Optimal Monetary Policy Response to Distortionary Tax Changes

We analyze the trade-offs faced by a monetary policy authority when a value added tax rate is increased. In the short run, such an increase acts as a cost push shock from the perspective of a central bank that is concerned with stabilizing the welfare relevant output gap. We develop a New Keynesian monetary model with real wage rigidity and consider the effects that obtain under a simple interest rate rule, on the one hand, and those that obtain under an optimal monetary policy from a timeless perspective (in the terminology of Woodford, 2003). The implications for the dynamic response of the economy differ in the presence of real wage rigidity. While under a rule inflation is higher for about eight quarters, the optimal policy involves an adjustment that is about half as long, and is followed by a slight deflation. The reason is that this policy can be shown to include a commitment to target a certain price-level, which helps contain inflation expectations. We treat the tax shock as permanent, so that the central bank does not fully revert the price level to its orginal level.Nominal and real rigidities, distortionary taxation, optimal monetary policy

The Janus-headed salvation: sovereign and bank credit risk premia during 2008-09

As the global banking crisis intensified in the fall of 2008, governments announced comprehensive rescue packages for financial institutions. In this paper, we put the joint response of euro area bank and sovereign CDS premia under the microscope. We find that the bank rescue packages led to a clear structural break in these premia's comovement, which had been rather tight and stable in the weeks preceding the in-tensification of the crisis. Firstly, the packages induced a decrease in risk spreads for banks at the expense of a marked increase in risk spreads for governments. Secondly, we show that in addition to this one-off jump in the levels of CDS spreads, the packages strongly increased the sensitivity of sovereign risk spreads to any further aggravation of the crisis. At the same time, the sensitivity of bank credit risk premia declined and became more sovereign-like, reflecting the extensive government guarantees of banking sector liabilities. JEL Classification: G15, G21credit default swaps, financial crisis, risk transfer

Money demand and macroeconomic uncertainty

In this study we construct a measure of macroeconomic uncertainty from several observable economic indicators for the euro area. Indicator variables are based on financial market data, such as medium-term returns, loss and volatility measures but also come from surveys that capture business and consumer sentiment. From these we estimate the path of underlying macroeconomic uncertainty using an unobserved components model. Employing cointegration analysis it is demonstrated that the extracted measures of uncertainty help to explain the increase in euro area M3 over the period 2001 to 2004. Similar evidence can be found for US monetary aggregates. --Money demand,Macroeconomic Uncertainty,Excess Liquidity

Predicting recession probabilities with financial variables over multiple horizons

We forecast recession probabilities for the United States, Germany and Japan. The predictions are based on the widely-used probit approach, but the dynamics of regressors are endogenized using a VAR. The combined model is called a ‘ProbVAR’. At any point in time, the ProbVAR allows to generate conditional recession probabilities for any sequence of forecast horizons. At the same time, the ProbVAR is as easy to implement as traditional probit regressions. The slope of the yield curve turns out to be a successful predictor, but forecasts can be markedly improved by adding other financial variables such as the short-term interest rate, stock returns or corporate bond spreads. The forecasting performance is very good for the United States: for the out-of-sample exercise (1995 to 2009), the best ProbVAR specification correctly identifies the ex-post classification of recessions and non-recessions 95% of the time for the one-quarter forecast horizon and 87% of the time for the four-quarter horizon. Moreover, the ProbVAR turns out to significantly improve upon survey forecasts. Relative to the good performance reached for the United States, the ProbVAR forecasts are slightly worse for Germany, but considerably inferior for Japan. JEL Classification: C25, C32, E32, E37forecasting, probit, recessions, VAR

Threshold dynmamics of short-term interest rates: empirical evidence and implications for the term structure

This paper studies a nonlinear one-factor term structure model in discrete time. The single factor is the short-term interest rate, which is modeled as a self-exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR) process. Our specification allows for shifts in the intercept and the variance. The process is stationary but mimics the nearly I(1) dynamics typically encountered with interest rates. In comparison with a linear model, we find empirical evidence in favor of the threshold model for Germany and the US. Based on the estimated short-rate dynamics we derive the implied arbitrage-free term structure of interest rates. Since analytical solutions are not feasible, bond prices are computed by means of Monte Carlo integration. The resulting term structure exhibits properties that are qualitatively similar to those observed in the data and which cannot be captured by the linear Gaussian one-factor model. In particular, our model captures the nonlinear relation between long rates and the short rate found in the data. --Non-affine term structure models,SETAR models,Asset pricing

