Human Capital and Fertility in Germany after 1990: Evidence from a Multi-Spell Model

We analyze the timing of birth of the first three children based on German panel data (GSOEP) within a hazard rate framework. A random effects estimator is used to accommodate correlation across spells. We consider the role of human capital – approximated by a Mincer-type regression – and its gender-specific effects on postponement of parenthood and possible recuperation at higherorder births. An advantage of the use of panel data in this context consists in its prospective nature, so that determinants of fertility can be measured when at risk rather than ex-post, thus helping to reduce the risk of reverse causality. The analysis finds evidence for strong recuperation effects, i.e., women with greater human capital endowments follow, on average, a different birth history trajectory, but with negligible curtailment of completed fertility.fertility, human capital, event history analysis

Decomposing R2 with the Owen value

We provide an axiomatization-based justification for applying the Owen value to decompose R2 in OLS models if prior knowledge can be used to form groups of regressor variables. The assumptions made by the axioms are not only plausible with respect to the variables but also clarify the meaning of the exogenous grouping of variables. --Shapley value,Owen value,OLS,variance decomposition,German Socio-Economic Panel

The transition to Post-industrial BMI values among US children

Background: The trend in the BMI values of US children has not been estimated very convincingly because of the absence of longitudinal data. Our object is to estimate time series of BMI values by birth cohorts instead of measurement years. Methods: We use five regression models to estimate the BMI trends of non-Hispanic US-born black and white children and adolescents ages 2-19 between 1941 and 2004. Results: The increase in BMIZ values during the period considered was 1.3σ (95% CI: 1.16σ; 1.44σ) among black girls, 0.8σ for black boys, 0.7σ for white boys, and 0.6σ for white girls. This translates into an increase in BMI values of some 5.6, 3.3, 2.4, and 1.5 units respectively. While the increase in BMI values started among the birth cohorts of the 1940s among black girls, the rate of increase tended to accelerate among all four ethnic/gender groups born in the mid-1950s – early-1960s. Conclusion: Some regional evidence leads to the conjecture that the spread of automobiles and radios affected the BMI values of boys already in the interwar period. We suppose that the changes in lifestyle associated with the labor saving technological developments of the 20th century are associated with the weight gains observed. The increased popularity of television viewing was most prominently associated with the contemporaneous acceleration in BMI gain.BMI; BMIZ; US; children; youth; adolescents; NHANES; obesity epidemic; overweight

The Transition to Post-industrial BMI Values Among US Children

In our opinion, the trend in the BMI values of US children has not been estimated accurately. We use five models to estimate the BMI trends of non-Hispanic US-born black and white children and adolescents ages 2-19 born 1941-2006 on the basis of all NHES and NHANES data sets. We also use some historical BMI values for comparison. The increase in BMIZ values during the period considered was on average 1.3σ (95% CI: 1.16σ; 1.44σ) among black girls, 0.8σ for black boys, 0.7σ for white boys, and 0.6σ for white girls. This translates into an increase in BMI values of some 5.6, 3.3, 2.4, and 1.5 units respectively. While the increase in BMI values started among the birth cohorts of the 1940s among black females, the rate of increase tended to accelerate among all four groups born in the mid-1950s to early-1960s with the contemporaneous spread of TV viewing. The rate of increase levelled off somewhat thereafter. There is some indication that among black boys and white girls born after c. 1990 adiposity has remained unchanged or perhaps even declined. The affects of the IT revolution of the last two decades of the century is less evident. Some regional evidence leads to the speculation that the spread of automobiles and radios affected the BMI values of boys already in the interwar period. We infer that the incremental weight increases are associated with the labor-saving technological developments of the 20th century which brought about many faceted cultural and nutritional revolutions.

Koexistenz von Arbeitslosigkeit und Fachkräftemangel? Befunde für Thüringen

In the light of favourable business conditions during the previous years, business organizations have repeatedly cautioned about a skilled labour shortage that could constrain future development of enterprises. While shortages may be typical of phases of economic expansion, the skilled labour shortage might turn into a permanent phenomenon if one takes into account the shrinking of the working-age population. The demographic transition occurs at an especially rapid pace in Eastern Germany. At the same time, this region still exhibits high rates of chronic unemployment, which renders the possibility of a skilled labour shortage questionable. We focus on the federal state of Thuringia and investigate two questions. Firstly, we evaluate to what extent occupation-specific bottlenecks exist both in Germany and in Thuringia, using a set of criteria based on official labour market statistics. We find evidence of high utilization of labour supply in technical and metalworking professions in Germany. In the majority of these occupations, the same is true for Thuringia. Hence, a high level of unemployment and skilled labour shortage may coexist, at least in a transition phase. Secondly, we investigate whether companies in Thuringia already expect problems when searching for skilled personnel in the near future. For this purpose, the IWH has conducted a survey among approximately 1 000 companies. It turns out that 61% of the interviewed companies anticipate such problems, with statistically significant differences with respect to the companies’ characteristics. In addition, we discuss selected policies that companies plan to implement in the field of human resource management when anticipating problems.

