E-valimistest osavõtmise tegurid ja kogemus

Purpose of the study The purpose of the study was to examine the voting experience of Estonian e-voters during the local elections in fall 2005 and identify the profile of the e-voter. Specific research questions where as following: Q1: What is the level of political participation of the e-voter? Q2: What technical skills and opportunities do e-voters have? Q3: How do e-voters describe the current e-voting experience? Method Empirical data was gathered using the internet-based questionnaire. Questions were presented to the public during one week after the election day from October 17-23, 2005. Total number of e-voters who participated in current electronic elections was 9287. A selection of 324 answered the questionnaire. E-voters were invited to answer the questionnaire through the online advertising in the Estonian largest newspaper online edition and information letters were sent to eight large mailing lists including academic, governmental and private institutions. The social demographic profile of the selection reads as following: 15% represent a younger generation of e-voters aged 18-24; 46% aged 25-34; 54% live in Tallinn, the capital of Estonia, 22% in Tartu, the second biggest town in Estonia. 62% of the people who answered the questionnaire were male, 38% female. Personal income of 45% of the total selection exceeds 7000 EEK. 68% held a bachelor or higher degree. Key findings Despite the small number of e-voters, those who voted considered their e-voting experience positive and they would like to have an e-voting opportunity in future ballots. The risks associated with the credibility of the e-voting system predicted by many technical experts were not significant. On the contrary, the well deployed, tried and tested internet banking ensured a sufficient reliability and credibility rate to e-voters. It was also visible that the credibility rate that was given to the internet banking transformed into credibility rate of the state as a software developer. Since the experience was positive and the rate of credibility relatively high, the e-voter agrees to recommend e-voting to his friends and acts as reference partner to new e- voters. This situation allows the government to adopt methods of affiliate marketing in future electronic elections and this may increase the number of e-voters. If it has a short term impact on the general growth of voting activity is questionable. The level of political participation of e-voters is high. They are people with certain political preferences and they are convinced that voting is something not to be missed even despite the poor weather. Since the rate of political participation of the e-voter is high, it is questionable if e-voting affects general voting activity in the short-term. E- voting is rather an alternative to the traditional ballot and the main motive to participate in e-voting is convenience. However, we predict increasing voter turnout that proceeds from the growing number of e-services consumers and persistent governmental marketing of e-voting as an alternative and convenient mean to vote. E-voters are technically competent, skilful at using computers and e-services and they have excellent access to the internet. Contrary to our prediction, technological barriers (such as the installment of the ID-card reader) were marked as irrelevant. Moreover, there was a considerable number of people who purchased ID-card in order to participate in e-voting. E-voters expressed their satisfaction with the e-voting system

E-valimistest osavõtmise tegurid ja kogemus. E-valijate võrdlev analüüs 2005. aasta kohalike valimiste ja 2007. aasta Riigikogu valimiste põhjal

