day-specific readmission rates and not due to reductions in LOS. Conclusions: Patterns of readmission suggest that readmission rates are lowest following a 1–2-day stay following a vaginal birth and a 2–4-day stay following a caesarean birth given the outpatient support in the community

Building capacities of Auxiliary Nurse Midwives (ANMs) through a complementary mix of directed and selfdirected skill-based learning—A case study in Pune District, Western India

Auxiliary nurse midwives (ANMs) play a pivotal role in provision of maternal and newborn health at primary level in India. Effective in-service training is crucial for upgrading their knowledge and skills for providing appropriate healthcare services. This paper aims at assessing the effectiveness of a complementary mix of directed and self-directed learning approaches for building essential maternal and newborn health-related skills of ANMs in rural Pune District, India. Methods: During directed learning, the master trainers trained ANMs through interactive lectures and skill demonstrations. Improvement and retention of knowledge and skills and feedback were assessed quantitatively using descriptive statistics. Significant differences at the 0.05 level using the Kruskal-Wallis test were analysed to compare improvement across age, years of experience, and previous training received. The self-directed learning approach fulfilled their learning needs through skills mall, exposure visits, newsletter, and participation in conference. Qualitative data were analysed thematically for perspectives and experiences of stakeholders. The Kirkpatrick model was used for evaluating the results. Results: Directed and self-directed learning was availed by 348 and 125 rural ANMs, respectively. Through the directed learning, ANMs improved their clinical skills like maternal and newborn resuscitation and eclampsia management. Less work experience showed relatively higher improvement in skills, but not in knowledge. 56.6% ANMs either improved or retained their immediate post-training scores after 3 months. Self-directed learning helped them for experience sharing, problem-solving, active engagement through skill demonstrations, and formal presentations. The conducive learning environment helped in reinforcement of knowledge and skills and in building confidence. This intervention could evaluate application of skills into practice to a limited extent. Conclusions: In India, there are some ongoing initiatives for building skills of the ANMs like skilled birth attendance and training in skills lab. However, such a complementary mix of skill-based ‘directed’ and ‘self-directed’ learning approaches could be a plausible model for building capacities of health workforce. In view of the transforming healthcare delivery system in India and the significant responsibility that rests on the shoulder of ANMs, a transponder mechanism to implement skill building exercises at regular intervals through such innovative approaches should be a priority

Application of the ICD-PM classification system to stillbirth in four sub-Saharan African countries.

OBJECTIVE:To identify the causes and categories of stillbirth using the Application of ICD-10 to Deaths during the Perinatal Period (ICD-PM). METHODS:Prospective, observational study in 12 hospitals across Kenya, Malawi, Sierra Leone and Zimbabwe. Healthcare providers (HCPs) assigned cause of stillbirth following perinatal death audit. Cause of death was classified using the ICD-PM classification system. FINDINGS:1267 stillbirths met the inclusion criteria. The stillbirth rate (per 1000 births) was 20.3 in Malawi (95% CI: 15.0-42.8), 34.7 in Zimbabwe (95% CI: 31.8-39.2), 38.8 in Kenya (95% CI: 33.9-43.3) and 118.1 in Sierra Leone (95% CI: 115.0-121.2). Of the included cases, 532 (42.0%) were antepartum deaths, 643 (50.7%) were intrapartum deaths and 92 cases (7.3%) could not be categorised by time of death. Overall, only 16% of stillbirths could be classified by fetal cause of death. Infection (A2 category) was the most commonly identified cause for antepartum stillbirths (8.6%). Acute intrapartum events (I3) accounted for the largest proportion of intrapartum deaths (31.3%). In contrast, for 76% of stillbirths, an associated maternal condition could be identified. The M1 category (complications of placenta, cord and membranes) was the most common category assigned for antepartum deaths (31.1%), while complications of labour and delivery (M3) accounted for the highest proportion of intrapartum deaths (38.4%). Overall, the proportion of cases for which no fetal or maternal cause could be identified was 32.6% for antepartum deaths, 8.1% for intrapartum deaths and 17.4% for cases with unknown time of death. CONCLUSION:Clinical care and documentation of this care require strengthening. Diagnostic protocols and guidelines should be introduced more widely to obtain better data on cause of death, especially antepartum stillbirths. Revision of ICD-PM should consider an additional category to help accommodate stillbirths with unknown time of death