Climate Security Observatory – GUATEMALA. Summary for policymakers

Guatemala is considered to be one of the most exposed and vulnerable countries in Latin America to climate variability and extreme weather events, as well as non-climatic natural events. It is also a primary hotspot for climate change, as it is highly exposed to extreme weather events like tropical storms and droughts and has low capacity to cope with these impacts. This profile, derived from the Climate Security Observatory, answers: 1) HOW does climate worsen the root causes of conflict? 2) WHERE are the most vulnerable areas to climate induced insecurities and risks? 3) WHO are the vulnerable groups to climate and security risks that should be targeted? and 4) WHAT needs to be done to break the cycle between climate and conflict

Tailoring the climate security observatory to livestock-related conflicts

The Climate Security Observatory (CSO) is a decision support tool helping policymakers and other practitioners to understand and respond to climate-related security risks. It currently covers broad aspects of the climate security nexus, describing overall relationships among the dimensions of climate, conflict and socioeconomic vulnerabilities over a multiannual timeframe, without in-depth analysis of specific components around e.g. livestock-related conflicts, migration aspects, or food systems. This report is meant to guide future work that includes livestock systems into the CSO. To visualize agro-pastoral conflict and understand its causes, factors and exacerbators, the general CSO questions, analysis and used data sources need to be tailored to livestock systems. The report will therefore review current CSO analysis and give recommendations on how to include livestock systems and pastoral conflicts

Food systems science for peace and security: Is research for development key for achieving systematic change?

This paper uses CGIAR research as an example to demonstrate the potential of food systems science to contribute to conflict prevention and peacebuilding. Conflict often arises through a complex process whose triggers and consequences are closely interconnected in feedback loops and linked to climate variability, environmental degradation and food insecurity. Conflicts are often approached from asymptomatic rather than a holistic perspective. We (i) review the literature on climate security to identify conflict pathways and related drivers. This serves as the basis for mapping CGIAR and partner research related to climate security through a portfolio review (ii) and facilitated multidisciplinary expert panel discussions (iii) we then define cross-cutting priorities for the future direction of climate security debates, policies and programmes and link them to the new OneCGIAR strategy

Interactive effects of altitude, microclimate and shading system on coffee leaf rust

Shade effects on coffee diseases are ambiguous because they vary depending on the season and environment. Using Coffee Leaf Rust (CLR) as an example, we demonstrate relationships between the environment and shading systems and their effects on disease intensity. We characterized seasonal variations in microclimate and CLR incidence across different altitudes and shading systems, and integrated effects between the environment, shading systems, microclimate and CLR into a piecewise structural equation model. The diurnal temperature range was higher in unshaded systems, but differences decreased with altitude. Humidity related indicators in shaded systems decreased with altitude. At mid and high altitudes, high CLR incidence occurred in the shading system showing a low diurnal temperature range and a high dew point temperature. Our study demonstrates how microclimatic indicators vary as a function of the season, altitude and the coffee shading system, and how this in turn is related to CLR

Characterisation of microclimatic indicators in coffee production systems under varying biophysical contexts and its relation to fungal coffee diseases

The comparison of performance of coffee under shaded and sun-exposed conditions has been explored in numerous studies. The beneficial effects of shading on coffee sustainability through the mitigation of microclimatic extremes have been quantified and are generally wellestablished. It has also been acknowledged that the extent to which shaded systems are advantageous depends on the biophysical context. Particularly in studies on pest and disease dynamics, this variability of shade effects across sites has resulted in contradictory assumptions. In this study, we (i) quantified microclimatic differences between three coffee production systems (coffee shaded by trees, (CT), intercropped with banana (CB), or sun exposed (CO) as a function of different environmental sites. We then (ii) related microclimatic indicators to the intensity of two fungal diseases (Coffee Leaf Rust (CLR), and Coffee Berry Disease, (CBD) of Arabica coffee. Along an altitudinal gradient from 1000 to 2200 m.a.s.l.) and in diverse production systems on the slopes of Mount Elgon, Uganda, we collected hourly data on temperature and relative humidity during the 2015/2016 season in 27 plots. Microclimatic indicators to compare included diurnal temperature range (DTR), the accumulated hours of relative humidity above 95 % (RH>95) during night, and the accumulated hours of temperatures below the dew point (Temp95 and Temp95. Our findings confirm the mitigation property of shading to microclimatic extremes. However, the widely accepted assumption of shade conserving moisture is not applicable considering the spatio-temporal context. (ii) The fact that unshaded systems at high altitudes expose better conditions for dew formation than compared to shaded systems could be a key mechanism explaining the high CBD intensity under unshaded systems and the contradictory CLR responses along the gradient of altitude and shading intensities

CGIAR’s contribution to peace: Portfolio Analysis

We conducted a portfolio analysis of CGIAR‘s ongoing portfolio that has potential to contribute to the prospects of peace. This portfolio analysis comprised two main working steps: 1) Information generation and 2) Visualization of portfolio results

How does climate exacerbate root causes of livestock-related conflicts in Kenya? An impact pathway analysis

This factsheet gives answers on how climate exacerbates root causes of livestock-related conflict in Kenya, using an impact pathway analysis. Three main impact pathways are identified: 1. Resource Access and Availability: Climate variability and extreme events are degrading natural resources and diminishing the availability of water and pasture, especially in the ASALs. A movement toward areas where there is relatively more availability of water than in the dry grasslands is leading to resource competition and conflict among pastoralist groups and between pastoralists and farmers. 2. Cattle Rustling and Raiding: The most prevalent form of conflict, particularly in the north of Kenya, is the violent theft of cattle, also known as cattle rustling. Although cattle rustling has historically served as a culturally embedded practice for wealth redistribution and as a rite of passage, the level of violence has increased due to the scarcity of natural resources induced by the effects of climate change. 3. Livelihood and food insecurity: The combination of climate change and conflict places severe pressure on the livelihood and food security of pastoralists, overburdening their adaptive capacities. The necessary and inherent mobility of transhumance is altered by the intensity of violence induced by conflict over resources, leading pastoralists to remain in place or choose longer distances for their migratory routes