Do alternative weighting approaches for an Index of Multiple Deprivation change the association with mortality? A sensitivity analysis from Germany

Objectives This study aimed to assess the impact of using different weighting procedures for the German Index of Multiple Deprivation (GIMD) investigating their link to mortality rates. Design and setting In addition to the original (normative) weighting of the GIMD domains, four alternative weighting approaches were applied: equal weighting, linear regression, maximization algorithm and factor analysis. Correlation analyses to quantify the association between the differently weighted GIMD versions and mortality based on district-level official data from Germany in 2010 were applied (n=412 districts). Outcome measures Total mortality (all age groups) and premature mortality (<65 years). Results All correlations of the GIMD versions with both total and premature mortality were highly significant (p<0.001). The comparison of these associations using Williams's t-test for paired correlations showed significant differences, which proved to be small in respect to absolute values of Spearman's rho (total mortality: between 0.535 and 0.615;premature mortality: between 0.699 and 0.832). Conclusions The association between area deprivation and mortality proved to be stable, regardless of different weighting of the GIMD domains. The theory-based weighting of the GIMD should be maintained, due to the stability of the GIMD scores and the relationship to mortality

A Validated Finite Element Model for Room Acoustic Treatments with Edge Absorbers

Porous acoustic absorbers have excellent properties in the low-frequency range when positioned in room edges, therefore they are a common method for reducing low-frequency reverberation. However, standard room acoustic simulation methods such as ray tracing and mirror sources are invalid for low frequencies in general which is a consequence of using geometrical methods, yielding a lack of simulation tools for these so-called edge absorbers. In this article, a validated finite element simulation model is presented, which is able to predict the effect of an edge absorber on the acoustic field. With this model, the interaction mechanisms between room and absorber can be studied by high-resolved acoustic field visualizations in both room and absorber. The finite element model is validated against transfer function data computed from impulse response measurements in a reverberation chamber in style of ISO 354. The absorber made of Basotect is modeled using the Johnson-Champoux-Allard-Lafarge model, which is fitted to impedance tube measurements using the four-microphone transfer matrix method. It is shown that the finite element simulation model is able to predict the influence of different edge absorber configurations on the measured transfer functions to a high degree of accuracy. The evaluated third-octave band error exhibits deviations of 3.25dB to 4.11dB computed from third-octave band averaged spectra.Comment: 20 pages, 16 figures, 3 tables, Preprint submitted to Acta Acustic

Restoring Degraded Lands

Land degradation continues to be an enormous challenge to human societies, reducing food security, emitting greenhouse gases and aerosols, driving the loss of biodiversity, polluting water, and undermining a wide range of ecosystem services beyond food supply and water and climate regulation. Climate change will exacerbate several degradation processes. Investment in diverse restoration efforts, including sustainable agricultural and forest land management, as well as land set aside for conservation wherever possible, will generate co-benefits for climate change mitigation and adaptation and morebroadly for human and societal well-being and the economy. This review highlights the magnitude of the degradation problem and some of the key challenges for ecological restoration. There are biophysical as well as societal limits to restoration. Better integrating policies to jointly address poverty, land degradation, and greenhouse gas emissions and removals is fundamental to reducing many existing barriers and contributing to climate-resilient sustainable development.</p

Restoring Degraded Lands

Land degradation continues to be an enormous challenge to human societies, reducing food security, emitting greenhouse gases and aerosols, driving the loss of biodiversity, polluting water, and undermining a wide range of ecosystem services beyond food supply and water and climate regulation. Climate change will exacerbate several degradation processes. Investment in diverse restoration efforts, including sustainable agricultural and forest land management, as well as land set aside for conservation wherever possible, will generate co-benefits for climate change mitigation and adaptation and morebroadly for human and societal well-being and the economy. This review highlights the magnitude of the degradation problem and some of the key challenges for ecological restoration. There are biophysical as well as societal limits to restoration. Better integrating policies to jointly address poverty, land degradation, and greenhouse gas emissions and removals is fundamental to reducing many existing barriers and contributing to climate-resilient sustainable development

