Scenarios as the basis for assessment of mitigation and adaptation

The possibilities and need for adaptation and mitigation depends on uncertain future developments with respect to socio-economic factors and the climate system. Scenarios are used to explore the impacts of different strategies under uncertainty. In this chapter, some scenarios are presented that are used in the ADAM project for this purpose. One scenario explores developments with no mitigation, and thus with high temperature increase and high reliance on adaptation (leading to 4oC increase by 2100 compared to pre-industrial levels). A second scenario explores an ambitious mitigation strategy (leading to 2oC increase by 2100 compared to pre-industrial levels). In the latter scenario, stringent mitigation strategies effectively reduces the risks of climate change, but based on uncertainties in the climate system a temperature increase of 3oC or more cannot be excluded. The analysis shows that, in many cases, adaptation and mitigation are not trade-offs but supplements. For example, the number of people exposed to increased water resource stress due to climate change can be substantially reduced in the mitigation scenario, but even then adaptation will be required for the remaining large numbers of people exposed to increased stress. Another example is sea level rise, for which adaptation is more cost-effective than mitigation, but mitigation can help reduce damages and the cost of adaptation. For agriculture, finally, only the scenario based on a combination of adaptation and mitigation is able to avoid serious climate change impacts

Endogenous Technological Change in Energy Systems Models: Synthesis of Experience with ERIS, MARKAL, and MESSAGE

Technological change is widely recognised as a key factor in economic progress, as it enhances the productivity of factor inputs. In recent years also the notion has developed that targeted technological development is a main means to reconcile economic ambitions with ecological considerations. This raises the issue that assessments of future trajectories of for example en-ergy systems should take into account context-specific technological progress. Rather than tak-ing characteristics of existing and emerging technologies as a given, their development should be a function of dedicated Research, Development and Demonstration (RD&D) and market de-ployment under varying external conditions. Endogenous technological learning has recently shown to be a very promising new feature in energy system models. A learning, or experience curve, describes the specific (investment) cost as a function of the cumulative capacity for a given technology. It reflects the fact that tech-nologies may experience declining costs as a result of its increasing adoption into the society due to the accumulation of knowledge through, among others, processes of learning-by-doing and learning-by-using. This report synthesises the results and findings from experiments with endogenous technologi-cal learning, as reported separately within the EU TEEM project. These experiments have been carried out by three TEEM partners using three models: ERIS (PSI), MARKAL (ECN and PSI), and MESSAGE (IIASA). The main objectives of this synthesis are: to derive common methodo-logical insights; to indicate and assess benefits of the new feature, but also its limitations and issues to solve; and to recommend further research to solve the main issues. This synthesis shows that all model applications are examples of successful first experiments to incorporate the learning-by-doing concept in energy system models. Incorporating the learning-by-doing concept makes an important difference. The experiments demonstrate and quantify the benefits of investing early in emerging technologies that are not competitive at the moment of their deployment. They also show that the long-term impact of policy instruments, such as CO2 taxes or emission limits and RD&D instruments, on technological development can be assessed adequately with models including technology learning. Adopting the concept of endogenous learning, several types of RD&D interventions can be addressed that aim at accelerating the market penetration of new technologies. The directions into which such interventions might lead have been illustrated in some of the experiments. However, quantitative relationships between R&D policy and learning data parameters are still unknow

Formality and informality in the summative assessment of motor vehicle apprentices: a case study

This article explores the interaction of formal and informal attributes of competence‐based assessment. Specifically, it presents evidence from a small qualitative case study of summative assessment practices for competence‐based qualifications within apprenticeships in the motor industry in England. The data are analysed through applying an adaptation of a framework for exploring the interplay of formality and informality in learning. This analysis reveals informal mentoring as a significant element which influences not only the process of assessment, but also its outcomes. We offer different possible interpretations of the data and their analysis, and conclude that, whichever interpretation is adopted, there appears to be a need for greater capacity‐building for assessors at a local level. This could acknowledge a more holistic role for assessors; recognise the importance of assessors’ informal practices in the formal retention and achievement of apprentices; and enhance awareness of inequalities that may be reinforced by both informal and formal attributes of assessment practices

Midterm Self Evaluation Report November 2004 - June 2007 : Dutch National Research Programme Climate changes Spatial Planning (CcSP)

This self evaluation report is a product of the Climatic Change Spatial Planning consortium. It describes the progress on a programme level and within each theme of the CcSP-programme over the period November 2004 until May 200

Let\u27s Talk About How We Talk: Communication Agreements in the Library Workplace

Purpose: This chapter introduces a new tool, termed the Communication Agreement, for enhancing communication in the library workplace. The chapter defines the communication agreement, provides discussion questions for forming a communication agreement, provides examples of how communication agreements are beneficial to a diverse library workforce, and provides strategies to informally assess communication agreements’ effectiveness. Practical implications: Communication problems in diverse library workplaces can lead to, or exacerbate, conflict between employees. Generational, cross-cultural, gender, and other differences can lead to misunderstandings and conflict between employees. The communication agreement provides library managers with a tool to bridge differences in communication styles between employees, enable employees to engage in more effective communication, assist employees in developing better understandings and respect for colleagues of different backgrounds, and raise employees’ emotional intelligences. Originality/Value: Numerous resources and publications provide generalized approaches to communicating with others in a heterogeneous workplace or team, but the communication agreement provides a new approach for developing effective communication between people in a diverse library workplace. Limitations: The chapter lays out informal assessment strategies for the communication agreement, but formal assessment methods and metrics still need to be developed