Electrification pathways for Kenya–linking spatial electrification analysis and medium to long term energy planning

In September 2015 UN announced 17 Sustainable Development goals (SDG) from which goal number 7 envisions universal access to modern energy services for all by 2030. In Kenya only about 46% of the population currently has access to electricity. This paper analyses hypothetical scenarios, and selected implications, investigating pathways that would allow the country to reach its electrification targets by 2030. Two modelling tools were used for the purposes of this study, namely OnSSET and OSeMOSYS. The tools were soft-linked in order to capture both the spatial and temporal dynamics of their nature. Two electricity demand scenarios were developed representing low and high end user consumption goals respectively. Indicatively, results show that geothermal, coal, hydro and natural gas would consist the optimal energy mix for the centralized national grid. However, in the case of the low demand scenario a high penetration of stand-Alone systems is evident in the country, reaching out to approximately 47% of the electrified population. Increasing end user consumption leads to a shift in the optimal technology mix, with higher penetration of mini-grid technologies and grid extension

Corrigendum: Electrification pathways for Kenya–linking spatial electrification analysis and medium to long term energy planning (2017 Environ. Res. Lett. 12 095008)

We have identified input values that were not harmonized with the paper and have therefore submitted this corrigendum. Qualitatively, there are no major differences between the two versions, and the insights generated are unchanged. However, part of the results, figures and discussion needed to be updated based on the new findings. We present those in the form of a corrigendum. In the model runs there were input parameters that were not harmonized with the published paper as seen in annex in table 1. Therefore, to amend the incurred values, we have re-run the model and updated the following sections of the paper

Techno-economic data and assumptions for long-term energy systems modelling in Viet Nam

Viet Nam is at a critical juncture in planning for its future energy mix due to its fast-growing economy and recent climate commitments. Robust modelling analyses examining the potential and practical energy mix alternatives are therefore key in providing key stakeholders with critical information on energy policy decision-making. The challenge is that a large volume of data is required to accurately model various energy pathways at the national scale. This data note, therefore, aims to bridge the current data gap by providing key information on input data and assumptions for long-term energy planning in Viet Nam. Historical and/or projected data regarding electricity generation and consumption, electricity imports and exports, fuel prices, emissions, refineries, power transmission and distribution, electricity generation technologies, and renewable energy potential and reserves for the years 2015 to 2050 are described in this article

The role of open access data in geospatial electrification planning and the achievement of SDG7. An OnSSET-based case study for Malawi

Achieving universal access to electricity is a development challenge many countries are currently battling with. The advancement of information technology has, among others, vastly improved the availability of geographic data and information. That, in turn, has had a considerable impact on tracking progress as well as better informing decision making in the field of electrification. This paper provides an overview of open access geospatial data and GIS based electrification models aiming to support SDG7, while discussing their role in answering difficult policy questions. Upon those, an updated version of the Open Source Spatial Electrification Toolkit (OnSSET-2018) is introduced and tested against the case study of Malawi. At a cost of $1.83 billion the baseline scenario indicates that off-grid PV is the least cost electrification option for 67.4$1.65–7.78 billion

Land, energy and water resource management and its impact on GHG emissions, electricity supply and food production- Insights from a Ugandan case study

Despite the excitement around the nexus between land, energy and water resource systems, policies enacted to govern and use these resources are still formulated in isolation, without considering the interdependencies. Using a Ugandan case study, we highlight the impact that one policy change in the energy system will have on other resource systems. We focus on deforestation, long term electricity supply planning, crop production, water consumption, land-use change and climate impacting greenhouse gas(GHG) trajectories. In this study, an open-source integrated modelling framework is used to map the ripple effects of a policy change related to reducing biomass consumption. We find that, despite the reduction in deforestation of woodlands and forests, the GHG emissions in the power sector are expected to increase in between 2040–2050, owing to higher fossil fuel usage. This policy change is also likely to increase the cost of electricity generation, which in turn affects the agricultural land types. There is an unforeseen shift from irrigated to rainfed type land due to higher electricity costs. With this integrated model setup for Uganda, we highlight the need for integrated policy planning that takes into consideration the interlinkages between the resource systems and cross propagation effects

Land, energy and water resource management and its impact on GHG emissions, electricity supply and food production- Insights from a Ugandan case study