Science-based approach for credible accounting of mitigation in managed forests

Abstract Background The credibility and effectiveness of country climate targets under the Paris Agreement requires that, in all greenhouse gas (GHG) sectors, the accounted mitigation outcomes reflect genuine deviations from the type and magnitude of activities generating emissions in the base year or baseline. This is challenging for the forestry sector, as the future net emissions can change irrespective of actual management activities, because of age-related stand dynamics resulting from past management and natural disturbances. The solution implemented under the Kyoto Protocol (2013–2020) was accounting mitigation as deviation from a projected (forward-looking) “forest reference level”, which considered the age-related dynamics but also allowed including the assumed future implementation of approved policies. This caused controversies, as unverifiable counterfactual scenarios with inflated future harvest could lead to credits where no change in management has actually occurred, or conversely, failing to reflect in the accounts a policy-driven increase in net emissions. Instead, here we describe an approach to set reference levels based on the projected continuation of documented historical forest management practice, i.e. reflecting age-related dynamics but not the future impact of policies. We illustrate a possible method to implement this approach at the level of the European Union (EU) using the Carbon Budget Model. Results Using EU country data, we show that forest sinks between 2013 and 2016 were greater than that assumed in the 2013–2020 EU reference level under the Kyoto Protocol, which would lead to credits of 110–120 Mt CO2/year (capped at 70–80 Mt CO2/year, equivalent to 1.3% of 1990 EU total emissions). By modelling the continuation of management practice documented historically (2000–2009), we show that these credits are mostly due to the inclusion in the reference levels of policy-assumed harvest increases that never materialized. With our proposed approach, harvest is expected to increase (12% in 2030 at EU-level, relative to 2000–2009), but more slowly than in current forest reference levels, and only because of age-related dynamics, i.e. increased growing stocks in maturing forests. Conclusions Our science-based approach, compatible with the EU post-2020 climate legislation, helps to ensure that only genuine deviations from the continuation of historically documented forest management practices are accounted toward climate targets, therefore enhancing the consistency and comparability across GHG sectors. It provides flexibility for countries to increase harvest in future reference levels when justified by age-related dynamics. It offers a policy-neutral solution to the polarized debate on forest accounting (especially on bioenergy) and supports the credibility of forest sector mitigation under the Paris Agreement

Implications of differing input data sources and approaches upon forest carbon stock estimation

Site index is an important forest inventory attribute that relates productivity and growth expectation of forests over time. In forest inventory programs, site index is used in conjunction with other forest inventory attributes (i.e., height, age) for the estimation of stand volume. In turn, stand volumes are used to estimate biomass (and biomass components) and enable conversion to carbon. In this research, we explore the implications and consequences of different estimates of site index on carbon stock characterization for a 2,500-ha Douglas-fir-dominated landscape located on Eastern Vancouver Island, British Columbia, Canada. We compared site index estimates from an existing forest inventory to estimates generated from a combination of forest inventory and light detection and ranging (LIDAR)-derived attributes and then examined the resultant differences in biomass estimates generated from a carbon budget model (Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS3)). Significant differences were found between the original and LIDAR-derived site indices for all species types and for the resulting 5-m site classes (p &lt; 0.001). The LIDAR-derived site class was greater than the original site class for 42{\%} of stands; however, 77{\%} of stands were within +/-1 site class of the original class. Differences in biomass estimates between the model scenarios were significant for both total stand biomass and biomass per hectare (p &lt; 0.001); differences for Douglas-fir-dominated stands (representing 85{\%} of all stands) were not significant (p = 0.288). Overall, the relationship between the two biomass estimates was strong (R(2) = 0.92, p &lt; 0.001), suggesting that in certain circumstances, LIDAR may have a role to play in site index estimation and biomass mapping

Temporally-differentiated biogenic carbon accounting of wood building product life cycles

ABSTRACT: Although standards have identified temporary carbon storage as an important element to consider in wood product LCAs, there has been no consensus on a methodology for its accounting. This work aims to improve the accounting of carbon storage and fluxes in long-life wood products in LCA. Biogenic carbon from harvested roundwood logs were tracked using the Carbon Budget Model Framework for Harvested Wood Products (CBMF-HWP). Carbon flows through wood product manufacturing, building life and end-of-life phases, and carbon stocks and fluxes from harvest to the atmosphere were estimated. To cover the products commonly used in the Canadian building industry, a range of softwood products types, provinces and territories and building lifetimes were considered. In addition, policy scenarios were considered in order to model the effects of dynamic parameters through time as a policy target is reached. Most wood products have similar emissions profiles, though cross-laminated timber has higher sawmill emissions and oriented-strand board has higher initial post-demolition emissions. The region of construction is also predictive of the initial post-demolition emissions. Higher recycling rates shift materials from landfills into subsequent product systems, thus avoiding landfill emissions. Landfill decay rates are affected by climate and results in a large range of landfill emissions. The degree of postponement of end-of-life emissions is highly dependent upon the wood product type, region and building lifespan parameters. This work develops biogenic carbon profiles that allows for modelling dynamic cradle-to-grave LCAs of Canadian wood products

Forests, bioenergy and climate change mitigation: are the worries justified?

No abstract availabl