May 12 1997 Cme Event: I. a Simplified Model of the Pre-Eruptive Magnetic Structure

A simple model of the coronal magnetic field prior to the CME eruption on May 12 1997 is developed. First, the magnetic field is constructed by superimposing a large-scale background field and a localized bipolar field to model the active region (AR) in the current-free approximation. Second, this potential configuration is quasi-statically sheared by photospheric vortex motions applied to two flux concentrations of the AR. Third, the resulting force-free field is then evolved by canceling the photospheric magnetic flux with the help of an appropriate tangential electric field applied to the central part of the AR. To understand the structure of the modeled configuration, we use the field line mapping technique by generalizing it to spherical geometry. It is demonstrated that the initial potential configuration contains a hyperbolic flux tube (HFT) which is a union of two intersecting quasi-separatrix layers. This HFT provides a partition of the closed magnetic flux between the AR and the global solar magnetic field. The vortex motions applied to the AR interlock the field lines in the coronal volume to form additionally two new HFTs pinched into thin current layers. Reconnection in these current layers helps to redistribute the magnetic flux and current within the AR in the flux-cancellation phase. In this phase, a magnetic flux rope is formed together with a bald patch separatrix surface wrapping around the rope. Other important implications of the identified structural features of the modeled configuration are also discussed.Comment: 25 pages, 11 figures, to appear in ApJ 200

A novel metric for coronal MHD models

[1] In the interest of quantitatively assessing the capabilities of coronal MHD models, we have developed a metric that compares the structures of the white light corona observed with SOHO LASCO C2 to model predictions. The MAS model is compared to C2 observations from two Carrington rotations during solar cycle 23, CR1913 and CR1984, which were near the minimum and maximum of solar activity, respectively, for three radial heights, 2.5 R⊙, 3.0 R⊙, and 4.5 R⊙. In addition to simulated polarization brightness images, we create a synthetic image based on the field topology along the line of sight in the model. This open-closed brightness is also compared to LASCO C2 after renormalization. In general, the model\u27s magnetic structure is a closer match to observed coronal structures than the model\u27s density structure. This is expected from the simplified energy equations used in current global corona MHD models

A Hot Helium Plasma in the Galactic Center Region

Recent X-ray observations by the space mission Chandra confirmed the astonishing evidence for a diffuse, hot, thermal plasma at a temperature of 9. $10^7$ K (8 keV) found by previous surveys to extend over a few hundred parsecs in the Galactic Centre region. This plasma coexists with the usual components of the interstellar medium such as cold molecular clouds and a soft (~0.8 keV) component produced by supernova remnants, and its origin remains uncertain. First, simple calculations using a mean sound speed for a hydrogen-dominated plasma have suggested that it should not be gravitationally bound, and thus requires a huge energy source to heat it in less than the escape time. Second, an astrophysical mechanism must be found to generate such a high temperature. No known source has been identified to fulfill both requirements. Here we address the energetics problem and show that the hot component could actually be a gravitationally confined helium plasma. We illustrate the new prospects this opens by discussing the origin of this gas, and by suggesting possible heating mechanisms.Comment: 9 pages, accepted for publication in APJ

Early characterization of the severity and transmissibility of pandemic influenza using clinical episode data from multiple populations

The potential rapid availability of large-scale clinical episode data during the next influenza pandemic suggests an opportunity for increasing the speed with which novel respiratory pathogens can be characterized. Key intervention decisions will be determined by both the transmissibility of the novel strain (measured by the basic reproductive number R0) and its individual-level severity. The 2009 pandemic illustrated that estimating individual-level severity, as described by the proportion pC of infections that result in clinical cases, can remain uncertain for a prolonged period of time. Here, we use 50 distinct US military populations during 2009 as a retrospective cohort to test the hypothesis that real-time encounter data combined with disease dynamic models can be used to bridge this uncertainty gap. Effectively, we estimated the total number of infections in multiple early-affected communities using the model and divided that number by the known number of clinical cases. Joint estimates of severity and transmissibility clustered within a relatively small region of parameter space, with 40 of the 50 populations bounded by: pC, 0.0133-0.150 and R0, 1.09-2.16. These fits were obtained despite widely varying incidence profiles: some with spring waves, some with fall waves and some with both. To illustrate the benefit of specific pairing of rapidly available data and infectious disease models, we simulated a future moderate pandemic strain with pC approximately ×10 that of 2009; the results demonstrating that even before the peak had passed in the first affected population, R0 and pC could be well estimated. This study provides a clear reference in this two-dimensional space against which future novel respiratory pathogens can be rapidly assessed and compared with previous pandemics

