Using participatory modeling processes to identify sources of climate risk in West Africa

Participatory modeling has been widely recognized in recent years as a powerful tool for dealing with risk and uncertainty. By incorporating multiple perspectives into the structure of a model, we hypothesize that sources of risk can be identified and analyzed more comprehensively compared to traditional ‘expert-driven’ models. However, one of the weaknesses of a participatory modeling process is that it is typically not feasible to involve more than a few dozen people in model creation, and valuable perspectives on sources of risk may therefore be absent. We sought to address this weakness by conducting parallel participatory modeling processes in three countries in West Africa with similar climates and smallholder agricultural systems, but widely differing political and cultural contexts. Stakeholders involved in the agricultural sector in Ghana, Mali, and Nigeria participated in either a scenario planning process or a causal loop diagramming process, in which they were asked about drivers of agricultural productivity and food security, and sources of risk, including climate risk, between the present and mid-century (2035–2050). Participants in all three workshops identified both direct and indirect sources of climate risk, as they interact with other critical drivers of agricultural systems change, such as water availability, political investment in agriculture, and land availability. We conclude that participatory systems methods are a valuable addition to the suite of methodologies for analyzing climate risk and that scientists and policy-makers would do well to consider dynamic interactions between drivers of risk when assessing the resilience of agricultural systems to climate change

A scoping review of market links between value chain actors and small-scale producers in developing regions

Sustainable Development Goal 2 aims to end hunger, achieve food and nutrition security and promote sustainable agriculture by 2030. This requires that small-scale producers be included in, and benefit from, the rapid growth and transformation under way in food systems. Small-scale producers interact with various actors when they link with markets, including product traders, logistics firms, processors and retailers. The literature has explored primarily how large firms interact with farmers through formal contracts and resource provision arrangements. Although important, contracts constitute a very small share of smallholder market interactions. There has been little exploration of whether non-contract interactions between small farmers and both small- and large-scale value chain actors have affected small farmers’ livelihoods. This scoping review covers 202 studies on that topic. We find that non-contract interactions, de facto mostly with small and medium enterprises, benefit small-scale producers via similar mechanisms that the literature has previously credited to large firms. Small and medium enterprises, not just large enterprises, address idiosyncratic market failures and asset shortfalls of small-scale producers by providing them, through informal arrangements, with complementary services such as input provision, credit, information and logistics. Providing these services directly supports Sustainable Development Goal 2 by improving farmer welfare through technology adoption and greater productivity

Medium-Scale Farming as a Policy Tool for Agricultural Commercialisation and Small-Scale Farms Transformation in Nigeria

Recent evidence suggests that the changing structure of land ownership in sub-Saharan Africa is one of the major new trends affecting African agri-food systems. Research in several African countries shows a rapid rise of medium-scale farms (MSFs) of 5–50ha. MSFs have become an important force for increasing agricultural production, particularly in countries with significant unutilised arable land and potential for area expansion, such as Ghana, Nigeria, Tanzania and Zambia. Most African countries’ national agricultural investment plans and policy strategies officially regard the smallholder farming sector as the main vehicle for achieving agricultural growth, food security, and poverty reduction objectives. However, many governments have adopted land and financial policies that implicitly encourage the rise of emergent MSFs. Given the documented rise in MSFs in many African countries, the APRA Nigeria Work Stream 1 team developed a research agenda focused on understanding the potentially complex ways in which these farms affect the productivity and commercialisation potential of small-scale farms (SSFs). We investigated the characteristics of MSFs, the processes that produces them, their relative importance in the agricultural commercialisation process, the relationship between farm scale and productivity, and whether MSFs influence the behaviour and welfare of the millions of SSF households around them. Our findings are based on two years of survey data on MSFs and nearby SSFs in 2019 and 2021 in Ogun and Kaduna states. This policy brief summarises our main findings, drawing upon several APRA-supported reports

Efficiency, food security and differentiation in small-scale irrigation agriculture: Evidence from North West Nigeria

Ambiguity over the effectiveness of agricultural intervention is more pronounced in rural areas where the majority of North West Nigeria’s poor population, and those involved in agriculture, reside. Further characterising these areas is the paucity of research on the issue of differentiation within the smallholder community. Specifically, definite classification of households based on efficiency, food security and income status remains inadequate. The study explores smallholder households’ differentials on the basis of these three phenomena, and other factors that affect smallholder typologies. Data was collected from 306 randomly selected smallholders involved in the Middle Rima Valley Irrigation Project, Sokoto State, Nigeria. Smallholders’ technical efficiency and households’ Food Consumption Score (FCS) were assessed. Also, Pearson correlation analysis, a segmentation approach using cluster analysis and multinomial regression model were used for the study. The study showed that the mean efficiency level of smallholder farms was 85.9% and that the majority of the households were food insecure

Drivers of diversification and pluriactivity among smallholder farmers—evidence from Nigeria

Diversification and pluriactivity have become a norm among farm business owners (FBOs) due to persistent low farm income. This study applies the resource-based theory to examine drivers of diversification and livelihood income-oriented towards a sustainable livelihood. Our framework develops hypotheses about the impact of internal and external resources on livelihood choices at the household level. We use a survey of 480 rural Nigerian farmers (agripreneurs), applying a Multivariate Tobit to test our framework. We find that education plays the most significant role in all types of employment options. The more FBOs are educated, the more the likelihood that they will choose non-farm or wage employment. This study revealed that while the agriculture sector’s share of rural employment is declining, non-farm is on the increase. More so, there is a decline in farming among the young generation, marital status bias and gender influence in resource allocation. The socioeconomic (income and food security) and socio-cultural (employment and rural-urban migration) implications of rural sustainability linked to UN Development Goals have been highlighted and analysed in this article

Is Fertilizer use Inconsistent with Expected Profitability for Rice Production in Nigeria?

This brief presents empirical results that revisit a conventional wisdom that inorganic fertilizer use across sub-Saharan Africa is too low. This expectation that more farmers should be using inorganic fertilizer and at higher rates implies it is profitable to use rates higher than observed if farmers are rational expected profit maximizers. This study exploits the political economy of fertilizer access in Nigeria to get consistent estimates of the effects of applied nitrogen on rice production

Sustaining Input on Credit Through Dynamic Incentives and Information Sharing:

A Dynamic incentive model is used to develop conditions that minimize strategic default in agricultural inputs on credit to rural smallholder farmers. Hypotheses from the model are tested using data collected through a framed field experiment that simulates a market for input on credi

Agrifood System Transformation in the Midstream and Downstream: Research Findings, Implied Risks, and Implications for Policy and Value Chain Program Design

Research by Michigan State University and the International Food Policy Research Institute under the Food Security Policy Innovation lab has documented profound changes taking place in African agrifood systems, driven by rapid urbanization, growth in per capita incomes, and the increasing reach of globalized markets over the past fifteen- to twenty years. Based on detailed analysis of household expenditure data sets across East and Southern Africa, processed food inventories in eight cities of three countries, and ongoing survey research on rapidly growing and transforming value chains (teff in Ethiopia, poultry in Nigeria, and grain milling in Tanzania), this Policy Research Brief does three things: (1) summarizes the key research findings; (2) identifies the risks that these patterns of change imply for sustained and inclusive growth; and (3) highlights implications of the patterns and the implied risks for the design of policies and value chain programs in this dynamic environment