Evaluation of clinical prediction models (part 2): how to undertake an external validation study

External validation studies are an important but often neglected part of prediction model research. In this article, the second in a series on model evaluation, Riley and colleagues explain what an external validation study entails and describe the key steps involved, from establishing a high quality dataset to evaluating a model’s predictive performance and clinical usefulness

Integrative analyses identify modulators of response to neoadjuvant aromatase inhibitors in patients with early breast cancer

Introduction Aromatase inhibitors (AIs) are a vital component of estrogen receptor positive (ER+) breast cancer treatment. De novo and acquired resistance, however, is common. The aims of this study were to relate patterns of copy number aberrations to molecular and proliferative response to AIs, to study differences in the patterns of copy number aberrations between breast cancer samples pre- and post-AI neoadjuvant therapy, and to identify putative biomarkers for resistance to neoadjuvant AI therapy using an integrative analysis approach. Methods Samples from 84 patients derived from two neoadjuvant AI therapy trials were subjected to copy number profiling by microarray-based comparative genomic hybridisation (aCGH, n = 84), gene expression profiling (n = 47), matched pre- and post-AI aCGH (n = 19 pairs) and Ki67-based AI-response analysis (n = 39). Results Integrative analysis of these datasets identified a set of nine genes that, when amplified, were associated with a poor response to AIs, and were significantly overexpressed when amplified, including CHKA, LRP5 and SAPS3. Functional validation in vitro, using cell lines with and without amplification of these genes (SUM44, MDA-MB134-VI, T47D and MCF7) and a model of acquired AI-resistance (MCF7-LTED) identified CHKA as a gene that when amplified modulates estrogen receptor (ER)-driven proliferation, ER/estrogen response element (ERE) transactivation, expression of ER-regulated genes and phosphorylation of V-AKT murine thymoma viral oncogene homolog 1 (AKT1). Conclusions These data provide a rationale for investigation of the role of CHKA in further models of de novo and acquired resistance to AIs, and provide proof of concept that integrative genomic analyses can identify biologically relevant modulators of AI response

Targeting tumour re-wiring by triple blockade of mTORC1, epidermal growth factor, and oestrogen receptor signalling pathways in endocrine-resistant breast cancer

Background Endocrine therapies are the mainstay of treatment for oestrogen receptor (ER)-positive (ER+) breast cancer (BC). However, resistance remains problematic largely due to enhanced cross-talk between ER and growth factor pathways, circumventing the need for steroid hormones. Previously, we reported the anti-proliferative effect of everolimus (RAD001-mTORC1 inhibitor) with endocrine therapy in resistance models; however, potential routes of escape from treatment via ERBB2/3 signalling were observed. We hypothesised that combined targeting of three cellular nodes (ER, ERBB, and mTORC1) may provide enhanced long-term clinical utility. Methods A panel of ER+ BC cell lines adapted to long-term oestrogen deprivation (LTED) and expressing ESR1wt or ESR1Y537S, modelling acquired resistance to an aromatase-inhibitor (AI), were treated in vitro with a combination of RAD001 and neratinib (pan-ERBB inhibitor) in the presence or absence of oestradiol (E2), tamoxifen (4-OHT), or fulvestrant (ICI182780). End points included proliferation, cell signalling, cell cycle, and effect on ER-mediated transactivation. An in-vivo model of AI resistance was treated with monotherapies and combinations to assess the efficacy in delaying tumour progression. RNA-seq analysis was performed to identify changes in global gene expression as a result of the indicated therapies. Results Here, we show RAD001 and neratinib (pan-ERBB inhibitor) caused a concentration-dependent decrease in proliferation, irrespective of the ESR1 mutation status. The combination of either agent with endocrine therapy further reduced proliferation but the maximum effect was observed with a triple combination of RAD001, neratinib, and endocrine therapy. In the absence of oestrogen, RAD001 caused a reduction in ER-mediated transcription in the majority of the cell lines, which associated with a decrease in recruitment of ER to an oestrogen-response element on the TFF1 promoter. Contrastingly, neratinib increased both ER-mediated transactivation and ER recruitment, an effect reduced by the addition of RAD001. In-vivo analysis of an LTED model showed the triple combination of RAD001, neratinib, and fulvestrant was most effective at reducing tumour volume. Gene set enrichment analysis revealed that the addition of neratinib negated the epidermal growth factor (EGF)/EGF receptor feedback loops associated with RAD001. Conclusions Our data support the combination of therapies targeting ERBB2/3 and mTORC1 signalling, together with fulvestrant, in patients who relapse on endocrine therapy and retain a functional ER

Coupling of alpha(1)-Adrenoceptors to ERK1/2 in the Human Prostate

Introduction: alpha(1)-Adrenoceptors are considered critical for the regulation of prostatic smooth muscle tone. However, previous studies suggested further alpha(1)-adrenoceptor functions besides contraction. Here, we investigated whether alpha(1)-adrenoceptors in the human prostate may activate extracellular signal-regulated kinases (ERK1/2). Methods: Prostate tissues from patients undergoing radical prostatectomy were stimulated in vitro. Activation of ERK1/2 was assessed by Western blot analysis. Expression of ERK1/2 was studied by immunohistochemistry. The effect of ERK1/2 inhibition by U0126 on phenylephrine-induced contraction was studied in organ-bath experiments. Results: Stimulation of human prostate tissue with noradrenaline (30 mu M) or phenylephrine (10 mu M) resulted in ERK activation. This was reflected by increased levels of phosphorylated ERK1/2. Expression of ERK1/2 in the prostate was observed in smooth muscle cells. Incubation of prostate tissue with U0126 (30 mu M) resulted in ERK1/2 inhibition. Dose-dependent phenylephrine-induced contraction of prostate tissue was not modulated by U0126. Conclusions: alpha(1)-Adrenoceptors in the human prostate are coupled to ERK1/2. This may partially explain previous observations suggesting a role of alpha(1)-adrenoceptors in the regulation of prostate growth. Copyright (C) 2011 S. Karger AG, Base

