Can We “Hedge” against the Development of Antiviral Resistance among Pandemic Influenza Viruses?

David K. Shay and Benjamin Ridenhour discuss a modeling study predicting that stockpiling a secondary antiviral for use early in a flu pandemic can forestall resistance to the primary stockpiled drug

Oseltamivir–Resistant Pandemic H1N1/2009 Influenza Virus Possesses Lower Transmissibility and Fitness in Ferrets

The neuraminidase (NA) inhibitor oseltamivir offers an important immediate option for the control of influenza, and its clinical use has increased substantially during the recent H1N1 pandemic. In view of the high prevalence of oseltamivir-resistant seasonal H1N1 influenza viruses in 2007–2008, there is an urgent need to characterize the transmissibility and fitness of oseltamivir-resistant H1N1/2009 viruses, although resistant variants have been isolated at a low rate. Here we studied the transmissibility of a closely matched pair of pandemic H1N1/2009 clinical isolates, one oseltamivir-sensitive and one resistant, in the ferret model. The resistant H275Y mutant was derived from a patient on oseltamivir prophylaxis and was the first oseltamivir-resistant isolate of the pandemic virus. Full genome sequencing revealed that the pair of viruses differed only at NA amino acid position 275. We found that the oseltamivir-resistant H1N1/2009 virus was not transmitted efficiently in ferrets via respiratory droplets (0/2), while it retained efficient transmission via direct contact (2/2). The sensitive H1N1/2009 virus was efficiently transmitted via both routes (2/2 and 1/2, respectively). The wild-type H1N1/2009 and the resistant mutant appeared to cause a similar disease course in ferrets without apparent attenuation of clinical signs. We compared viral fitness within the host by co-infecting a ferret with oseltamivir-sensitive and -resistant H1N1/2009 viruses and found that the resistant virus showed less growth capability (fitness). The NA of the resistant virus showed reduced substrate-binding affinity and catalytic activity in vitro and delayed initial growth in MDCK and MDCK-SIAT1 cells. These findings may in part explain its less efficient transmission. The fact that the oseltamivir-resistant H1N1/2009 virus retained efficient transmission through direct contact underlines the necessity of continuous monitoring of drug resistance and characterization of possible evolving viral proteins during the pandemic

Sublingual Immunization with a Live Attenuated Influenza A Virus Lacking the Nonstructural Protein 1 Induces Broad Protective Immunity in Mice

The nonstructural protein 1 (NS1) of influenza A virus (IAV) enables the virus to disarm the host cell type 1 IFN defense system. Mutation or deletion of the NS1 gene leads to attenuation of the virus and enhances host antiviral response making such live-attenuated influenza viruses attractive vaccine candidates. Sublingual (SL) immunization with live influenza virus has been found to be safe and effective for inducing protective immune responses in mucosal and systemic compartments. Here we demonstrate that SL immunization with NS1 deleted IAV (DeltaNS1 H1N1 or DeltaNS1 H5N1) induced protection against challenge with homologous as well as heterosubtypic influenza viruses. Protection was comparable with that induced by intranasal (IN) immunization and was associated with high levels of virus-specific antibodies (Abs). SL immunization with DeltaNS1 virus induced broad Ab responses in mucosal and systemic compartments and stimulated immune cells in mucosa-associated and systemic lymphoid organs. Thus, SL immunization with DeltaNS1 offers a novel potential vaccination strategy for the control of influenza outbreaks including pandemics

A Mathematical Framework for Estimating Pathogen Transmission Fitness and Inoculum Size Using Data from a Competitive Mixtures Animal Model

