Spatial and temporal dynamics of malaria transmission in rural western Kenya

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Understanding the impact of reducing Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission requires estimates of the relationship between health outcomes and exposure to infectious mosquitoes. However, measures of exposure such as mosquito density and entomological inoculation rate (EIR) are generally aggregated over large areas and time periods, biasing the outcome-exposure relationship. There are few studies examining the extent and drivers of local variation in malaria exposure in endemic areas. METHODS: We describe the spatio-temporal dynamics of malaria transmission intensity measured by mosquito density and EIR in the KEMRI/CDC health and demographic surveillance system using entomological data collected during 2002-2004. Geostatistical zero inflated binomial and negative binomial models were applied to obtain location specific (house) estimates of sporozoite rates and mosquito densities respectively. Model-based predictions were multiplied to estimate the spatial pattern of annual entomological inoculation rate, a measure of the number of infective bites a person receive per unit of time. The models included environmental and climatic predictors extracted from satellite data, harmonic seasonal trends and parameters describing space-time correlation. RESULTS: Anopheles gambiae s.l was the main vector species accounting for 86% (n=2309) of the total collected mosquitoes with the remainder being Anopheles funestus. Sixty eight percent (757/1110) of the surveyed houses had no mosquitoes. Distance to water bodies, vegetation and day temperature were significantly associated with mosquito density. Overall annual point estimates of EIR were 6.7, 9.3 and 9.6 infectious bites per annum for 2002, 2003 and 2004 respectively. Monthly mosquito density and EIR varied over the study period peaking in May during the wet season. The predicted and observed densities and EIR showed a strong seasonal and spatial pattern over the study area. CONCLUSIONS: Spatio-temporal maps of malaria transmission intensity obtained in this study are not only useful in understanding variability in malaria epidemiology over small areas but also provides a high resolution exposure surface that can be used to analyse the impact of malaria exposure on mortalit

Health Care-Seeking Behavior During Childhood Diarrheal Illness: Results of Health Care Utilization and Attitudes Surveys of Caretakers in Western Kenya, 2007-2010

We interviewed caretakers of 1,043 children 20,000 children on five separate subsequent occasions (May of 2009 to December 31, 2010) to assess healthcare seeking patterns for diarrhea. Diarrhea prevalence during the preceding 2 weeks ranged from 26% at baseline to 4–11% during 2009–2010. Caretakers were less likely to seek healthcare outside the home for infants (versus older children) with diarrhea (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 0.33, confidence interval [CI] = 0.12–0.87). Caretakers of children with reduced food intake (aOR = 3.42, CI = 1.37–8.53) and sunken eyes during their diarrheal episode were more likely to seek care outside home (aOR = 4.76, CI = 1.13–8.89). Caretakers with formal education were more likely to provide oral rehydration solution (aOR = 3.01, CI = 1.41–6.42) and visit a healthcare facility (aOR = 3.32, CI = 1.56–7.07). Studies calculating diarrheal incidence and healthcare seeking should account for seasonal trends. Improving caretakers' knowledge of home management could prevent severe diarrhea

ShoRAH: estimating the genetic diversity of a mixed sample from next-generation sequencing data

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>With next-generation sequencing technologies, experiments that were considered prohibitive only a few years ago are now possible. However, while these technologies have the ability to produce enormous volumes of data, the sequence reads are prone to error. This poses fundamental hurdles when genetic diversity is investigated.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We developed ShoRAH, a computational method for quantifying genetic diversity in a mixed sample and for identifying the individual clones in the population, while accounting for sequencing errors. The software was run on simulated data and on real data obtained in wet lab experiments to assess its reliability.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>ShoRAH is implemented in C++, Python, and Perl and has been tested under Linux and Mac OS X. Source code is available under the GNU General Public License at <url>http://www.cbg.ethz.ch/software/shorah</url>.</p

Increasing Drug Resistance in Extensively Drug-Resistant Tuberculosis, South Africa

We expanded second-line tuberculosis (TB) drug susceptibility testing for extensively drug-resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates from South Africa. Of 19 patients with extensively drug-resistant TB identified during February 2008–April 2009, 13 (68%) had isolates resistant to all 8 drugs tested. This resistance leaves no effective treatment with available drugs in South Africa

Adult non-communicable disease mortality in Africa and Asia: evidence from INDEPTH Health and Demographic Surveillance System sites.

