Climate Risk and the Fossil Fuel Industry: Two Feet High and Rising

As climate change effects grow more pronounced, there can be little doubt that an industry that produces 68 percent of human greenhouse gas emissions will find itself under increasing pressure. The risks to the industry correlate with progress on climate goals. Unless a technological breakthrough can restrict carbon releases, the fortunes of the fossil fuel industry and the stability of Earth's climate will be locked in a zero-sum game. Climate's gain is the industry's loss and vice versa. For coal, the threats posed by climate action are already being felt. Coal's fortunes now rest with developing countries, where decisions to seek China-style, coal-led development will increasingly be met by international pressure to choose an alternate path

An evaluation of real GDP forecasts: 1996-2001

During the second half of the 1990s, forecasters made large and persistent underpredictions of GDP growth; subsequently, they missed the drop off into the recession of 2001. Forecasters do not appear to have behaved unusually during this period: Their out-period forecasts were not far from their perceptions of longer-run trends. This suggests that the forecast errors in 1996-2001 likely reflected some unusual behavior in the economy.Gross domestic product

Numerical study of the effects of boundary conditions on the measurement and calibration of gardon type heat flux sensors

To monitor the high-intensity heat flux conditions that occur in the space shuttle main engine (SSME), it is necessary to use specifically designed heat flux sensors. These sensors, which are of the Gardon-type, are exposed on the measuring face to high-intensity radiative and convective heat fluxes and on the other face to convective cooling. To improve the calibration and measurement accuracy of these gauges, researchers are studing the effect that the thermal boundary conditions have on gauge performance. In particular, they are studying how convective cooling effects the field inside the sensor and the measured heat flux. The first phase of this study involves a numerical study of these effects. Subsequent phases will involve experimental verification. A computer model of the heat transfer around a Garden-type heat flux sensor was developed. Two specific geometries are being considered are: (1) heat flux sensor mounted on a flat-plate; and (2) heat flux sensor mounted at the stagnation point of a circular cylinder. Both of these configurations are representative of the use of heat flux sensors in the components of the SSME. The purpose of the analysis is to obtain a temperature distribution as a function of the boundary conditions

A method of characteristics solution for the equations governing the unsteady flow of liquids in closed systems

Method of characteristics solution for equations governing unsteady flow of liquids in closed system

An expensive diversion

In the midst of a shortage of natural gas, Abu Dhabi has launched an investment into renewable energy. Why? Will renewables allow the Persian Gulf sheikhdom to meet rising electricity demand without simultaneous increases in conventional power? No. Even in one of the worldﾒs sunniest places ﾖ but not one of its windiest ﾖ conventional solar generation is unable to handle a demand peak that extends past sundown. Renewables offer an intermittent electricity supply at a much higher average cost than the existing gasfired system. Abu Dhabi will be neither able to forgo construction of a single conventional generating plant, nor reduce its reliance on gas imports from Qatar. The contribution to energy security will be negligible. This paper finds two main benefits, among several limitations. First, renewables may allow reduced fuel consumption in conventional power plants, which will cut carbon emissions and burning of expensive backup fuels. Second, the highly publicized investment has improved the regimeﾒs international image, bringing acclaim as a leader in clean energy, despite its status as a key OPEC oil producer. In the political context of a rentier monarchy, such prestige is as an important source of domestic legitimacy

The State of American Federalism, 2002–2003: Division Replaces Unity

The national unity formed last year in response to terrorism soon vanished as more typical political infighting returned. Although overshadowed by the buildup to and the conduct of a second war against Iraq, political issues grounded in the nation\u27s federal character contributed to a rise in divisiveness. The mid-term elections of 2002 and redistricting battles in several states drove partisanship to new heights. The continued sluggishness of the nation\u27s economy also exacerbated interparty bickering. Republicans controlled the White House and both houses of Congress, yet some of the president\u27s policy initiatives encountered more serious resistance in his own party than from the opposition. Many of the feuds within the majority party rested on state and regional interests typical of federalism politics. State and local governments remained trapped in the third year of a fiscal crisis, and even large reductions in expenditures did not extricate these governments from the financial fix. Despite their pleas, state and local officials were unable to obtain any significant relief from the federal government. Federal-state relations, as a consequence, exhibited more contentiousness than cooperation

American Federalism, State Governments, and Public Policy: Weaving Together Loose Theoretical Threads

Decisions about the provision and delivery of public goods and services take place within the framework established by America\u27s most distinctive political invention-federalism. Author after author reminds students and scholars alike that policy making can be understood only from an intergovernmental perspective. But to use a term such as \u27\u27intergovernmental policy making\u27\u27 thrusts one into two distinctive analytic worlds which, at best, are loosely woven together