Understanding jumping to conclusions in patients with persecutory delusions: working memory and intolerance of uncertainty

Background. Persecutory delusions are a key psychotic experience. A reasoning style known as ‘jumping to conclusions’ (JTC) – limited information gathering before reaching certainty in decision making – has been identified as a contributory factor in the occurrence of delusions. The cognitive processes that underpin JTC need to be determined in order to develop effective interventions for delusions. In the current study two alternative perspectives were tested: that JTC partially results from impairment in information-processing capabilities and that JTC is a motivated strategy to avoid uncertainty.Method. A group of 123 patients with persistent persecutory delusions completed assessments of JTC (the 60:40 beads task), IQ, working memory, intolerance of uncertainty, and psychiatric symptoms. Patients showing JTC were compared with patients not showing JTC.Results. A total of 30 (24%) patients with delusions showed JTC. There were no differences between patients who did and did not jump to conclusions in overall psychopathology. Patients who jumped to conclusions had poorer working memory performance, lower IQ, lower intolerance of uncertainty and lower levels of worry.Working memory and worry independently predicted the presence of JTC.Conclusions. Hasty decision making in patients with delusions may partly arise from difficulties in keeping information in mind. Interventions for JTC are likely to benefit from addressing working memory performance, while in vivo techniques for patients with delusions will benefit from limiting the demands on working memory. The study provides little evidence for a contribution to JTC from top down motivational beliefs about uncertainty

Mapping of water-related ecosystem services in the uMngeni catchment using a daily time-step hydrological model for prioritisation of ecological infrastructure investment – Part 1: Context and modelling approach

South Africa is a semi-arid country which frequently faces water shortages, and experienced a severe drought in the 2016 and 2017 rainfall seasons. Government is under pressure to continue to deliver clean water to the growing population at a high assurance of supply. Studies now show that the delivery of water may be sustained not only through built infrastructure such as dams and pipelines, but also through investment in ecological infrastructure (EI). A daily time-step hydrological model was used to map areas which should be prioritised for protection or rehabilitation to sustain the delivery of water-related ecosystem services within the uMngeni catchment. We focused on three water-related ecosystem services, i.e.: water supply, sustained baseflow, erosion control/avoidance of excessive sediment losses. The two key types of degradation were modelled, namely, overgrazing and the invasion of upland areas by Black Wattle (Acacia mearnsii). This, Part 1 of a paper in 2 parts, provides a discussion on the role of EI in delivering water-related ecosystem services, describes the motivation for the study, and the methods used in modelling and mapping the catchment. The results of this modelling exercise are presented in Part 2, which also explores and illustrates the potential hydrological benefits of rehabilitation and protection of EI in the uMngeni Catchment.Keywords: water, ecosystem services, hydrological modelling, ecological infrastructure, water securit

Assessment of cognitive safety in clinical drug development

Cognitive impairment is increasingly recognised as an important potential adverse effect of medication. However, many drug development programmes do not incorporate sensitive cognitive measurements. Here, we review the rationale for cognitive safety assessment, and explain several basic methodological principles for measuring cognition during clinical drug development, including study design and statistical analysis, from Phase I through to postmarketing. The crucial issue of how cognition should be assessed is emphasized, especially the sensitivity of measurement. We also consider how best to interpret the magnitude of any identified effects, including comparison with benchmarks. We conclude by discussing strategies for the effective communication of cognitive risks

Robotic Partial Nephrectomy Using Robotic Bulldog Clamps

Robotically applying bulldog clamps was found to be a safe and feasible method of hilar occlusion during robotic partial nephrectomy

INFLUENCE OF THE REORGANIZATION OF ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE TO AIR POLLUTION IN THE BALTIC STATES

Prognosis of environmental quality in Baltic states related with the closure of Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant according to two electricity production scenarios was made. (Scenario 1 - closure date of Block 1 is 2005, closure date of Block 2 is 2011; Scenario 2 - closure date of Block 1 is 2005, exploitation of Block 2 will be extended at least until 2020.) We can see that in accordance with both scenarios CO2 an SO2 emission will increase every year. Although the influence of the largest air pollution sources such as Estonian/Baltic PP, Lithuanian PP Riga CHP and others remains very significant to the situation in Baltic States, new power plants will forward the rise of total emission

Individual, sexual and temporal variation in the winter home range sizes of GPS-tagged Eurasian Curlews Numenius arquata