BACKGROUND: Mortality from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) is a major global issue, as other categories of mortality have diminished and life expectancy has increased. The World Health Organization's Member States have called for a 25% reduction in premature NCD mortality by 2025, which can only be achieved by substantial reductions in risk factors and improvements in the management of chronic conditions. A high burden of NCD mortality among much older people, who have survived other hazards, is inevitable. The INDEPTH Network collects detailed individual data within defined Health and Demographic Surveillance sites. By registering deaths and carrying out verbal autopsies to determine cause of death across many such sites, using standardised methods, the Network seeks to generate population-based mortality statistics that are not otherwise available. OBJECTIVE: To describe patterns of adult NCD mortality from INDEPTH Network sites across Africa and Asia, according to the WHO 2012 verbal autopsy (VA) cause categories, with separate consideration of premature (15-64 years) and older (65+ years) NCD mortality. DESIGN: All adult deaths at INDEPTH sites are routinely registered and followed up with VA interviews. For this study, VA archives were transformed into the WHO 2012 VA standard format and processed using the InterVA-4 model to assign cause of death. Routine surveillance data also provide person-time denominators for mortality rates. RESULTS: A total of 80,726 adult (over 15 years) deaths were documented over 7,423,497 person-years of observation. NCDs were attributed as the cause for 35.6% of these deaths. Slightly less than half of adult NCD deaths occurred in the 15-64 age group. Detailed results are presented by age and sex for leading causes of NCD mortality. Per-site rates of NCD mortality were significantly correlated with rates of HIV/AIDS-related mortality. CONCLUSIONS: These findings present important evidence on the distribution of NCD mortality across a wide range of African and Asian settings. This comes against a background of global concern about the burden of NCD mortality, especially among adults aged under 70, and provides an important baseline for future work

HIV-Associated TB in An Giang Province, Vietnam, 2001–2004: Epidemiology and TB Treatment Outcomes

BACKGROUND: Mortality is high in HIV-infected TB patients, but few studies from Southeast Asia have documented the benefits of interventions, such as co-trimoxazole (CTX), in reducing mortality during TB treatment. To help guide policy in Vietnam, we studied the epidemiology of HIV-associated TB in one province and examined factors associated with outcomes, including the impact of CTX use. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We retrospectively abstracted data for all HIV-infected persons diagnosed with TB from 2001-2004 in An Giang, a province in southern Vietnam in which TB patients receive HIV counseling and testing. We used standard WHO definitions to classify TB treatment outcomes. We conducted multivariate analysis to identify risk factors for the composite outcome of death, default, or treatment failure during TB treatment. From 2001-2004, 637 HIV-infected TB patients were diagnosed in An Giang. Of these, 501 (79%) were male, 321 (50%) were aged 25-34 years, and the most common self-reported HIV risk factor was sex with a commercial sex worker in 221 (35%). TB was classified as smear-positive in 531 (83%). During TB treatment, 167 (26%) patients died, 9 (1%) defaulted, and 6 (1%) failed treatment. Of 454 patients who took CTX, 116 (26%) had an unsuccessful outcome compared with 33 (70%) of 47 patients who did not take CTX (relative risk, 0.4; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.3-0.5). Adjusting for male sex, rural residence, TB smear status and disease location, and the occurrence of adverse events during TB treatment in multivariate analysis, the benefit of CTX persisted (adjusted odds ratio for unsuccessful outcome 0.1; CI, 0.1-0.3). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: In An Giang, Vietnam, HIV-associated TB was associated with poor TB treatment outcomes. Outcomes were significantly better in those taking CTX. This finding suggests that Vietnam should consider applying WHO recommendations to prescribe CTX to all HIV-infected TB patients

Risk of Injection-Site Abscess among Infants Receiving a Preservative-Free, Two-Dose Vial Formulation of Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine in Kenya.

