Prospects and Challenges in Lithuanian Agricultural Markets After EU Accession

Medium-term prospects for key agricultural markets in Lithuania are analysed under alternative policies. Policy alternatives show the impacts of EU accession and also the impacts of implementing AP reforms in 2007. The model is a partial equilibrium, multi-commodity model where commodity prices are linked to key prices in major EU markets. The accession analysis shows significant impacts on production, prices, and even on relative prices. It indicates impacts on production and trade patterns. The most realistic scenario (SAPS to 2006 and SFP from 2007 to 2010) generates a growth in product value more than 10 percent higher than the non-accession scenario. The largest increase is in the value of milk production. There also is a decline in crops share and increase in milk share of the total market revenue, while cattle and dairy together increase from about 35 percent of output value in 2002 to over 45 percent in 2010.EU accession, CAP reform, policy, Industrial Organization, Q18,

State regulation of agricultural production in the republic of Lithuania

vokKirjasto Aj-

Prospects and Challenges in Lithuanian Agricultural Markets After EU Accession

Medium-term prospects for key agricultural markets in Lithuania are analysed under alternative policies. Policy alternatives show the impacts of EU accession and also the impacts of implementing AP reforms in 2007. The model is a partial equilibrium, multi-commodity model where commodity prices are linked to key prices in major EU markets. The accession analysis shows significant impacts on production, prices, and even on relative prices. It indicates impacts on production and trade patterns. The most realistic scenario (SAPS to 2006 and SFP from 2007 to 2010) generates a growth in product value more than 10 percent higher than the non-accession scenario. The largest increase is in the value of milk production. There also is a decline in crops share and increase in milk share of the total market revenue, while cattle and dairy together increase from about 35 percent of output value in 2002 to over 45 percent in 2010

KEY DETERMINANTS OF THE PRODUCTIVITY OF THE AGRICULTURAL SECTORS IN LITHUANIA AND GERMANY: WHAT ROLE DO RURAL DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMMES PLAY?

Abstract: The main objectives of the paper are to review the development of productivity indicators of the agricultural sectors in Lithuania and Germany and to discuss the role and potential contributions of the support measures in the Rural Development Programs. The paper will focus on sectorial productivity and profitability indicators included in the Common Monitoring and Evaluation Framework (CMEF) of rural development policy in the EU and carry out a comparative statistical analysis with policy support indicators over the period 2000 to 2011. The results of the analysis indicate that the impact of RDP funding on sectorial economic development is rather limited and other intervening factors play a much bigger role. Further case study analysis is required to examine the specific causal relationships between the main determinants of competitiveness and RDPs at regional level. This would create a better understanding of how specific regional factors can hinder or foster positive economic impacts of rural development measures on agricultural sectors in the EU

Mapping erosion- and phosphorus-vulnerable areas in the Baltic Sea Region - data availability, methods and biosecurity aspects

Soil erosion and nutrient leaching from terrestrial systems to rivers, lakes and marine environments cause deteriorating water quality and eutrophication. In all the countries of Northern Europe, agriculture is considered to be responsible for the greatest contribution of phosphorus (P) and high contribution of nitrogen (N) to coastal waters. Recently, there has been great pressure from both the environmental and agricultural sector to target the environmental measures at the areas with the highest risk for nutrient leaching and loading. Topographic, hydrologic, geomorphologic and agronomic factors often combine to make erosion and leaching from certain areas higher and more detrimental to the aquaculture than from others. Therefore, methods to identify and prioritise agri-environmental measures on these nutrient-vulnerable areas are desirable. This report examines data availability and methodology to identify the critical source areas in the Baltic Sea Region (BSR) countries. Here critical source areas are comprised mainly of erosion- and phosphorus-vulnerable areas that can often also be related to the biosecurity risk of animal husbandry. Ava ilability, determination methods and quality in basic background data required for the inventories vary widely in the Baltic Sea basin countries. Background data should include spatially detailed information from elevation, river networks, soil (soil type, P status etc.) and agricultural management (plant cover, fertiliser rates, livestock density etc.). Risk assessments are usually made at the municipal or catchment level, depending on which regional level the statistical data are available. The differences in the soil classification systems, soil P analysis and accuracy of the data needed for the mapping prevent uniform assessments and comparisons between the countries. The accuracy of the existing risk maps is difficult to verify with water quality observations, since the observations are scarce, especially from individual risk areas. Erosion risk maps are produced mostly with USLE based methods, which are also suitable for mapping areas at risk of P leaching. In USLE-maps, the risk areas are mainly located on steeply sloped fields. USLE describes the high risk areas by surface processes. Thus, the transport of solids and P through soil matrix and via the macropores is ignored in USLE examinations. If the calculation takes into account the distance to water and if the channel map is accurate, also fields further away from the water bodies can be classified as risk areas. Meanwhile, when topographic mapping is used as the index calculation methodology, flat areas will be classified as risk areas because this method puts weight on gentle slopes with fairly large catchment areas above them. The third option is based on physical GIS-based models, which can model simultaneously hydrology and nutrient transport. In general, these models require a lot of input data and in lack of them the possibility of erroneous results increases. The P-index is often considered to be a cost-effective tool to reduce P leaching. The major challenges are lack of data (mainly on soil P status), and uncertainties and the need for additional validation of the model. Areas with high animal density and high risk of surface runoff or erosion are potential high-risk areas as regards biosecurity. By combining relevant maps, such as animal density and erosion risk areas, potential high-risk biosecurity areas can be identified. It would be important to improve the availability of more accurate, larger-scale data for the use of researchers and designers. The central issues in presenting the risk areas are accuracy, objectivity and clarity. High-risk areas and fields should be shown as objectively as possible and after solving their locations, possible mitigation measures to reduce risks in the problematic areas could be discussed and agreed with the stakeholders.vokKV

Structural adjustment of national agriculture and food industries within the framework of integration in the EU

Ei saatavilla tiivistelmää eikä abstraktiavokMTT Taloustutkimus (MTTL

Impact analysis of the CAP reform on main agricultural commodities. Report I AGMEMOD – Summary report

This summary report is based on the outcome of a study carried out by the AGMEMOD Partnership under the management of the Agricultural Economics Research Institute (LEI, in the Netherlands), in cooperation with the Joint Research Centre – Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (JRC-IPTS) to generate projections for the main agricultural commodity markets for each year from 2005 until 2015. The report gives a general overview of the modelling approach, the description and implementation of the baseline, further CAP reform and exchange rate change scenarios. It outlines the main results for the aggregates EU-10, EU-15, EU-25 and EU-27, focusing in particular on the features implemented in this study, and addresses issues that need further attention. Detailed documentation on the AGMEMOD modelling approach, along with the outcome of the study, is published in five reports in the JRC-IPTS technical paper series under the heading "Impact analysis of Common Agricultural Policy reform on the main agricultural commodities"

Impact analysis of the CAP reform on main agricultural commodities. Report III AGMEMOD – Model Description

This report is based on the outcome of a study carried out by the AGMEMOD Partnership under the management of the Agricultural Economics Research Institute (LEI, the Netherlands), in cooperation with the Joint Research Centre – Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (JRC-IPTS) to generate yearly projections for the main agricultural commodity markets from 2005 until 2015. This report describes the modelling techniques used by the AGMEMOD Partnership, with emphasis on new commodities modelled and policy modelling approaches. Detailed documentation on the AGMEMOD modelling approach, along with the outcome of the study, is published in five reports in the JRC-IPTS Scientific and Technical Report Series under the heading "Impact analysis of Common Agricultural Policy reform on the main agricultural commodities