Will There Be a Shortage of Skilled Labor? An East German Perspective to 2015

We analyze the supply and demand of skilled labor in an East German federal state, Thuringia. This state has been facing high unemployment in the course of economic transformation and experiences population ageing and shrinking more rapidly than most West European regions. In a first step, we use extrapolation techniques to forecast labor supply and demand for the period 2009-2015, disaggregated by type of qualification. The analysis does not corroborate the notion of an imminent skilled-labor shortage but provides hints for a tightening labor market for skilled workers. In the second step, we ask firms about their appraisal of future recruitment conditions, and both current and planned strategies in the context of personnel management. The majority of firms plan to expand further education efforts and hire older workers. The study closes with policy recommendations to prevent occupational mismatch.demographic change, labor demand for high-skilled workers, labor force forecast, vocational training

Im Fokus: Zeitarbeit im ostdeutschen Verarbeitenden Gewerbe

Neben „klassischen“ Beschäftigungsverhältnissen zwischen Arbeitgebern und Arbeitnehmern gewinnen mit Zeitarbeit auch Dreiecksbeziehungen zunehmende Bedeutung am Arbeitsmarkt. Ein Personal-Leasing-Unternehmen fungiert hier als Intermediär am Arbeitsmarkt und vermietet gewerbsmäßig seine Beschäftigten an andere Unternehmen. Als „Kollegen auf Zeit“ sind sie dann an die Weisungen des entleihenden Unternehmens gebunden und erbringen dort ihre Arbeitsleistung. Zwar umfasste diese Form der Arbeitsorganisation Mitte 2007 sowohl in Ost- als auch in Westdeutschland jeweils erst rund 2% der Erwerbstätigen (bzw. 140 000 Personen in Ostdeutschland einschließlich Berlin), jedoch waren die Zuwachsraten beachtlich: Unter den eine Million zusätzlichen Beschäftigungsverhältnissen, die zwischen 2003 und 2007 in Deutschland entstanden sind, entfielen allein 40% auf das Konto von Zeitarbeit. Unternehmen mit Personalbedarf eröffnet sie die Möglichkeit, ohne aufwendiges Screening von Bewerbern kurzfristige Spitzen in den Auftragseingängen abzuarbeiten, gerade in einem stark regulierten Arbeitsmarkt.

Modelling Maritime Trade Systems: Agent-Based Simulation and Medieval History

Maritime trade grew enormously in Europe after c. 1100 AD, thereby contributing much to the European economic take-off commonly considered as the “Commercial Revolution of the Middle Ages.” In this article, determinants of both the formation of the Hanse’s network-based system of trade in Northern Europe and its later dissolution are analysed using a multi-agent model. Findings are connected to the discussion in institutional economics and economic history concerning the importance of institutional developments in long-distance trade for economic growth in medieval Europe, the efficiency of self-enforcing institutions, and the divergence of institutional arrangements in medieval maritime trade. Finally, both potentials and limitations of agent-based models for historical research are discussed

Der Fachkräfteneubedarf in Thüringen bis 2015: Prognose und Handlungsoptionen

We forecast the number of qualified workers required in the German federal state Thuringia until 2015 on the basis of the manpower requirement approach. Disaggregated by types of qualification, this method distinguishes between two sources of recruitment requirements: replacement demand for old workers and expansion demand to reflect structural changes of industry sectors and productivity growth. Both components are calculated from register data on employment covered by social security. Relative to current employment, recruitment requirements vary across occupations. A comparison of recruitment requirements for medium-skilled workers with the structure of vocational training reveals potential mismatch between demand and supply of medium-skilled labor in the near future if the composition of apprenticeship programs remains unchanged. The study closes with policy recommendations to prevent occupational mismatch.

Coalition bargaining in repeated games

We consider an intertemporal game-theoretic framework in which different coalitions interact repeatedly over time. Both the terms of trade and the endogenous cooperation structure arising in this setup are characterized, in a protocol-free manner, provided that just three natural conditions on the outcome are satisfied: (C1) A coalition is formed with positive probability if, and only if, the shares obtained in this case by its members weakly exceed their respective share expectations. (C2) Each matched coalition distributes the entire surplus among its members. (C3) Members of any coalition are treated symmetrically with respect to their share expectations when the surplus of this coalition is distributed. Our analysis primarily focuses on the limit scenario where the game ends each date with vanishing probability. We show that, in this case, the cooperation structure and the shares are unique. In an application to trade networks, we show that, in a complete network, a unique price arises and agents specialize in either buying or selling. In an incomplete network, on the other hand, transactions occur, generally, at multiple prices and some agents become arbitrageurs that buy and sell at different prices