A systematic comparison of professional exchange rate forecasts with judgmental forecasts of novices : Are there substantial differences?

The study at hand deals with the expectations of professional analysts and novices in the context of foreign exchange markets. We analyze the respective forecasting accuracy and our results indicate that there exist substantial differences between professional forecasts and judgmental forecasts of novices. In search of reasonable explanations for the astonishing result, we evaluate the nature of professional and experimental expectations in more detail and find that while professional exchange rate forecasts seem to be biased predictors for the future exchange rates, judgmental forecasts appear to be unbiased. Furthermore, professional forecasters consistently expect a reversal of forgoing exchange rate changes whereas novices expect a continuation of current movements in the short-run and are reversed in the long-run. --Foreign exchange market,forecasting,behavioral finance,anchoring heuristics,judgment,expertise,expectation formation

Convex pricing by a generalized entropy penalty

In an incomplete Brownian-motion market setting, we propose a convex monotonic pricing functional for nonattainable bounded contingent claims which is compatible with prices for attainable claims. The pricing functional is defined as the convex conjugate of a generalized entropy penalty functional and an interpretation in terms of tracking with instantaneously vanishing risk can be given.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/07-AAP466 the Annals of Applied Probability (http://www.imstat.org/aap/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Biases of professional exchange rate forecasts: Psychological explanations and an experimentally based comparison to novices

The empirical performance of macroeconomic exchange rate models is more than disappointing. This dismal result is also reflected in the forecasting capabilities of professional analysts: all in all, analysts are not in a position to beat naïve random walk forecasts. The root for this deficient outcome stems from the fact that professional forecasts are to a large extend influenced by actual changes in exchange rates. A reasonable explanation for this behaviour can be taken from the behavioural finance literature. To test whether this characteristic tends to be general human behaviour in an uncertain environment, we analyse the forecasting behaviour of students experimentally, using a simulated currency series. Our results indicate that a topically oriented trend adjustment behaviour (TOTA) is a general characteristic of human forecasting behaviour. Additionally, we apply a simple model to explain professional and students forecasts. --Foreign exchange market,forecasting,behavioural finance,anchoring heuristics,judgement,expertise

FDI in Azerbaijan: A Structural Analysis of the Business Environment

Although Azerbaijan could be an attractive destination for international business endeavors, there are massive barriers in practice. The national economy of Azerbaijan is divided among several clientelistic networks, capturing state institutions in order to back their own business activities and keep out competitors. Opportunities are limited to areas in which international firms channel technology into the country that cannot be provided locally. However, even in such cases, Western enterprises still have to comply with the particularities, rules and norms of the local clientelistic system in order to be successful

Convergence of Arbitrage-free Discrete Time Markovian Market Models

We consider two sequences of Markov chains induc- ing equivalent measures on the discrete path space. We estab- lish conditions under which these two measures converge weakly to measures induced on the Wiener space by weak solutions of two SDEs, which are unique in the sense of probability law. We are going to look at the relation between these two limits and at the convergence and limits of a wide class of bounded function- als of the Markov chains. The limit measures turn out not to be equivalent in general. The results are applied to a sequence of discrete time market models given by anobjective probability measure, describing the stochastic dynamics of the state of the market, and an equivalent martingale measure determining prices of contingent claims. The relation between equivalent martingale measure, state prices, market price of risk and the term structure of interest rates is examined. The results lead to a modification of the Black-Scholes formula and an explanation for the surpris- ing fact that continuous-time arbitrage-free markets are complete under weak technical conditions.

Regionalpark Murauen – ressourcenschonende, anrainergerechte Naherholung in wachsenden Stadtregionen

