Carbon dioxide and climate impulse response functions for the computation of greenhouse gas metrics: A multi-model analysis

The responses of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other climate variables to an emission pulse of CO2 into the atmosphere are often used to compute the Global Warming Potential (GWP) and Global Temperature change Potential (GTP), to characterize the response timescales of Earth System models, and to build reduced-form models. In this carbon cycle-climate model intercomparison project, which spans the full model hierarchy, we quantify responses to emission pulses of different magnitudes injected under different conditions. The CO2 response shows the known rapid decline in the first few decades followed by a millennium-scale tail. For a 100 Gt-C emission pulse added to a constant CO2 concentration of 389 ppm, 25 ± 9% is still found in the atmosphere after 1000 yr; the ocean has absorbed 59 ± 12% and the land the remainder (16 ± 14%). The response in global mean surface air temperature is an increase by 0.20 ± 0.12 °C within the first twenty years; thereafter and until year 1000, temperature decreases only slightly, whereas ocean heat content and sea level continue to rise. Our best estimate for the Absolute Global Warming Potential, given by the time-integrated response in CO2 at year 100 multiplied by its radiative efficiency, is 92.5 × 10−15 yr W m−2 per kg-CO2. This value very likely (5 to 95% confidence) lies within the range of (68 to 117) × 10−15 yr W m−2 per kg-CO2. Estimates for time-integrated response in CO2 published in the IPCC First, Second, and Fourth Assessment and our multi-model best estimate all agree within 15% during the first 100 yr. The integrated CO2 response, normalized by the pulse size, is lower for pre-industrial conditions, compared to present day, and lower for smaller pulses than larger pulses. In contrast, the response in temperature, sea level and ocean heat content is less sensitive to these choices. Although, choices in pulse size, background concentration, and model lead to uncertainties, the most important and subjective choice to determine AGWP of CO2 and GWP is the time horizon

Mobilising Urban Policies: The Policy Transfer of US Business Improvement Districts to England and Wales

This paper examines the ways in which policies are transferred between places: how they are disembedded from, and re-embedded into, new political, economic and social contexts. To do this, the paper will draw upon a case study of the transfer of Business Improvement Districts (BIDs) from the US to England and Wales. Within this, the paper demonstrates how they were a response to fiscal problems facing city-centre management in England and Wales; how US BIDs were socially constructed as `successful' and `transferable'; and how the BID `model' was reshaped prior to and following its rolling-out in England and Wales. The paper concludes by stressing six wider conceptual points about the nature of urban policy transfer

Evolutionary characterization of lung adenocarcinoma morphology in TRACERx

Lung adenocarcinomas (LUADs) display a broad histological spectrum from low-grade lepidic tumors through to mid-grade acinar and papillary and high-grade solid, cribriform and micropapillary tumors. How morphology reflects tumor evolution and disease progression is poorly understood. Whole-exome sequencing data generated from 805 primary tumor regions and 121 paired metastatic samples across 248 LUADs from the TRACERx 421 cohort, together with RNA-sequencing data from 463 primary tumor regions, were integrated with detailed whole-tumor and regional histopathological analysis. Tumors with predominantly high-grade patterns showed increased chromosomal complexity, with higher burden of loss of heterozygosity and subclonal somatic copy number alterations. Individual regions in predominantly high-grade pattern tumors exhibited higher proliferation and lower clonal diversity, potentially reflecting large recent subclonal expansions. Co-occurrence of truncal loss of chromosomes 3p and 3q was enriched in predominantly low-/mid-grade tumors, while purely undifferentiated solid-pattern tumors had a higher frequency of truncal arm or focal 3q gains and SMARCA4 gene alterations compared with mixed-pattern tumors with a solid component, suggesting distinct evolutionary trajectories. Clonal evolution analysis revealed that tumors tend to evolve toward higher-grade patterns. The presence of micropapillary pattern and ‘tumor spread through air spaces’ were associated with intrathoracic recurrence, in contrast to the presence of solid/cribriform patterns, necrosis and preoperative circulating tumor DNA detection, which were associated with extra-thoracic recurrence. These data provide insights into the relationship between LUAD morphology, the underlying evolutionary genomic landscape, and clinical and anatomical relapse risk

