Public attitudes to inflation and monetary policy

Inflation has been volatile in the past three years. This article examines how that has affected households’ attitudes to inflation and to monetary policy more generally. Some of the volatility in inflation has fed through to households’ perceptions of inflation, as measured by the Bank/GfK NOP survey. But inflation expectations have responded less than changes in perceptions: households may have placed weight on the weak economic environment and the inflation target rather than simply extrapolating past trends in prices. Public satisfaction with the Bank, which deteriorated between 2007 and 2009, has improved in recent quarters.

Physiologically Based Simulations of Deuterated Glucose for Quantifying Cell Turnover in Humans.

In vivo [6,6-(2)H2]-glucose labeling is a state-of-the-art technique for quantifying cell proliferation and cell disappearance in humans. However, there are discrepancies between estimates of T cell proliferation reported in short (1-day) versus long (7-day) (2)H2-glucose studies and very-long (9-week) (2)H2O studies. It has been suggested that these discrepancies arise from underestimation of true glucose exposure from intermittent blood sampling in the 1-day study. Label availability in glucose studies is normally approximated by a "square pulse" (Sq pulse). Since the body glucose pool is small and turns over rapidly, the availability of labeled glucose can be subject to large fluctuations and the Sq pulse approximation may be very inaccurate. Here, we model the pharmacokinetics of exogenous labeled glucose using a physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model to assess the impact of a more complete description of label availability as a function of time on estimates of CD4+ and CD8+ T cell proliferation and disappearance. The model enabled us to predict the exposure to labeled glucose during the fasting and de-labeling phases, to capture the fluctuations of labeled glucose availability caused by the intake of food or high-glucose beverages, and to recalculate the proliferation and death rates of immune cells. The PBPK model was used to reanalyze experimental data from three previously published studies using different labeling protocols. Although using the PBPK enrichment profile decreased the 1-day proliferation estimates by about 4 and 7% for CD4 and CD8+ T cells, respectively, differences with the 7-day and 9-week studies remained significant. We conclude that the approximations underlying the "square pulse" approach-recently suggested as the most plausible hypothesis-only explain a component of the discrepancy in published T cell proliferation rate estimates

Accelerated in vivo proliferation of memory phenotype CD4+ T-cells in human HIV-1 infection irrespective of viral chemokine co-receptor tropism.

CD4(+) T-cell loss is the hallmark of HIV-1 infection. CD4 counts fall more rapidly in advanced disease when CCR5-tropic viral strains tend to be replaced by X4-tropic viruses. We hypothesized: (i) that the early dominance of CCR5-tropic viruses results from faster turnover rates of CCR5(+) cells, and (ii) that X4-tropic strains exert greater pathogenicity by preferentially increasing turnover rates within the CXCR4(+) compartment. To test these hypotheses we measured in vivo turnover rates of CD4(+) T-cell subpopulations sorted by chemokine receptor expression, using in vivo deuterium-glucose labeling. Deuterium enrichment was modeled to derive in vivo proliferation (p) and disappearance (d*) rates which were related to viral tropism data. 13 healthy controls and 13 treatment-naive HIV-1-infected subjects (CD4 143-569 cells/ul) participated. CCR5-expression defined a CD4(+) subpopulation of predominantly CD45R0(+) memory cells with accelerated in vivo proliferation (p = 2.50 vs 1.60%/d, CCR5(+) vs CCR5(-); healthy controls; P<0.01). Conversely, CXCR4 expression defined CD4(+) T-cells (predominantly CD45RA(+) naive cells) with low turnover rates. The dominant effect of HIV infection was accelerated turnover of CCR5(+)CD45R0(+)CD4(+) memory T-cells (p = 5.16 vs 2.50%/d, HIV vs controls; P<0.05), naïve cells being relatively unaffected. Similar patterns were observed whether the dominant circulating HIV-1 strain was R5-tropic (n = 9) or X4-tropic (n = 4). Although numbers were small, X4-tropic viruses did not appear to specifically drive turnover of CXCR4-expressing cells (p = 0.54 vs 0.72 vs 0.44%/d in control, R5-tropic, and X4-tropic groups respectively). Our data are most consistent with models in which CD4(+) T-cell loss is primarily driven by non-specific immune activation

Rapid turnover of effector-memory CD4(+) T cells in healthy humans

Memory T cells can be divided into central-memory (T(CM)) and effector-memory (T(EM)) cells, which differ in their functional properties. Although both subpopulations can persist long term, it is not known whether they are maintained by similar mechanisms. We used in vivo labeling with deuterated glucose to measure the turnover of CD4(+) T cells in healthy humans. The CD45R0(+)CCR7(-) T(EM) subpopulation was shown to have a rapid proliferation rate of 4.7% per day compared with 1.5% per day for CD45R0(+)CCR7(+) T(CM) cells; these values are equivalent to average intermitotic (doubling) times of 15 and 48 d, respectively. In contrast, the CD45RA(+)CCR7(+) naive CD4(+) T cell population was found to be much longer lived, being labeled at a rate of only 0.2% per day (corresponding to an intermitotic time of approximately 1 yr). These data indicate that human CD4(+) T(EM) cells constitute a short-lived cell population that requires continuous replenishment in vivo

Assessing the risk to inflation from inflation expectations

Inflation expectations play an important role in the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. There is a risk that the periods of above-target CPI inflation in the past three years might cause inflation expectations to drift upwards. That might make inflation itself more persistent, via changes in price and wage-setting behaviour. And so, other things being equal, returning inflation to target would require tighter monetary policy. This article provides a framework that can be used to monitor the risk to inflation from inflation expectations. While recent developments provide few signs that the risk is materialising, the imperfect nature of data mean that the risk can be assessed only imperfectly.

