IPCC reasons for concern regarding climate change risks

The reasons for concern framework communicates scientific understanding about risks in relation to varying levels of climate change. The framework, now a cornerstone of the IPCC assessments, aggregates global risks into five categories as a function of global mean temperature change. We review the framework's conceptual basis and the risk judgments made in the most recent IPCC report, confirming those judgments in most cases in the light of more recent literature and identifying their limitations. We point to extensions of the framework that offer complementary climate change metrics to global mean temperature change and better account for possible changes in social and ecological system vulnerability. Further research should systematically evaluate risks under alternative scenarios of future climatic and societal conditions

Vegetation Leachate During Arctic Thaw Enhances Soil Microbial Phosphorus

Leachate from litter and vegetation penetrates permafrost surface soils during thaw before being exported to aquatic systems. We know this leachate is critical to ecosystem function downstream and hypothesized that thaw leachate inputs would also drive terrestrial microbial activity and nutrient uptake. However, we recognized two potential endpoint scenarios: vegetation leachate is an important source of C for microbes in thawing soil; or vegetation leachate is irrelevant next to the large background C, N, and P pools in thaw soil solution. We assessed these potential outcomes by making vegetation leachate from frozen vegetation and litter in four Arctic ecosystems that have a variety of litter quality and soil C, N, and P contents; one of these ecosystems included a disturbance recovery chronosequence that allowed us to test our second hypothesis that thaw leachate response would be enhanced in disturbed ecosystems. We added water or vegetation leachate to intact, frozen, winter soil cores and incubated the cores through thaw. We measured soil respiration throughout, and soil solution and microbial biomass C, N, and P pools and gross N mineralization immediately after a thaw incubation (−10 to 2°C) lasting 6 days. Vegetation leachate varied strongly by ecosystem in C, N, and P quantity and stoichiometry. Regardless, all vegetated ecosystems responded to leachate additions at thaw with an increase in the microbial biomass phosphate flush and an increase in soil solution carbon and nitrogen, implying a selective microbial uptake of phosphate from plant and litter leachate at thaw. This response to leachate additions was absent in recently disturbed, exposed mineral soil but otherwise did not differ between disturbed and undisturbed ecosystems. The selective uptake of P by microbes implies either thaw microbial P limitation or thaw microbial P uptake opportunism, and that spring thaw is an important time for P retention in several Arctic ecosystems

Climate change and freshwater zooplankton: what does it boil down to?

Recently, major advances in the climate–zooplankton interface have been made some of which appeared to receive much attention in a broader audience of ecologists as well. In contrast to the marine realm, however, we still lack a more holistic summary of recent knowledge in freshwater. We discuss climate change-related variation in physical and biological attributes of lakes and running waters, high-order ecological functions, and subsequent alteration in zooplankton abundance, phenology, distribution, body size, community structure, life history parameters, and behavior by focusing on community level responses. The adequacy of large-scale climatic indices in ecology has received considerable support and provided a framework for the interpretation of community and species level responses in freshwater zooplankton. Modeling perspectives deserve particular consideration, since this promising stream of ecology is of particular applicability in climate change research owing to the inherently predictive nature of this field. In the future, ecologists should expand their research on species beyond daphnids, should address questions as to how different intrinsic and extrinsic drivers interact, should move beyond correlative approaches toward more mechanistic explanations, and last but not least, should facilitate transfer of biological data both across space and time

Chemical weathering and solute export by meltwater in a maritime Antarctic glacier basin

Solute yields, laboratory dissolution data and both chemical and isotopic markers of rock weathering reactions are used to characterise the biogeochemistry of glacial meltwaters draining a maritime Antarctic glacier. We find that delayed flowpaths through ice-marginal talus and moraine sediments are critical for the acquisition of solute from rock minerals because delayed flowpaths through subglacial sediments are absent beneath this small, cold-based glacier. Here the mechanisms of weathering are similar to those reported in subglacial environments, and include sub-oxic conditions in the early summer and increasingly oxic conditions thereafter. Up to 85% of the NO3 − and 65% of the SO4 2− are most likely produced by bacterially mediated reactions in these ice marginal sediments. However, reactive pyrite phases are sparse in the host rocks, limiting the export of Fe, SO4 2− and cations that may be removed by weathering once pyrite oxidation has taken place. This means that dissolution of Ca2+ and Na+ from carbonate and silicate minerals dominate, producing moderate cationic denudation yields from Tuva Glacier (163 Σ*meq+ m−2 a−1) compared to a global range of values (94–4,200 Σ*meq+ km−2 a−1). Overall, crustally derived cations represent 42% of the total cationic flux, the rest being accounted for by snowpack sources

The polar regions in a 2°C warmer world

Over the past decade, the Arctic has warmed by 0.75°C, far outpacing the global average, while Antarctic temperatures have remained comparatively stable. As Earth approaches 2°C warming, the Arctic and Antarctic may reach 4°C and 2°C mean annual warming, and 7°C and 3°C winter warming, respectively. Expected consequences of increased Arctic warming include ongoing loss of land and sea ice, threats to wildlife and traditional human livelihoods, increased methane emissions, and extreme weather at lower latitudes. With low biodiversity, Antarctic ecosystems may be vulnerable to state shifts and species invasions. Land ice loss in both regions will contribute substantially to global sea level rise, with up to 3 m rise possible if certain thresholds are crossed. Mitigation efforts can slow or reduce warming, but without them northern high latitude warming may accelerate in the next two to four decades. International cooperation will be crucial to foreseeing and adapting to expected changes

The polar regions in a 2°C warmer world

Over the past decade, the Arctic has warmed by 0.75°C, far outpacing the global average, while Antarctic temperatures have remained comparatively stable. As Earth approaches 2°C warming, the Arctic and Antarctic may reach 4°C and 2°C mean annual warming, and 7°C and 3°C winter warming, respectively. Expected consequences of increased Arctic warming include ongoing loss of land and sea ice, threats to wildlife and traditional human livelihoods, increased methane emissions, and extreme weather at lower latitudes. With low biodiversity, Antarctic ecosystems may be vulnerable to state shifts and species invasions. Land ice loss in both regions will contribute substantially to global sea level rise, with up to 3 m rise possible if certain thresholds are crossed. Mitigation efforts can slow or reduce warming, but without them northern high latitude warming may accelerate in the next two to four decades. International cooperation will be crucial to foreseeing and adapting to expected changes