Purpose of the study The purpose of the study was to provide comparative analysis to the voting experience of Estonian e-voters during the local elections in fall 2005 and spring 2007. The aim was to identify a social and political profile of the e-voter. Specific research questions where as following: Q1: What changes occur in e-voters characteristics in 2005 and 2007 survey results? Q2: Are there any evidences allowing a prediction of a future behaviour of the e-voter? Q3: What characteristics are statistically significant in describing e-voters? Method Empirical data was gathered using the internet-based questionnaires in both 2005 and 2007 surveys. Questions were presented to the public during one week after the election day. Total number of e-voters who participated in electronic elections was 9287 in 2005 and 30243 in 2007. A selection of 324 answered the questionnaire in 2005 and 1206 in 2007. E-voters were invited to answer the questionnaire through the online advertising in the Estonian largest newspapers online editions and information letters were sent to mailing lists including academic, governmental and private institutions. Additionally a representative survey was carried out among 802 respondents in which specific questions regarding e-voting was presented to the general public. Key findings Despite the growing number of e-voters they have remained technically competent, skilful at using computers and e-services and they have excellent access to the internet. Valuations regarding their computer skills remain high even among those who had negative experiences with e-voting system. Technical obstacles (such as the instalment of the ID-card reader or entering the e-voting system) seem not to have an effect of e-voters self-reflexive valuations about their computer skills. Contrary to our predictions, technological barriers are in 2007 even less significant than in 2005. Moreover, instrumental characteristics are improved despite the growing number of e-voters. These characteristics are statistically most significant in describing the e-voter. The level of political participation has decreased in 2007 as a result of a broader sample and a larger number of e-voters. Therefore, results regarding political participation are more balanced with the overall population. However, those who e-voted are still with certain political preferences and they are convinced that voting is something not to be missed even despite the poor weather. Additionally, the 2007 results have shown a significant amount of those who had not participated in elections if e-voting had not been present. Namely had we not had e-voting opportunity in 2007 elections the total turnout would have been 0,7% smaller resulting in approximately 4000 votes. If the future number of e-voters increases, the number of those who participate in e-voting because it is an comfortable way, the turnout could increase even more, predictably to 2,4% in 2009 (approximately 13 000 votes). Contrary to the general academic discussion, Estonian experience in 2007 has shown that e-voting has a moderate impact on actual voter turnout. It is important to note, however, that those who participate because of the new voting method are politically disengaged and therefore the engagement effect is purely mechanical – it is a mass effect attracting those who would not cast their vote normally. E-voters considered their e-voting experience positive and they would like to have an e-voting opportunity in future ballots. Even traditional voters are convinced that e-voting should be provided by the government in future ballots. The risks associated with the credibility of the e-voting system predicted by many technical experts were not significant. Since the experience was positive and the rate of credibility relatively high, the e-voter agrees to recommend e-voting to his friends and acts as reference partner to new e-voters. In fact, 2007 results confirm that the network of e-voters has increased significantly – approximately a half of the responded e-voters know up to five or more other e-voters. This situation allows the government to adopt methods of affiliate marketing in future electronic elections and this may support increasing number of e-voters. Very likely this effect will have an impact on the general growth of voting activity.http://www.ester.ee/record=b3756000*es

Socio-demographic Model of Gender Gap in Expected and Actual Wages in Estonia

Estonia ranks consistently on top of the list of countries with the largest gender pay gap. However, irrespective of abundant aggregate level evidence, little is known what motivates the gap at the individual level. In this paper we precisely address the issue of gender pay gap at the individual level. We examine how large is the gender pay gap in actual and expected wages and how it can be explained. We use a rich dataset from Estonian Labour Force Survey on actual wages, and the data from CV Keskus on people's wage expectations. Findings show that education and ethnicity are primary sources for gender based wage discrimination hinting at structural cleavages in Estonian society. Results have major policy implications for other multi-lingual countries with similar historical background

The Effect of Voting Advice Applications (VAAs) on Political Preferences - Evidence from a Randomized Field Experiment