Analysis of the genomic homologous recombination in Theilovirus based on complete genomes

At present, Theilovirus is considered to comprise four distinct serotypes, including Theiler's murine encephalomyelitis virus, Vilyuisk human encephalomyelitis virus, Thera virus, and Saffold virus. So far, there is no systematical study that investigated the genomic recombination of Theilovirus. The present study performed the phylogenetic and recombination analysis of Theilovirus over the complete genomes. Seven potentially significant recombination events were identified. However, according to the strains information and references related to the recombinants and their parental strains, four of the recombination events might happen non-naturally. These results will provide valuable hints for future research on evolution and antigenic variability of Theilovirus

Analysis of factors influencing the ultrasonic fetal weight estimation

Objective: The aim of our study was the evaluation of sonographic fetal weight estimation taking into consideration 9 of the most important factors of influence on the precision of the estimation. Methods: We analyzed 820 singleton pregnancies from 22 to 42 weeks of gestational age. We evaluated 9 different factors that potentially influence the precision of sonographic weight estimation ( time interval between estimation and delivery, experts vs. less experienced investigator, fetal gender, gestational age, fetal weight, maternal BMI, amniotic fluid index, presentation of the fetus, location of the placenta). Finally, we compared the results of the fetal weight estimation of the fetuses with poor scanning conditions to those presenting good scanning conditions. Results: Of the 9 evaluated factors that may influence accuracy of fetal weight estimation, only a short interval between sonographic weight estimation and delivery (0-7 vs. 8-14 days) had a statistically significant impact. Conclusion: Of all known factors of influence, only a time interval of more than 7 days between estimation and delivery had a negative impact on the estimation

RP-LC and HPTLC Methods for the Determination of Olmesartan Medoxomil and Hydrochlorothiazide in Combined Tablet Dosage Forms

Two new, rapid, precise, accurate and specific chromatographic methods were described for the simultaneous determination of olmesartan medoxomil and hydrochlorothiazide in combined tablet dosage forms. The first method was based on reversed phase liquid chromatography using an Eurosphere 100 RP C18 column (250 × 4.6 mm ID, 5 μm). The mobile phase was methanol–0.05% o-phosphoric acid (60:40 v/v) at a flow rate of 1.0 mL min−1. Commercially available tablets and laboratory mixtures containing both drugs were assayed and detected using a UV detector at 270 nm. The second method involved silica gel 60 F254 high performance thin layer chromatography and densitometric detection at 254 nm using acetonitrile–ethyl acetate–glacial acid (7:3:0.4 v/v/v) as the mobile phase. Calibration curves ranged between 200–600 and 125–375 ng spot−1 for olmesartan and hydrochlorothiazide, respectively

A Spatial Analysis of Rift Valley Fever Virus Seropositivity in Domestic Ruminants in Tanzania

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is an acute arthropod-borne viral zoonotic disease primarily occurring in Africa. Since RVF-like disease was reported in Tanzania in 1930, outbreaks of the disease have been reported mainly from the eastern ecosystem of the Great Rift Valley. This cross-sectional study was carried out to describe the variation in RVF virus (RVFV) seropositivity in domestic ruminants between selected villages in the eastern and western Rift Valley ecosystems in Tanzania, and identify potential risk factors. Three study villages were purposively selected from each of the two Rift Valley ecosystems. Serum samples from randomly selected domestic ruminants (n = 1,435) were tested for the presence of specific immunoglobulin G (IgG) and M (IgM), using RVF enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay methods. Mixed effects logistic regression modelling was used to investigate the association between potential risk factors and RVFV seropositivity. The overall RVFV seroprevalence (n = 1,435) in domestic ruminants was 25.8% and species specific seroprevalence was 29.7%, 27.7% and 22.0% in sheep (n = 148), cattle (n = 756) and goats (n = 531), respectively. The odds of seropositivity were significantly higher in animals sampled from the villages in the eastern than those in the western Rift Valley ecosystem (OR = 1.88, CI: 1.41, 2.51; p<0.001), in animals sampled from villages with soils of good than those with soils of poor water holding capacity (OR = 1.97; 95% CI: 1.58, 3.02; p< 0.001), and in animals which had been introduced than in animals born within the herd (OR = 5.08, CI: 2.74, 9.44; p< 0.001). Compared with animals aged 1-2 years, those aged 3 and 4-5 years had 3.40 (CI: 2.49, 4.64; p< 0.001) and 3.31 (CI: 2.27, 4.82, p< 0.001) times the odds of seropositivity. The findings confirm exposure to RVFV in all the study villages, but with a higher prevalence in the study villages from the eastern Rift Valley ecosystem