Multiple equilibria and the credibility of the Brazilian crawling peg 1995-1998.

Credibility; Equilibrium;

Macro factors and the Term Structure of Interest Rates

This paper presents an essentially affine model of the term structure of interest rates making use of macroeconomic factors and their long-run expectations. The model extends the approach pioneered by Kozicki and Tinsley (2001) by modeling consistently long-run inflation expectations simultaneously with the term structure. This model thus avoids the standard pre-filtering of long-run expectations, as proposed by Kozicki and Tinsley (2001). Application to the U.S. economy shows the importance of long-run inflation expectations in the modelling of long-term bonds. The paper also provides a macroeconomic interpretation for the factors found in a latent factor model of the term structure. More specifically, we find that the standard "level" factor is highly correlated to long-run inflation expectations, the "slope" factor captures temporary business cycle conditions, while the "curvature" factor represents a clear independent monetary policy factor.Essentially affine term structure model;long-run market expectations;macroeconomic factors;monetary policy rule

Estimation of a joint model for the term structure of interest rates and the macroeconomy.

In this paper, we present a stylized continuous time model integrating the macroeconomy and the bond markets. We use this framework to estimate (real) interest rate policy rules using information contained in both macroeconomic variables (i.e. output and inflation) and in the term structure of interest rates. We extend the standard Kalman filter procedure in order to estimate this model efficiently. Application to the U.S. economy shows that this model is able to estimate the macroeconomic dynamics accurately and that the standard feedback rule only in observable factors is not valid within this framework. Moreover, we find that observable macroeconomic variables do not explain much of the term structure. However, (filtered) stochastic central tendencies of these macroeconomic variables do. Finally, both observable and non-observable factors determine the risk premia and hence the excess holding returns of the bonds.Interest rates; Model; Structure; Term structure of interest rates;

The economic value of technical trading rules: A nonparametric utility-based approach.

We adapt Brandt's (1999) nonparametric approach to determine the optimal portfolio choice of a risk averse foreign exchange investor who uses moving average trading signals as the information instrument for investment opportunities. Additionally, we assess the economic value of the estimated optimal trading rules based on the investor's preferences. The approach consists of a conditional generalized method of moments (GMM) applied to the conditional Euler optimality conditions. The method presents two main advantages: (i) it avoids ad hoc specifications of statistical models used to explain return predictability; and (ii) it implicitly incorporates all return moments in the investor's expected utility maximization problem. We apply the procedure to different moving average trading rules for the German mark-U.S. dollar exchange rate for the period 1973-2001. We find that technical trading rules are partially recovered and that the estimated optimal trading rules represent a significant economic value for the investor.Rules; Trading rule; nonparametric methods;

The Cost of Technical Trading Rules in the Forex Market: A Utility-based Evaluation

We compute the opportunity cost for rational risk averse agents of using technical trading rules in the foreign exchange rate market. Our purpose is to investigate whether these rules can be interpreted as near-rational investment strategies for rational investors. We analyze four di.erent exchange rates and find that the opportunity cost of using chartist rules tends to be prohibitively high. We also present a method to decompose this opportunity cost into parts related to investor's irrationality and misallocation of wealth. The results show that irrationality of chartist beliefs is an important component of the total opportunity cost of using technical trading rules

Fotografias (re)veladas em Álbum de Família: a tragédia rodriguiana multicetada

À luz de estudiosos da dramaturgia de Nelson Rodrigues, como Sábato Magaldi,Eudinyr Fraga, Décio de Almeida Prado, Adriana Facina, de críticos e ensaístas acerca da tragédia moderna, como Raymond Williams e Peter Szondi, e de críticos da tragédia rodriguiana, a citar, Carla Souto, Elen de Medeiros, Victor Adler Pereira dentre outros estudiosos do dramaturgo pernambucano, a proposta apresentada visa a situar a peça Álbum de Família (1945) no cenário da dramaturgia brasileira, observando o posicionamento da crítica diante do terceiro e mais polêmico texto teatral de Nelson Rodrigues, bem e as múltiplas faces que essa tragédia assume dadas a complexidade das personagense do texto dramático em questão. Serão utilizados para a análise textual, aparatos críticos e teóricos das noções de tragicidade e de contextualização da obra no cenário nacional, apontando-se, assim, as apropriações que o dramaturgo brasileiro fez do gênero em questão, especialmente no que concerne às inovações que ele propôs para que as noções de trágico e de tragédia ganhassemcontornos mais singulares na obra estudada. A angústia de existir em Álbum de Família(1945) é a prova cabal da dicotomia existente entre o eu e o outro: herói e anti-herói, posto que e as fotografias do álbum do casal protagonista Jonas e D. Senhorinha reforçam a influência do outro nas frustrações e nas impossibilidades de realização plena dos ideais de cada um dos componentes de toda uma estrutura familiar deformada, desagradável e atormentada pela unidade trágica do texto que a performatiza

Soroprevalência de brucelose em suínos de granjas comerciais e em criatórios de subsistência.

Resumo: A suinocultura industrial compreende o conjunto de produtores que incorporam os avanços tecnológicos em genética, nutrição, sanidade e demais aspectos produtivos, enquanto a suinocultura de subsistência desempenha um papel importante para a alimentação humana, sendo a criação de suínos em criatórios amplamente difundida entre os pequenos proprietários de terra ou em assentamentos. Este trabalho teve como objetivo avaliar a pesquisa de anticorpos contra Brucella sp. nos suínos de granjas comerciais, criatórios de subsistência e javalis asselvajados. Foram visitados 32 criatórios de suínos domésticos localizados na região sul de Mato Grosso do Sul. Considerando-se os fenótipos, verificou-se que os sinais indicativos de contato têm influência do município onde está situada a propriedade (?2=8.8594, p=0,0029), sendo que o município de Deodápolis tem uma chance de ocorrência mais elevada (OR=13,00;IC95%:2,12-79,59). Através da detecção fenotípica observa-se a presença de animais híbridos nas propriedades analisadas, e evidencia-se assim que os animais da propriedade em algum momento entraram em contato com suínos asselvajados, os quais podem ser responsáveis pela disseminação de diversas patologias. A ausência da detecção de anticorpos anti-Brucella sp. em suínos de criatórios sugere que a bactéria não é circulante nas populações de javalis nas áreas de estudo. Abstract: Industrial pig farming comprises the group of producers that incorporate technological advances in genetics, nutrition, health and other productive aspects, while subsistence pig farming plays an important role for human nutrition, with the creation of pigs in farms being widely spread among small farms. landowners or settlements. This study aimed to evaluate the search for antibodies against Brucella sp. pigs on commercial farms, livestock farms and wild boars. Were visited 32 domestic swine farms located in the southern region of Mato Grosso do Sul. Considering the phenotypes, it was found that the indicative signs of contact have influence from the municipality where the property is located (χ2=8.8594, p=0.0029) , and the municipality of Deodápolis has a higher chance of occurrence (OR=13,00;IC95%:2,12-79,59). Through the phenotypic detection, the presence of hybrid animals in the analyzed properties is clearly observed, and it is evident that the animals of the property at some point came into contact with pigs, which may be responsible for the spread of several pathogens. The absence of detection of anti-Brucella sp. in breeding pigs it suggests that the bacteria is not circulating in wild boar populations in the study areas