The artificial intelligence-based model ANORAK improves histopathological grading of lung adenocarcinoma

The introduction of the International Association for the Study of Lung Cancer grading system has furthered interest in histopathological grading for risk stratification in lung adenocarcinoma. Complex morphology and high intratumoral heterogeneity present challenges to pathologists, prompting the development of artificial intelligence (AI) methods. Here we developed ANORAK (pyrAmid pooliNg crOss stReam Attention networK), encoding multiresolution inputs with an attention mechanism, to delineate growth patterns from hematoxylin and eosin-stained slides. In 1,372 lung adenocarcinomas across four independent cohorts, AI-based grading was prognostic of disease-free survival, and further assisted pathologists by consistently improving prognostication in stage I tumors. Tumors with discrepant patterns between AI and pathologists had notably higher intratumoral heterogeneity. Furthermore, ANORAK facilitates the morphological and spatial assessment of the acinar pattern, capturing acinus variations with pattern transition. Collectively, our AI method enabled the precision quantification and morphology investigation of growth patterns, reflecting intratumoral histological transitions in lung adenocarcinoma

Genomic–transcriptomic evolution in lung cancer and metastasis

Intratumour heterogeneity (ITH) fuels lung cancer evolution, which leads to immune evasion and resistance to therapy1. Here, using paired whole-exome and RNA sequencing data, we investigate intratumour transcriptomic diversity in 354 non-small cell lung cancer tumours from 347 out of the first 421 patients prospectively recruited into the TRACERx study2,3. Analyses of 947 tumour regions, representing both primary and metastatic disease, alongside 96 tumour-adjacent normal tissue samples implicate the transcriptome as a major source of phenotypic variation. Gene expression levels and ITH relate to patterns of positive and negative selection during tumour evolution. We observe frequent copy number-independent allele-specific expression that is linked to epigenomic dysfunction. Allele-specific expression can also result in genomic–transcriptomic parallel evolution, which converges on cancer gene disruption. We extract signatures of RNA single-base substitutions and link their aetiology to the activity of the RNA-editing enzymes ADAR and APOBEC3A, thereby revealing otherwise undetected ongoing APOBEC activity in tumours. Characterizing the transcriptomes of primary–metastatic tumour pairs, we combine multiple machine-learning approaches that leverage genomic and transcriptomic variables to link metastasis-seeding potential to the evolutionary context of mutations and increased proliferation within primary tumour regions. These results highlight the interplay between the genome and transcriptome in influencing ITH, lung cancer evolution and metastasis

A local human Vδ1 T cell population is associated with survival in nonsmall-cell lung cancer

Murine tissues harbor signature γδ T cell compartments with profound yet differential impacts on carcinogenesis. Conversely, human tissue-resident γδ cells are less well defined. In the present study, we show that human lung tissues harbor a resident Vδ1 γδ T cell population. Moreover, we demonstrate that Vδ1 T cells with resident memory and effector memory phenotypes were enriched in lung tumors compared with nontumor lung tissues. Intratumoral Vδ1 T cells possessed stem-like features and were skewed toward cytolysis and helper T cell type 1 function, akin to intratumoral natural killer and CD8+ T cells considered beneficial to the patient. Indeed, ongoing remission post-surgery was significantly associated with the numbers of CD45RA−CD27− effector memory Vδ1 T cells in tumors and, most strikingly, with the numbers of CD103+ tissue-resident Vδ1 T cells in nonmalignant lung tissues. Our findings offer basic insights into human body surface immunology that collectively support integrating Vδ1 T cell biology into immunotherapeutic strategies for nonsmall cell lung cancer