Der globale Trend vom Zuzug in die Städte bzw. in das Stadtumland hält auch in der Stadtregion Graz an. Die Agglomerationszone um die Kernstadt Graz konzentriert sich aufgrund ihrer topographischen Beckenlage vor allem auf das südlich gelegene flache Grazer Feld und führt zu einer Verflechtung unterschiedlicher Nutzungsinteressen auf begrenztem Raum und somit zu einem ansteigenden Nutzungsdruck auf verbliebene Freiflächen. Speziell die Murauen stellen in der Stadtregion Graz ein attraktives Naherholungsziel für die Bevölkerung der angrenzenden Gemeinden dar. Der zunehmende Nutzungsdruck birgt jedoch zahlreiche Konflikte zwischen den Erholungssuchenden, den ansässigen Land- und Forstwirten, der Jägerschaft und dem Naturschutz. Diese wurden in den letzten Jahren durch die Errichtung von Wasserkraftwerken und die damit verbundene Verbesserung der Zugänglichkeit von vormals „abseits“ gelegenen Landschaftsräumen verstärkt. Am rechten Murufer wurden in den letzten Jahren als Ausgleich für den Kraftwerksbau zudem zahlreiche ökologische Maßnahmen gesetzt. Demzufolge ist in diesem Flußabschnitt Erholungsnutzung nicht erwünscht. Im Rahmen des Projektes „Regionalpark Murauen“ (2013-2015) wurden die Akteure der Region in einen Kommunikationsprozess eingebunden, um die Potenziale der Freiräume zu erkennen und regionale Identitäten zu definieren. Gemeinsam wurden räumliche und thematische Handlungsschwerpunkte erarbeitet und Pilotprojekte für eine multifunktionale Entwicklung der städtisch geprägten Region initiiert. Seither ist der Nutzungsdruck auf die erweiterte Stadtlandschaft weiter gestiegen und damit einhergehend die Notwendigkeit der Verdichtung von Besucherlenkungsmaßnahmen. Das aktuelle, vom Regionalmanagement Steirischer Zentralraum initiierte, Folgeprojekt „NaMUR Besucherlenkung Murauen“ soll daher in diesem Naherholungsgebiet vor den Türen von Graz eine sanfte Nutzung ermöglichen und die wachsenden sozioökonomischen und naturräumlichen Konflikte durch ein gezieltes interkommunales Kommunikations- und Konfliktmanagement abbauen. Am Projektende werden ein abgestimmtes Besucherlenkungskonzept, ein Maßnahmenplan sowie Vorbereitungen für dessen Umsetzung vorliegen

Optimizing Code Generation from SSA Form: A Comparison Between Two Formal Correctness Proofs in Isabelle/HOL

AbstractCorrectness of compilers is a vital precondition for the correctness of the software translated by them. In this paper, we present two approaches for the formalization of static single assignment (SSA) form together with two corresponding formal proofs in the Isabelle/HOL system, each showing the correctness of code generation. Our comparison between the two proofs shows that it is very important to find adequate formalizations in formal proofs since they can simplify the verification task considerably. Our formal correctness proofs do not only verify the correctness of a certain class of code generation algorithms but also give us sufficient, easily checkable correctness criteria characterizing correct compilation results obtained from implementations (compilers) of these algorithms. These correctness criteria can be used in a compiler result checker

Brassinosteroid signaling delimits root gravitropism via sorting of the Arabidopsis PIN2 auxin transporter

Arabidopsis PIN2 protein directs transport of the phytohormone auxin from the root tip into the root elongation zone. Variation in hormone transport, which depends on a delicate interplay between PIN2 sorting to and from polar plasma membrane domains, determines root growth. By employing a constitutively degraded version of PIN2, we identify brassinolides as antagonists of PIN2 endocytosis. This response does not require de novo protein synthesis, but involves early events in canonical brassinolide signaling. Brassinolide-controlled adjustments in PIN2 sorting and intracellular distribution governs formation of a lateral PIN2 gradient in gravistimulated roots, coinciding with adjustments in auxin signaling and directional root growth. Strikingly, simulations indicate that PIN2 gradient formation is no prerequisite for root bending but rather dampens asymmetric auxin flow and signaling. Crosstalk between brassinolide signaling and endocytic PIN2 sorting, thus, appears essential for determining the rate of gravity-induced root curvature via attenuation of differential cell elongation

The impact of ABO blood type on the prevalence of portal vein thrombosis in patients with advanced chronic liver disease

Background and aimsNon-O blood type (BT) is a risk factor for thromboses, which has been attributed to its effects on von Willebrand factor (VWF)/factor VIII (FVIII) levels. Although high VWF/FVIII may be risk factors for portal vein thrombosis (PVT) in patients with advanced chronic liver disease (ACLD), the impact of BT on PVT is unknown. We aimed to assess (I) whether non-O-BT is a risk factor for PVT and (II) whether non-O-BT impacts VWF/factor VIII in patients with ACLD. MethodsRetrospective analysis comprising two cohorts: (I) "US" including all adult liver transplantations in the US in the MELD era and (II) "Vienna" comprising patients with a hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) >= 6 mmHg. Results(I) The "US cohort" included 84 947 patients (non-O: 55.43%). The prevalence of PVT at the time of listing (4.37% vs 4.56%; P = .1762) and at liver transplantation (9.56% vs 9.33%; P = .2546) was similar in patients with O- and non-O-BT. (II) 411 patients were included in the "Vienna cohort" (non-O: 64%). Mean HVPG was 18(9) mmHg and 90% had an HVPG >= 10 mmHg. Patients with non-O-BT had slightly increased VWF levels (318(164)% vs 309(176)%; P = .048; increase of 23.8%-23.9% in adjusted analyses), but this difference was driven by patients with less advanced disease. However, non-O-BT explained only 1% of the variation in VWF and had no effect on FVIII. ConclusionsAlthough non-O-BT impacts VWF in patients with early stage ACLD, its contribution to VWF variation is considerably smaller than in the general population. Moreover, non-O-BT had no impact on FVIII. These findings may explain the absence of an association between non-O-BT and PVT in patients with advanced cirrhosis