Phonon and Elastic Instabilities in MoC and MoN

We present several results related to the instability of MoC and MoN in the B1 (sodium chloride) structure. These compounds were proposed as potential superconductors with moderately high transition temperatures. We show that the elastic instability in B1-structure MoN, demonstrated several years ago, persists at elevated pressures, thus offering little hope of stabilizing this material without chemical doping. For MoC, another material for which stoichiometric fabrication in the B1-structure has not proven possible, we find that all of the cubic elastic constants are positive, indicating elastic stability. Instead, we find X-point phonon instabilities in MoC (and in MoN as well), further illustrating the rich behavior of carbo-nitride materials. We also present additional electronic structure results for several transition metal (Zr, Nb and Mo) carbo-nitride systems and discuss systematic trends in the properties of these materials. Deviations from strict electron counting dependencies are apparent.Comment: 5 pages and 4 trailing figures. Submitted to PR

Metrics for solar wind prediction models: Comparison of empirical, hybrid, and physics-based schemes with 8 years of L1 observations

Space weather effects on technological systems originate with energy carried from the Sun to the terrestrial environment by the solar wind. In this study, we present results of modeling of solar corona-heliosphere processes to predict solar wind conditions at the L1 Lagrangian point upstream of Earth. In particular we calculate performance metrics for (1) empirical, (2) hybrid empirical/physics-based, and (3) full physics-based coupled corona-heliosphere models over an 8-year period (1995–2002). L1 measurements of the radial solar wind speed are the primary basis for validation of the coronal and heliosphere models studied, though other solar wind parameters are also considered. The models are from the Center for Integrated Space-Weather Modeling (CISM) which has developed a coupled model of the whole Sun-to-Earth system, from the solar photosphere to the terrestrial thermosphere. Simple point-by-point analysis techniques, such as mean-square-error and correlation coefficients, indicate that the empirical coronal-heliosphere model currently gives the best forecast of solar wind speed at 1 AU. A more detailed analysis shows that errors in the physics-based models are predominately the result of small timing offsets to solar wind structures and that the large-scale features of the solar wind are actually well modeled. We suggest that additional “tuning” of the coupling between the coronal and heliosphere models could lead to a significant improvement of their accuracy. Furthermore, we note that the physics-based models accurately capture dynamic effects at solar wind stream interaction regions, such as magnetic field compression, flow deflection, and density buildup, which the empirical scheme cannot

Evidence for topological nonequilibrium in magnetic configurations

We use direct numerical simulations to study the evolution, or relaxation, of magnetic configurations to an equilibrium state. We use the full single-fluid equations of motion for a magnetized, non-resistive, but viscous fluid; and a Lagrangian approach is used to obtain exact solutions for the magnetic field. As a result, the topology of the magnetic field remains unchanged, which makes it possible to study the case of topological nonequilibrium. We find two cases for which such nonequilibrium appears, indicating that these configurations may develop singular current sheets.Comment: 10 pages, 5 figure

Competition between Magnetic and Structural Transition in CrN

CrN is observed to undergo a paramagnetic to antiferromagnetic transition accompanied by a shear distortion from cubic NaCl-type to orthorhombic structure. Our first-principle plane wave and ultrasoft pseudopotential calculations confirm that the distorted antiferromagnetic phase with spin configuration arranged in double ferromagnetic sheets along [110] is the most stable. Antiferromagnetic ordering leads to a large depletion of states around Fermi level, but it does not open a gap. Simultaneous occurence of structural distortion and antiferromagnetic order is analyzed.Comment: 10 pages, 10 figure