Can online Voting Advice Applications (VAAs) that match voters to candidates and parties based on issue congruence influence voters’ political preferences? To address this question, we conducted a field experiment with University students during the 2011 Swiss federal elections and examine whether voters who used the Swiss VAA smartvote prior to the elections were more likely to adapt their initial party preferences. smartvote is an online web tool that enables voters to match their issue preferences to those of parties and candidates running for office, providing voters with custom made voting recommendations. Moreover, the tool allows voters to visualize their political position in the political landscape and compare their position to the political offer. The VAA gives unprecedented access to detailed political information and lets voters systematically compare electoral alternatives. Given these unique opportunities offered by the VAA, we analyze whether the revelation of “objective” preferences by the voting recommendation initiates changes in “subjective” preferences of voters. Decades of research on political behavior indicate that voters’ knowledge of and interest in politics is fairly limited and that political preferences are therefore highly amenable to (additional) information. Hence, we expect that voters who have their policy matches revealed by smartvote to be more likely to reconsider previously held convictions and consequently show changes in their political preference structure. We argue that VAAs can reinforce and rearrange pre-existing preferences. Employing the common political preference measure of an individual’s propensity to vote (ptv) for specific parties, we ascertain whether the smartvote voting recommendation caused voters to adapt their ptv scores for the running parties in the election. To empirically test these assumptions, we conducted a randomized field experiment during the 2011 Swiss federal elections among 2’000 University students in Switzerland. The treatment group received * Contact: [email protected] an email invitation to use smartvote before elections, providing survey participants with a personalized login for the website. The control group did not receive such an invitation. We measured the baseline characteristics and political preferences of both groups before and after the elections by means of an online survey. Given the randomized treatment assignment and the panel structure of the experiment, the data allows us to estimate the causal effect of smartvote use on political preferences. Due to non-compliance in the sample, we identify local average treatment effects for compliers. We find significant changes in the awarded scores for the top party preference among smartvote users. The assigned ptv score for the top party preferences increases significantly among those voters who used smartvote. Among those who changed their top party ptv score, most remained with the same party choice. Thus, in case of the most preferred party, smartvote use seems to reinforce pre-existing preferences. We do not only find a strengthening of the top party preference but also a multiplication thereof. Voters who consulted the tool report higher likelihoods for considering alternative choice options at elections. smartvote users, compared to non-users, are significantly more likely to change their initial preferences from a single most favored party to multiple highly preferred parties. In other words, being exposed to detailed information about vote alternatives seems to incline voters to consider these alternative options more closely and include the closest ones as part of their future choice set. These systematic shifts among smartvote users present empirical evidence for a causal effect of VAA use on political preferences

The Effect of Voting Advice Applications (VAAs) on Political Preferences - Evidence from a Randomized Field Experiment

Can online Voting Advice Applications (VAAs) that match voters to candidates and parties based on issue congruence influence voters’ political preferences? To address this question, we conducted a field experiment with University students during the 2011 Swiss federal elections and examine whether voters who used the Swiss VAA smartvote prior to the elections were more likely to adapt their initial party preferences. smartvote is an online web tool that enables voters to match their issue preferences to those of parties and candidates running for office, providing voters with custom made voting recommendations. Moreover, the tool allows voters to visualize their political position in the political landscape and compare their position to the political offer. The VAA gives unprecedented access to detailed political information and lets voters systematically compare electoral alternatives. Given these unique opportunities offered by the VAA, we analyze whether the revelation of “objective” preferences by the voting recommendation initiates changes in “subjective” preferences of voters. Decades of research on political behavior indicate that voters’ knowledge of and interest in politics is fairly limited and that political preferences are therefore highly amenable to (additional) information. Hence, we expect that voters who have their policy matches revealed by smartvote to be more likely to reconsider previously held convictions and consequently show changes in their political preference structure. We argue that VAAs can reinforce and rearrange pre-existing preferences. Employing the common political preference measure of an individual’s propensity to vote (ptv) for specific parties, we ascertain whether the smartvote voting recommendation caused voters to adapt their ptv scores for the running parties in the election. To empirically test these assumptions, we conducted a randomized field experiment during the 2011 Swiss federal elections among 2’000 University students in Switzerland. The treatment group received * Contact: [email protected] an email invitation to use smartvote before elections, providing survey participants with a personalized login for the website. The control group did not receive such an invitation. We measured the baseline characteristics and political preferences of both groups before and after the elections by means of an online survey. Given the randomized treatment assignment and the panel structure of the experiment, the data allows us to estimate the causal effect of smartvote use on political preferences. Due to non-compliance in the sample, we identify local average treatment effects for compliers. We find significant changes in the awarded scores for the top party preference among smartvote users. The assigned ptv score for the top party preferences increases significantly among those voters who used smartvote. Among those who changed their top party ptv score, most remained with the same party choice. Thus, in case of the most preferred party, smartvote use seems to reinforce pre-existing preferences. We do not only find a strengthening of the top party preference but also a multiplication thereof. Voters who consulted the tool report higher likelihoods for considering alternative choice options at elections. smartvote users, compared to non-users, are significantly more likely to change their initial preferences from a single most favored party to multiple highly preferred parties. In other words, being exposed to detailed information about vote alternatives seems to incline voters to consider these alternative options more closely and include the closest ones as part of their future choice set. These systematic shifts among smartvote users present empirical evidence for a causal effect of VAA use on political preferences