There is a theoretical risk of adverse events following immunization with a preservative-free, 2-dose vial formulation of 10-valent-pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV10). We set out to measure this risk. Four population-based surveillance sites in Kenya (total annual birth cohort of 11,500 infants) were used to conduct a 2-year post-introduction vaccine safety study of PCV10. Injection-site abscesses occurring within 7 days following vaccine administration were clinically diagnosed in all study sites (passive facility-based surveillance) and, also, detected by caregiver-reported symptoms of swelling plus discharge in two sites (active household-based surveillance). Abscess risk was expressed as the number of abscesses per 100,000 injections and was compared for the second vs first vial dose of PCV10 and for PCV10 vs pentavalent vaccine (comparator). A total of 58,288 PCV10 injections were recorded, including 24,054 and 19,702 identified as first and second vial doses, respectively (14,532 unknown vial dose). The risk ratio for abscess following injection with the second (41 per 100,000) vs first (33 per 100,000) vial dose of PCV10 was 1.22 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.37-4.06). The comparator vaccine was changed from a 2-dose to 10-dose presentation midway through the study. The matched odds ratios for abscess following PCV10 were 1.00 (95% CI 0.12-8.56) and 0.27 (95% CI 0.14-0.54) when compared to the 2-dose and 10-dose pentavalent vaccine presentations, respectively. In Kenya immunization with PCV10 was not associated with an increased risk of injection site abscess, providing confidence that the vaccine may be safely used in Africa. The relatively higher risk of abscess following the 10-dose presentation of pentavalent vaccine merits further study

Characteristics and Treatment Outcomes of Patients with MDR and XDR Tuberculosis in a TB Referral Hospital in Beijing: A 13-Year Experience

Background: Information on treatment outcomes among hospitalized patients with multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) and extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis (XDR-TB) are scarce in China. Methodology/Principal Findings: We conducted this retrospective study to analyze the characteristics and treatment outcomes in MDR- and XDR-TB patients in the 309 Hospital in Beijing, China during 1996-2009. Socio-demographic and clinical data were retrieved from medical records and analyzed. Logistic regression analysis was performed to identify risk factors associated with poor treatment outcomes and Cox proportional hazards regression model was further used to determine risk factors associated with death in TB patients. Among the 3,551 non-repetitive hospitalized TB patients who had drug susceptibility testing (DST) results, 716 (20.2%) had MDR-TB and 51 (1.4%) had XDR-TB. A total of 3,270 patients who had medical records available were used for further analyses. Treatment success rates (cured and treatment completed) were 90.9%, 53.4% and 29.2% for patients with non-MDR-TB, patients with MDR-TB excluding XDR-TB and patients with XDR-TB, respectively. Independent risk factors associated with poor treatment outcomes in MDR-TB patients included being a migrant (adjusted OR = 1.77), smear-positivity at treatment onset (adjusted OR = 1.94) and not receiving 3 or more potentially effective drugs (adjusted OR = 3.87). Independent risk factors associated with poor treatment outcomes in XDR-TB patients were smear-positivity at treatment onset (adjusted OR = 10.42) and not receiving 3 or more potentially effective drugs (adjusted OR = 14.90). The independent risk factors associated with death in TB patients were having chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (adjusted HR = 5.25) and having hypertension (adjusted HR = 4.31). Conclusions/Significance: While overall satisfactory treatment success for non-MDR-TB patients was achieved, more intensive efforts should be made to better manage MDR- and XDR-TB cases in order to improve their treatment outcomes and to minimize further emergence of so-called totally drug-resistant TB cases. © 2011 Liu et al.published_or_final_versio