Lung adenocarcinoma promotion by air pollutants

A complete understanding of how exposure to environmental substances promotes cancer formation is lacking. More than 70 years ago, tumorigenesis was proposed to occur in a two-step process: an initiating step that induces mutations in healthy cells, followed by a promoter step that triggers cancer development1. Here we propose that environmental particulate matter measuring ≤2.5 μm (PM2.5), known to be associated with lung cancer risk, promotes lung cancer by acting on cells that harbour pre-existing oncogenic mutations in healthy lung tissue. Focusing on EGFR-driven lung cancer, which is more common in never-smokers or light smokers, we found a significant association between PM2.5 levels and the incidence of lung cancer for 32,957 EGFR-driven lung cancer cases in four within-country cohorts. Functional mouse models revealed that air pollutants cause an influx of macrophages into the lung and release of interleukin-1β. This process results in a progenitor-like cell state within EGFR mutant lung alveolar type II epithelial cells that fuels tumorigenesis. Ultradeep mutational profiling of histologically normal lung tissue from 295 individuals across 3 clinical cohorts revealed oncogenic EGFR and KRAS driver mutations in 18% and 53% of healthy tissue samples, respectively. These findings collectively support a tumour-promoting role for PM2.5 air pollutants and provide impetus for public health policy initiatives to address air pollution to reduce disease burden

A simple quantitative method for assessing animal welfare outcomes in terrestrial wildlife shooting: the European rabbit as a case study

Shooting is widely used to reduce the abundances of terrestrial wildlife populations, but there is concern about the animal welfare outcomes ('humaneness') of these programmes. Management agencies require methods for assessing the animal welfare outcomes of terrestrial wildlife shooting programmes. We identified four key issues in previous studies assessing the animal welfare outcomes of shooting programmes: (i) biased sampling strategies; (ii) no direct ante mortem observations; (iii) absence of quantifiable parameters for benchmarking; and (iv) no evaluation of explanatory variables that may cause adverse welfare outcomes. We used methods that address these issues to assess the welfare outcomes of a European rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus) shooting programme in south-eastern Australia. An independent observer collected ante mortem (distance, timing and outcome of each shot fired) and post mortem (locations of bullet wounds) data. The ante mortem data were used to estimate three critical animal welfare parameters: apparent time to death (ATTD); instantaneous death rate (IDR); and wounding rate (WR). The post mortem data were used to evaluate the location of bullet wounds relative to the Australian national standard operating procedure (SOP). For rabbits, the mean IDR was 0.60, ATTD was 12 s and WR was 0.12. A large proportion of rabbits (0.75) were shot in the cranium or thorax, as required by the SOP. Logistic regression indicated that the proportion of rabbits wounded and missed increased with shooting distance. Hence, reducing shooting distances would increase the humaneness of European rabbit shooting programmes. Our approach enables the animal welfare outcomes of terrestrial shooting programmes to be independently quantified

Impaired peripheral reaching and on-line corrections in patient DF: optic ataxia in visual form agnosia?

An influential model of vision suggests there are two visual streams within the brain: a dorsal occipito-parietal stream which mediates action and ventral occipito-temporal stream which mediates perception. One of the cornerstones of this model comes from DF, a patient with visual form agnosia after bilateral ventral stream lesions. Despite her inability to recognize visual objects it has been shown that she can execute visually-guided actions towards them with a high-level of skill. These observations have been widely interpreted as demonstrating a double dissociation from optic ataxia, a condition observed after bilateral dorsal stream damage in which patients are unable to act towards objects that they can recognize. One major criticism against this view is that, while the visuomotor deficits in optic ataxia are typically manifest only with peripheral visual guidance, the integrity of action toward peripheral targets has not been closely examined in DF. Here we addressed this question, by asking DF to reach to stationary visual targets and also to perform fast on-line corrections in response to jumping targets, both in free and peripheral vision. Surprisingly, DF was remarkably inaccurate when reaching to peripheral stationary targets, but not when she was allowed to foveate the same targets. Moreover, she was also significantly impaired at correcting her reaches to target jumps, even in free vision. Our data suggest that DF presents visuomotor deficits surprisingly similar to those observed in optic ataxia, when tested under appropriately matched conditions