Internet voting: the role of personality traits and trust across three parliamentary elections in Estonia

Some countries offer options to vote in elections remotely via the internet. However, not all voters take up this opportunity. This study investigates the role of the Five-Factor Model personality traits in the choice to use internet voting, and the potential mediating effects of trust in internet voting, controlling for sociodemographic variables. Survey data collected after national elections in Estonia in 2011 (N = 482), 2015 (N = 535), and 2019 (N = 546) were analyzed. Agreeableness was positively correlated with trust in internet voting in all samples. Additionally, Agreeableness was related to internet voting via trust, but not in all samples. Internet voting was predicted by higher trust in internet voting, better PC literacy, and speaking Estonian at home, across all samples. These results indicate that easy access to, and trust in, internet voting may play a bigger role in the decision to use internet voting than personality traits

Impact of Personalized Information on Vote Intention: Evidence from a Randomized Field Experiment

Voting advice applications (VAAs) are voter information tools that millions of individuals have used in recent elections throughout the world. However, little is known about how they affect political behavior. Until now, observational studies of VAA have produced inconclusive results. Here we present the results from a randomized field experiment in Switzerland that estimates the causal effects of VAA use on voters’ vote intentions. Our results suggest that usage of the Swiss VAA smartvote strengthened the vote intention for the most preferred party and also increased the number of parties considered as potential vote options. These results imply that VAAs can influence voting behavior and that they can play an important role in electoral politics

Impact of Personalized Information on Vote Intention: Evidence from a Randomized Field Experiment

Voting advice applications (VAAs) are voter information tools that millions of individuals have used in recent elections throughout the world. However, little is known about how they affect political behavior. Until now, observational studies of VAA have produced inconclusive results. Here we present the results from a randomized field experiment in Switzerland that estimates the causal effects of VAA use on voters’ vote intentions. Our results suggest that usage of the Swiss VAA smartvote strengthened the vote intention for the most preferred party and also increased the number of parties considered as potential vote options. These results imply that VAAs can influence voting behavior and that they can play an important role in electoral politics

Voting Smarter? The Impact of Voting Advice Applications on Political Behavior

By matching the political offer with voters ’ preferences, these internet appli-cations assist voters in their decisions. However, despite the growing num-ber of VAA users in several European polities, little is still known about the profile of a typical VAA user, let alone about the impact of VAA usage on individual level attitudes and behavior. Dominant research in this field of-fers contradictory evidence for it suffers from poor data quality, relies on descriptive analysis and fails to tap causality. To remedy these problems this thesis systematically investigates the patterns of VAA usage and its impact on voting preferences, vote choice and electoral turnout. In so doing I em-ploy data from cross sectional election studies, panel surveys and a large N field experiment. First, I demonstrate that VAA usage is more frequent among the young, educated citizens from urban areas. However, addition-ally to these baseline properties, VAA users appear to be considerably more active in political life, they are interested in political issues and they are available to electoral competition. Second, using an experimental researc

When failing is the only option : explaining failure to finish PhDs in Estonia

That PhD candidates fail to graduate on time in large numbers across a number of countries is a well-known fact. An extreme example is Estonia, where according to some estimates less than a third of PhD students complete their studies on time. A number of studies have addressed the likely reasons for such behavior, both comparatively and country-specifically, but empirical evidence is controversial and scant. To remedy the situation, we use the population data of Estonian doctoral students in order to explain the abysmal success rate. Findings suggest that student's age and academic leave increase the probability to drop out. Contrary to the expectations, we find no evidence that drop out rates cluster around certain fields of studies. Furthermore, we argue that structural reasons supersede individual causes of failure and therefore instead of increasing the number of PhD positions to meet the demands of the labor market, the policy must incentivize doctoral candidates to stay fully engaged in their studies and subsequently graduate within nominal time limits. Our findings have profound implications regarding the higher education policy