We present a method to measure the relative transmissibility (“transmission fitness”) of one strain of a pathogen compared to another. The model is applied to data from “competitive mixtures” experiments in which animals are co-infected with a mixture of two strains. We observe the mixture in each animal over time and over multiple generations of transmission. We use data from influenza experiments in ferrets to demonstrate the approach. Assessment of the relative transmissibility between two strains of influenza is important in at least three contexts: 1) Within the human population antigenically novel strains of influenza arise and compete for susceptible hosts. 2) During a pandemic event, a novel sub-type of influenza competes with the existing seasonal strain(s). The unfolding epidemiological dynamics are dependent upon both the population's susceptibility profile and the inherent transmissibility of the novel strain compared to the existing strain(s). 3) Neuraminidase inhibitors (NAIs), while providing significant potential to reduce transmission of influenza, exert selective pressure on the virus and so promote the emergence of drug-resistant strains. Any adverse outcome due to selection and subsequent spread of an NAI-resistant strain is exquisitely dependent upon the transmission fitness of that strain. Measurement of the transmission fitness of two competing strains of influenza is thus of critical importance in determining the likely time-course and epidemiology of an influenza outbreak, or the potential impact of an intervention measure such as NAI distribution. The mathematical framework introduced here also provides an estimate for the size of the transmitted inoculum. We demonstrate the framework's behaviour using data from ferret transmission studies, and through simulation suggest how to optimise experimental design for assessment of transmissibility. The method introduced here for assessment of mixed transmission events has applicability beyond influenza, to other viral and bacterial pathogens

Ferrets develop fatal influenza after inhaling small particle aerosols of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus A/Vietnam/1203/2004 (H5N1)

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>There is limited knowledge about the potential routes for H5N1 influenza virus transmission to and between humans, and it is not clear whether humans can be infected through inhalation of aerosolized H5N1 virus particles. Ferrets are often used as a animal model for humans in influenza pathogenicity and transmissibility studies. In this manuscript, a nose-only bioaerosol inhalation exposure system that was recently developed and validated was used in an inhalation exposure study of aerosolized A/Vietnam/1203/2004 (H5N1) virus in ferrets. The clinical spectrum of influenza resulting from exposure to A/Vietnam/1203/2004 (H5N1) through intranasal verses inhalation routes was analyzed.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Ferrets were successfully infected through intranasal instillation or through inhalation of small particle aerosols with four different doses of <it>Influenza virus </it>A/Vietnam/1203/2004 (H5N1). The animals developed severe influenza encephalomyelitis following intranasal or inhalation exposure to 10¹, 10², 10³, or 10⁴infectious virus particles per ferret.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Aerosolized <it>Influenza virus </it>A/Vietnam/1203/2004 (H5N1) is highly infectious and lethal in ferrets. Clinical signs appeared earlier in animals infected through inhalation of aerosolized virus compared to those infected through intranasal instillation.</p

Antiviral resistance during pandemic influenza: implications for stockpiling and drug use

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The anticipated extent of antiviral use during an influenza pandemic can have adverse consequences for the development of drug resistance and rationing of limited stockpiles. The strategic use of drugs is therefore a major public health concern in planning for effective pandemic responses.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We employed a mathematical model that includes both sensitive and resistant strains of a virus with pandemic potential, and applies antiviral drugs for treatment of clinical infections. Using estimated parameters in the published literature, the model was simulated for various sizes of stockpiles to evaluate the outcome of different antiviral strategies.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We demonstrated that the emergence of highly transmissible resistant strains has no significant impact on the use of available stockpiles if treatment is maintained at low levels or the reproduction number of the sensitive strain is sufficiently high. However, moderate to high treatment levels can result in a more rapid depletion of stockpiles, leading to run-out, by promoting wide-spread drug resistance. We applied an antiviral strategy that delays the onset of aggressive treatment for a certain amount of time after the onset of the outbreak. Our results show that if high treatment levels are enforced too early during the outbreak, a second wave of infections can potentially occur with a substantially larger magnitude. However, a timely implementation of wide-scale treatment can prevent resistance spread in the population, and minimize the final size of the pandemic.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Our results reveal that conservative treatment levels during the early stages of the outbreak, followed by a timely increase in the scale of drug-use, will offer an effective strategy to manage drug resistance in the population and avoid run-out. For a 1918-like strain, the findings suggest that pandemic plans should consider stockpiling antiviral drugs to cover at least 20% of the population.</p