Despite the excitement around the nexus between land, energy and water resource systems, policies enacted to govern and use these resources are still formulated in isolation, without considering the interdependencies. Using a Ugandan case study, we highlight the impact that one policy change in the energy system will have on other resource systems. We focus on deforestation, long term electricity supply planning, crop production, water consumption, land-use change and climate impacting greenhouse gas(GHG) trajectories. In this study, an open-source integrated modelling framework is used to map the ripple effects of a policy change related to reducing biomass consumption. We find that, despite the reduction in deforestation of woodlands and forests, the GHG emissions in the power sector are expected to increase in between 2040–2050, owing to higher fossil fuel usage. This policy change is also likely to increase the cost of electricity generation, which in turn affects the agricultural land types. There is an unforeseen shift from irrigated to rainfed type land due to higher electricity costs. With this integrated model setup for Uganda, we highlight the need for integrated policy planning that takes into consideration the interlinkages between the resource systems and cross propagation effects

Development of functionalities for improved storage modelling in OSeMOSYS

Integrated systems modelling has provided insights on pathways for the sustainable use of energy, land and water resources. Among the existing modelling tools, some have been widely used to engage policy makers, due to their open source and basic structure. Yet, in the attempt of simplifying the representation of integrated systems, essential features significantly influencing the dynamics between systems may have been left aside. This study proposes an improved formulation of the Open Source Energy Modelling System (OSeMOSYS), for a better representation of energy and resource storage processes. In particular, the focus of this work is the storage losses introduction for both dams for hydropower generation and batteries for electricity storage. The modifications were applied to a case study representing key features of both a developed and developing country. The results highlight that, with low additional computational effort, a much more accurate representation of the storage technologies can be achieved. Despite the introduction of losses, renewable energy technologies tend to have a high penetration in the future energy mix thanks to storage applications that remedy their unpredictability and seasonality

Supporting a self-sustained energy planning ecosystem: Lessons from Sierra Leone

The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development calls for the achievement of universal access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all. To fulfil this ambition, least developed countries need to mobilise enormous investments in a short amount of time. Deciding the extent, priority and timing of these investments is a hard task, for which many governments currently lack internal resources. Development Partners are supporting these efforts by contributing to the national energy planning ecosystems. In this comment, we focus on the role of Development Partners. We reflect on the approach to support strategic energy planning they took so far and on how they may improve it to further – and more effectively - support countries where demand arises. We take the example of one recent capacity development effort in Sierra Leone. We highlight that academia is one pillar of the national energy planning ecosystem, and conclude that academic partnerships play a critical role in changing the paradigm from short-term capacity transfer to a more sustainable capacity development. Formalised academic partnerships may increase the retention of capacity and support national planning ecosystems in becoming more self-sustained. Increased knowledge sharing on best open practices for energy data and model infrastructure may further support the ecosystem by improving the communication between academia, government and utilities

Technoeconomic data adopted for the development of a long-term electricity supply model for the Hashmite Kingdome of Jordan

Electrical generation in Jordan currently relies on imported fossil fuels. In the past, most imported fossil fuels were subsidised by neighbouring countries through grants and aid. This has led to a regulated market, with subsidised low-cost electrical energy consumers, and the government being the sole buyer and seller of electricity. With the ageing of the national electrical infrastructure, political instability in the region, and lack of funds for direct investment, other options needed to be pursued. Long term Power Purchase Agreements (PPA) were granted to Independent Power Producers (IPP) to encourage investment in capacity and infrastructure. In addition, long-term fuel contracts were signed to secure steady flow of primary fuel sources. Over the past few years, renewable energy penetration has increased rapidly, but without proper planning or taking into consideration long term PPA and fuel contracts. Data in regard to the current infrastructure, renewable energy technology, signed energy commitments and system operation assumptions are described in this article, which may be used for modelling and analysis. The Data were collected from annual reports from the different energy related entities in Jordan

Supplementary information files for Supporting a self-sustained energy planning ecosystem: Lessons from Sierra Leone

Supplementary files for article Supporting a self-sustained energy planning ecosystem: Lessons from Sierra Leone The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development calls for the achievement of universal access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all. To fulfil this ambition, least developed countries need to mobilise enormous investments in a short amount of time. Deciding the extent, priority and timing of these investments is a hard task, for which many governments currently lack internal resources. Development Partners are supporting these efforts by contributing to the national energy planning ecosystems. In this comment, we focus on the role of Development Partners. We reflect on the approach to support strategic energy planning they took so far and on how they may improve it to further – and more effectively - support countries where demand arises. We take the example of one recent capacity development effort in Sierra Leone. We highlight that academia is one pillar of the national energy planning ecosystem, and conclude that academic partnerships play a critical role in changing the paradigm from short-term capacity transfer to a more sustainable capacity development. Formalised academic partnerships may increase the retention of capacity and support national planning ecosystems in becoming more self-sustained. Increased knowledge sharing on best open practices for energy data and model infrastructure may further support the ecosystem by improving the communication between academia, government and utilities. </p