Against Game Theory

People make choices. Often, the outcome depends on choices other people make. What mental steps do people go through when making such choices? Game theory, the most influential model of choice in economics and the social sciences, offers an answer, one based on games of strategy such as chess and checkers: the chooser considers the choices that others will make and makes a choice that will lead to a better outcome for the chooser, given all those choices by other people. It is universally established in the social sciences that classical game theory (even when heavily modified) is bad at predicting behavior. But instead of abandoning classical game theory, those in the social sciences have mounted a rescue operation under the name of “behavioral game theory.” Its main tool is to propose systematic deviations from the predictions of game theory, deviations that arise from character type, for example. Other deviations purportedly come from cognitive overload or limitations. The fundamental idea of behavioral game theory is that, if we know the deviations, then we can correct our predictions accordingly, and so get it right. There are two problems with this rescue operation, each of them is fatal. (1) For a chooser, contemplating the range of possible deviations, as there are many dozens, actually makes it exponentially harder to figure out a path to an outcome. This makes the theoretical models useless for modeling human thought or human behavior in general. (2) Modeling deviations are helpful only if the deviations are consistent, so that scientists (and indeed decision makers) can make predictions about future choices on the basis of past choices. But the deviations are not consistent. In general, deviations from classical models are not consistent for any individual from one task to the next or between individuals for the same task. In addition, people’s beliefs are in general not consistent with their choices. Accordingly, all hope is hollow that we can construct a general behavioral game theory. What can replace it? We survey some of the emerging candidates

Can We Build Behavioral Game Theory?

The way economists and other social scientists model how people make interdependent decisions is through the theory of games. Psychologists and behavioral economists, however, have established many deviations from the predictions of game theory. In response to these findings, a broad movement has arisen to salvage the core of game theory. Extant models of interdependent decision-making try to improve their explanatory domain by adding some corrective terms or limits. We will make the argument that this approach is misguided. For this approach to work, the deviations would have to be consistent. Drawing in part on our experimental results, we will argue that deviations from classical models are not consistent for any individual from one task to the next or between individuals for the same task. In turn, the problem of finding an equilibrium strategy is not easier but rather is exponentially more difficult. It does not seem that game theory can be repaired by adding corrective terms (such as consideration of personal characteristics, social norms, heuristic or bias terms, or cognitive limits on choice and learning). In what follows, we describe new methods for investigating interdependent decision-making. Our experimental results show that people do not choose consistently, do not hold consistent beliefs, and do not in general align actions and beliefs. We will show that experimental choices are inconsistent in ways that prevent us from drawing general characterizations of an individual’s choices or beliefs or of the general population\u27s choices and beliefs. A general behavioral game theory seems a distant and, at present, unfulfilled hope

Graduate Sessions 8: Neil Denari

Neil Denari is the founder and principal of Neil M. Denari Architects, Inc. He was the director of SCI-Arc from 1997 to 2001 and is currently a professor in the Architecture and Urban Design Department at UCLA. His lecture at Syracuse Architecture, entitled The New Intimacy, is one of over two hundred he has given at institutions throughout France, Japan, and the United States

Graduate Sessions 9: Keller Easterling

Keller Easterling is an architect, professor, urbanist, and writer whose books Enduring Innocence: Global Architecture and Its Political Masquerades and Organization Space: Landscapes, Highways and Houses in America offer original and provocative conflations of spatial theory and contemporary design

Graduate Sessions 7: Anthony Vidler

Anthony Vidler is Dean of the Irwin S. Chanin School of Architecture of The Cooper Union. His books include Histories of the Immediate Present, The Architectural Uncanny, Warped Space, and The Writing of the Walls

Evaluation of the ALMA Prototype Antennas

The ALMA North American and European prototype antennas have been evaluated by a variety of measurement systems to quantify the major performance specifications. Nearfield holography was used to set the reflector surfaces to 17 microns RMS. Pointing and fast switching performance was determined with an optical telescope and by millimeter wavelength radiometry, yielding 2 arcsec absolute and 0.6 arcsec offset pointing accuracies. Path length stability was measured to be less than or approximately equal to 20 microns over 10 minute time periods using optical measurement devices. Dynamical performance was studied with a set of accelerometers, providing data on wind induced tracking errors and structural deformation. Considering all measurements made during this evaluation, both prototype antennas meet the major ALMA antenna performance specifications.Comment: 83 pages, 36 figures, AASTex format, to appear in PASP September 2006 issu

Issues in teaching to the writing test : preparing students for the TOEFL(R); iBT independent writing task

Students in the Department of International Studies at Doshisha Women’s College are required to study overseas for one year at a college or university in an English-speaking country. For this reason, their first year is devoted to test preparation. Teaching such test preparation courses forces the instructors to face several issues related to "teaching to the test" such as effectiveness and the relationship to usual language teaching. These issues have been discussed in the literature to some extent but only a few studies address them in a specific context. This paper examines a course designed to prepare students for the independent writing task of the TOEFL iBT; it presents a detailed description of how the course is taught based on the reflections of four instructors, focusing on three issues related to teaching to the test: teaching writing as opposed to teaching to the prompt; the effect of the test rubric and the holistic scoring policy on teaching; and the use of textbooks. We conclude that teaching to the test is compatible with sound instructional practice.論文 (Article

Exploring the relationship between population mobility and HIV risk: evidence from Tanzania

Migration and population mobility has long been regarded as an important structural driver of HIV. Following initial concerns regarding the spatial spread of the disease, mobile populations are viewed to engage in higher levels of risky sexual behaviours than non-mobile groups. However, beyond the case studies of mineworkers and truck drivers, the statistical evidence is inconclusive, suggesting that the relationship between mobility and risk is not well understood. This study investigated how engaging in specific livelihoods that involve mobility influences sexual behaviour and HIV risk. A qualitative research project, including focus groups and in-depth interviews with key mobile groups, was conducted in Northern Tanzania. The findings show that the patterns and conditions of moving related to the requirements of each different economic activity influence the nature of relationships that mobile groups have whilst away, how and where local sexual networks are accessed, and the practicalities of having sex. This has further implications for condom use. Risk behaviours are also shaped by local sexual norms related to transactional sex, emphasising that the roles of mobility and gender are interrelated, overlapping, and difficult to disentangle