The Rules of Human T Cell Fate in vivo.

The processes governing lymphocyte fate (division, differentiation, and death), are typically assumed to be independent of cell age. This assumption has been challenged by a series of elegant studies which clearly show that, for murine cells in vitro, lymphocyte fate is age-dependent and that younger cells (i.e., cells which have recently divided) are less likely to divide or die. Here we investigate whether the same rules determine human T cell fate in vivo. We combined data from in vivo stable isotope labeling in healthy humans with stochastic, agent-based mathematical modeling. We show firstly that the choice of model paradigm has a large impact on parameter estimates obtained using stable isotope labeling i.e., different models fitted to the same data can yield very different estimates of T cell lifespan. Secondly, we found no evidence in humans in vivo to support the model in which younger T cells are less likely to divide or die. This age-dependent model never provided the best description of isotope labeling; this was true for naïve and memory, CD4+ and CD8+ T cells. Furthermore, this age-dependent model also failed to predict an independent data set in which the link between division and death was explored using Annexin V and deuterated glucose. In contrast, the age-independent model provided the best description of both naïve and memory T cell dynamics and was also able to predict the independent dataset

Whose Decision Is It, Anyway? An Analysis of Modern-Day Jury Selection Processes

Jury selection is a cornerstone of the pre-trial preparations done before all cases. The voir dire process, where an attorney questions the potential jury pool in order to eliminate those with bias, ensures every citizen is given their right to a fair and impartial jury of their peers. This process is flawed, however. The emerging field of litigation consultation seeks to add social psychology to traditional methods and mitigate these flaws, but it is not perfect either. Using previous research and the 2017 Washington State Mock Trial case, I combine aspects of traditional voir dire and litigation consulting to examine what may be a way to bridge the gap. In the process, I analyze the case and create an example community survey that would conceivably help to do so

Rapid turnover of T cells in acute infectious mononucleosis.

During acute infectious mononucleosis (AIM), large clones of Epstein-Barr virus-specific T lymphocytes are produced. To investigate the dynamics of clonal expansion, we measured cell proliferation during AIM using deuterated glucose to label DNA of dividing cells in vivo, analyzing cells according to CD4, CD8 and CD45 phenotype. The proportion of labeled CD8(+)CD45R0(+) T lymphocytes was dramatically increased in AIM subjects compared to controls (mean 17.5 versus 2.8%/day; p<0.005), indicating very rapid proliferation. Labeling was also increased in CD4(+)CD45R0(+) cells (7.1 versus 2.1%/day; p<0.01), but less so in CD45RA(+) cells. Mathematical modeling, accounting for death of labeled cells and changing pool sizes, gave estimated proliferation rates in CD8(+)CD45R0(+) cells of 11-130% of cells proliferating per day (mean 47%/day), equivalent to a doubling time of 1.5 days and an appearance rate in blood of about 5 x 10(9) cells/day (versus 7 x 10(7) cells/day in controls). Very rapid death rates were also observed amongst labeled cells (range 28-124, mean 57%/day),indicating very short survival times in the circulation. Thus, we have shown direct evidence for massive proliferation of CD8(+)CD45R0(+) T lymphocytes in AIM and demonstrated that rapid cell division continues concurrently with greatly accelerated rates of cell disappearance

Reconciling Estimates of Cell Proliferation from Stable Isotope Labeling Experiments.

Stable isotope labeling is the state of the art technique for in vivo quantification of lymphocyte kinetics in humans. It has been central to a number of seminal studies, particularly in the context of HIV-1 and leukemia. However, there is a significant discrepancy between lymphocyte proliferation rates estimated in different studies. Notably, deuterated (2)H2-glucose (D2-glucose) labeling studies consistently yield higher estimates of proliferation than deuterated water (D2O) labeling studies. This hampers our understanding of immune function and undermines our confidence in this important technique. Whether these differences are caused by fundamental biochemical differences between the two compounds and/or by methodological differences in the studies is unknown. D2-glucose and D2O labeling experiments have never been performed by the same group under the same experimental conditions; consequently a direct comparison of these two techniques has not been possible. We sought to address this problem. We performed both in vitro and murine in vivo labeling experiments using identical protocols with both D2-glucose and D2O. This showed that intrinsic differences between the two compounds do not cause differences in the proliferation rate estimates, but that estimates made using D2-glucose in vivo were susceptible to difficulties in normalization due to highly variable blood glucose enrichment. Analysis of three published human studies made using D2-glucose and D2O confirmed this problem, particularly in the case of short term D2-glucose labeling. Correcting for these inaccuracies in normalization decreased proliferation rate estimates made using D2-glucose and slightly increased estimates made using D2O; thus bringing the estimates from the two methods significantly closer and highlighting the importance of reliable normalization when using this technique