Capsule: Eurasian Curlews Numenius arquata were faithful to foraging and roosting areas on their coastal wintering grounds, including a habitat creation site. Home range sizes were greater at night than during the day, and showed high inter-individual variability which was not related to sex. Aims: To examine factors affecting variation in the winter home range size of the largest European wader species: the near-threatened Eurasian Curlew Numenius arquata. Methods: We examined individual, sexual and temporal (day/night, seasonal and annual) variation in the size of the home ranges of 18 GPS tagged Curlews captured at two sites on the Humber Estuary, UK. Results: Home ranges were small (mean ± SD = 555.5 ± 557.9 ha) and varied slightly in size through the non-breeding season (September–March). We found some annual differences in home range size, and there was some evidence that home range size was greater at night compared to daytime. There was strong inter-individual variation in home range size, which was not related to the species’ sexual size dimorphism and thus potential differences in resource use. Conclusions: Our results highlight that wintering Curlews on the Humber Estuary maintain small home ranges which vary strongly between individuals. Knowledge of the home range size of wintering waders is vital to inform management responses to the potential impacts of environmental changes such as sea-level rise and improving the efficacy of compensatory habitats

Dietary energy density and adiposity: employing bias adjustments in a meta-analysis of prospective studies.

BACKGROUND: Dietary studies differ in design and quality making it difficult to compare results. This study quantifies the prospective association between dietary energy density (DED) and adiposity in children using a meta-analysis method that adjusts for differences in design and quality through eliciting and incorporating expert opinion on the biases and their uncertainty. METHOD: Six prospective studies identified by a previous systematic literature search were included. Differences in study quality and design were considered respectively as internal and external biases and captured in bias checklists. Study results were converted to correlation coefficients; biases were considered either additive or proportional on this scale. The extent and uncertainty of the internal and external biases in each study were elicited in a formal process by five quantitatively-trained assessors and five subject-matter specialists. Biases for each study were combined across assessors using median pooling and results combined across studies by random-effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: The unadjusted combined correlation between DED and adiposity change was 0.06 (95%CI 0.01, 0.11; p = 0.013), but with considerable heterogeneity (I² = 52%). After bias-adjustment the pooled correlation was 0.17 (95%CI - 0.11, 0.45; p = 0.24), and the studies were apparently compatible (I² = 0%). CONCLUSIONS: This method allowed quantitative synthesis of the prospective association between DED and adiposity change in children, which is important for the development of evidence-informed policy. Bias adjustment increased the magnitude of the positive association but the widening confidence interval reflects the uncertainty of the assessed biases and implies that higher quality studies are required.RIGHTS : This article is licensed under the BioMed Central licence at http://www.biomedcentral.com/about/license which is similar to the 'Creative Commons Attribution Licence'. In brief you may : copy, distribute, and display the work; make derivative works; or make commercial use of the work - under the following conditions: the original author must be given credit; for any reuse or distribution, it must be made clear to others what the license terms of this work are

The fossil insect assemblage associated with the Toarcian (Lower Jurassic) oceanic anoxic event from Alderton Hill, Gloucestershire, UK

Extreme global warming and environmental changes associated with the Toarcian (Lower Jurassic) Oceanic Anoxic Event (T-OAE, ∼183 Mya) profoundly impacted marine organisms and terrestrial plants. Despite the exceptionally elevated abundances of fossil insects from strata of this age, only assemblages from Germany and Luxembourg have been studied in detail. Here, we focus on the insect assemblage found in strata recording the T-OAE at Alderton Hill, Gloucestershire, UK, where <15% of specimens have previously been described. We located all known fossil insects (n = 370) from Alderton Hill, and used these to create the first comprehensive taxonomic and taphonomic analysis of the entire assemblage. We show that a diverse palaeoentomofaunal assemblage is preserved, comprising 12 orders, 21 families, 23 genera and 21 species. Fossil disarticulation is consistent with insect decay studies. The number of orders is comparable with present-day assemblages from similar latitudes (30°-40°N), including the Azores, and suggests that the palaeoentomofauna reflects a life assemblage. At Alderton, Hemiptera, Coleoptera and Orthoptera are the commonest (56.1%) orders. The high abundance of Hemiptera (22.1%) and Orthoptera (13.4%) indicates well-vegetated islands, while floral changes related to the T-OAE may be responsible for hemipteran diversification. Predatory insects are relatively abundant (∼10% of the total assemblage) and we hypothesise that the co-occurrence of fish and insects within the T-OAE represents a jubilee-like event. The marginally higher proportion of sclerotised taxa compared to present-day insect assemblages possibly indicates adaptation to environmental conditions or taphonomic bias. The coeval palaeoentomofauna from Strawberry Bank, Somerset is less diverse (9 orders, 12 families, 6 genera, 3 species) and is taphonomically biased. The Alderton Hill palaeoentomofauna is interpreted to be the bestpreserved and most representative insect assemblage from Toarcian strata in the UK. This study provides an essential first step towards understanding the likely influence of the TOAE on insects