Evolution of H3N2 Influenza Virus in a Guinea Pig Model

Studies of influenza virus evolution under controlled experimental conditions can provide a better understanding of the consequences of evolutionary processes with and without immunological pressure. Characterization of evolved strains assists in the development of predictive algorithms for both the selection of subtypes represented in the seasonal influenza vaccine and the design of novel immune refocused vaccines. To obtain data on the evolution of influenza in a controlled setting, naïve and immunized Guinea pigs were infected with influenza A/Wyoming/2003 (H3N2). Virus progeny from nasal wash samples were assessed for variation in the dominant and other epitopes by sequencing the hemagglutinin (HA) gene to quantify evolutionary changes. Viral RNA from the nasal washes from infection of naïve and immune animals contained 6% and 24.5% HA variant sequences, respectively. Analysis of mutations relative to antigenic epitopes indicated that adaptive immunity played a key role in virus evolution. HA mutations in immunized animals were associated with loss of glycosylation and changes in charge and hydrophobicity in and near residues within known epitopes. Four regions of HA-1 (75–85, 125–135, 165–170, 225–230) contained residues of highest variability. These sites are adjacent to or within known epitopes and appear to play an important role in antigenic variation. Recognition of the role of these sites during evolution will lead to a better understanding of the nature of evolution which help in the prediction of future strains for selection of seasonal vaccines and the design of novel vaccines intended to stimulated broadened cross-reactive protection to conserved sites outside of dominant epitopes

Impact of Emerging Antiviral Drug Resistance on Influenza Containment and Spread: Influence of Subclinical Infection and Strategic Use of a Stockpile Containing One or Two Drugs

BACKGROUND: Wide-scale use of antiviral agents in the event of an influenza pandemic is likely to promote the emergence of drug resistance, with potentially deleterious effects for outbreak control. We explored factors promoting resistance within a dynamic infection model, and considered ways in which one or two drugs might be distributed to delay the spread of resistant strains or mitigate their impact. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We have previously developed a novel deterministic model of influenza transmission that simulates treatment and targeted contact prophylaxis, using a limited stockpile of antiviral agents. This model was extended to incorporate subclinical infections, and the emergence of resistant virus strains under the selective pressure imposed by various uses of one or two antiviral agents. For a fixed clinical attack rate, R(0) rises with the proportion of subclinical infections thus reducing the number of infections amenable to treatment or prophylaxis. In consequence, outbreak control is more difficult, but emergence of drug resistance is relatively uncommon. Where an epidemic may be constrained by use of a single antiviral agent, strategies that combine treatment and prophylaxis are most effective at controlling transmission, at the cost of facilitating the spread of resistant viruses. If two drugs are available, using one drug for treatment and the other for prophylaxis is more effective at preventing propagation of mutant strains than either random allocation or drug cycling strategies. Our model is relatively straightforward, and of necessity makes a number of simplifying assumptions. Our results are, however, consistent with the wider body of work in this area and are able to place related research in context while extending the analysis of resistance emergence and optimal drug use within the constraints of a finite drug stockpile. CONCLUSIONS: Combined treatment and prophylaxis represents optimal use of antiviral agents to control transmission, at the cost of drug resistance. Where two drugs are available, allocating different drugs to cases and contacts is likely to be most effective at constraining resistance emergence in a pandemic scenario

Oseltamivir-Resistant Pandemic A/H1N1 Virus Is as Virulent as Its Wild-Type Counterpart in Mice and Ferrets

The neuraminidase inhibitor oseltamivir is currently used for treatment of patients infected with the pandemic A/H1N1 (pH1N1) influenza virus, although drug-resistant mutants can emerge rapidly and possibly be transmitted. We describe the characteristics of a pair of oseltamivir-resistant and oseltamivir-susceptible pH1N1 clinical isolates that differed by a single change (H274Y) in the neuraminidase protein. Viral fitness of pH1N1 isolates was assessed in vitro by determining replication kinetics in MDCK α2,6 cells and in vivo by performing experimental infections of BALB/c mice and ferrets. Despite slightly reduced propagation of the mutant isolate in vitro during the first 24 h, the wild-type (WT) and mutant resistant viruses induced similar maximum weight loss in mice and ferrets with an identical pyrexic response in ferrets (AUC of 233.9 and 233.2, P = 0.5156). Similarly, comparable titers were obtained for the WT and the mutant strains on days 1, 3, 6 and 9 post-infection in mouse lungs and on days 1–7 in ferret nasal washes. A more important perivascular (day 6) and pleural (days 6 and 12) inflammation was noted in the lungs of mice infected with the H274Y mutant, which correlated with increased pulmonary levels of IL-6 and KC. Such increased levels of IL-6 were also observed in lymph nodes of ferrets infected with the mutant strain. Furthermore, the H274Y mutant strain was transmitted to ferrets. In conclusion, viral fitness of the H274Y pH1N1 isolate is not substantially altered and has the potential to induce severe disease and to disseminate