Bond pricing when the short term interest rate follows a threshold process

Using a stochastic discount factor approach, we derive the exact solution for arbitrage-free bond yields for the case that the short-term interest rate follows a threshold process with the intercept switching endogenously. The yield functions, mapping the one-month rate into n-period yields, respectively. This is in contrast to linear short-rate process which imply an affine yield function. The intervals for which convexity or concavity prevails increase with time to maturity. --Threshold process,term structure of interest rates,nonlinear yield function

Influence of an electric field on grain growth and sintering in strontium titanate

Within the last five years considerable efforts were done in investigating electric field assisted sintering (flash sintering). However the experiments are hard to control: shrinkage occurs within seconds and the local temperature is undefined due to joule heating. Therefore the present study removes these two parameters by investigating grain growth under electric field in the no-current-case for strontium titanate. The impact of an electric field on grain growth in strontium titanate is investigated between 1350°C and 1550°C for fields of up to 50V/mm. To prevent joule heating by a current flowing through the material insulating Al2O3 plates separate the electrodes from the samples. The seeded polycrystal technique is used, which allows evaluating the grain boundary mobility without an influence of the grain boundary energy. The growth direction of the single crystalline seeds is perpendicular to the electric field; hence electrostatic forces do not influence the growth. Below 1425°C the influence of the electric field is weak. However above 1425°C the field results in an increase of the grain boundary mobility at the negative electrode. The range of this increase is in the order of ~1mm. It is shown that abnormal grain growth can be triggered by the electric field. Based on the experimental findings a model is established based on a shift of charged defects. The enhancement of the grain boundary mobility on the negative electrode is explained by an accumulation of oxygen vacancies. This accumulation induces a reduction of the material. A reduction of strontium titanate by atmosphere also results in an increase of the grain boundary mobility, which accords well with the observed behavior under electric field

The changing international transmission of financial shocks: evidence from a classical time-varying FAVAR

1971-2009. Financial shocks are defined as unexpected changes of a financial conditions index (FCI), recently developed by Hatzius et al. (2010), for the US. We use a time-varying factor-augmented VAR to model the FCI jointly with a large set of macroeconomic, financial and trade variables for nine major advanced countries. The main findings are as follows. First, positive US financial shocks have a considerable positive impact on growth in the nine countries, and vice versa for negative shocks. Second, the transmission to GDP growth in European countries has increased gradually since the 1980s, consistent with financial globalization. A more marked increase is detected in the early 1980s in the US itself, consistent with changes in the conduct of monetary policy. Third, the size of US financial shocks varies strongly over time, with the `global financial crisis shock' being very large by historical standards and explaining 30 percent of the variation in GDP growth on average over all countries in 2008-2009, compared to a little less than 10 percent over the 1971-2007 period. Finally, large collapses in house prices, exports and TFP are the main drivers of the strong worldwide propagation of US financial shocks during the crisis. --international business cycles,international transmission channels,financial markets,globalization,financial conditions index,global financial crisis,timevarying FAVAR

Classical time-varying FAVAR models - estimation, forecasting and structural analysis

We propose a classical approach to estimate factor-augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) models with time variation in the factor loadings, in the factor dynamics, and in the variance-covariance matrix of innovations. When the time-varying FAVAR is estimated using a large quarterly dataset of US variables from 1972 to 2007, the results indicate some changes in the factor dynamics, and more marked variation in the factors' shock volatility and their loading parameters. Forecasts from the time-varying FAVAR are more accurate than those from a constant parameter FAVAR for most variables and horizons when computed insample, for some variables in pseudo real time, mostly financial indicators. Finally, we use the time-varying FAVAR to assess how monetary transmission to the economy has changed. We find substantial time variation in the volatility of monetary policy shocks, and we observe that the reaction of GDP, the GDP deflator, inflation expectations and long-term interest rates to an equally-sized monetary policy shock has decreased since the early-1980s. --FAVAR,time-varying parameters,monetary transmission,forecasting