WATERFOWL POPULATION STATUS, 1999

This report summarizes the most recent information on the status of North American duck populations to facilitate development of harvest regulations in the U.S. The results in this report differ from those published in the earlier •Trends in Duck Breeding Populations, 1955-99. Because of recent changes, tables from the Trend Report, not normally included in the Status Report, will be included this year. The 1999 estimate for total ducks in the traditional survey area was 43.4 million birds, the largest population size estimated since operational surveys began in 1955. This is an increase (P\u3c0.01) of 11% over that of 1998, and 32% higher (P\u3c0.01) than the 1955-98 average. Mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) abundance was 10.8 million, the second largest population size estimated. This is an increase of 12% (P=0.01) over last year and 47% (P\u3c0.01) greater than the long-term average. Blue-winged teal (Anas discors) abundance was 7.1 million, an all-time high, and 65% greater than the long-term average (P\u3c0.01). Northern pintail (Anas acuta), scaup (Aythya marila and Aythya affinis), green-winged teal (Anas crecca), and northern shoveler (Anas clypeata) numbers increased from 1998 estimates, while gadwall (Anas strepera) decreased (P\u3c0.04). Gadwall, green-winged teal, northern shoveler, redheads (Aythya americana), and canvasbacks (Aythya valisineria) were above their respective long-term averages (P\u3c0.05), while pintails and scaup remained below their long-term averages (P\u3c0.01). American wigeon (Anas americana) numbers were unchanged from last year or from long-term average. May habitat conditions in the traditional survey area were generally good to excellent, except for a few dry areas primarily in southern and central Alberta, Montana, and central Saskatchewan. The number of May ponds in the traditional survey area was 6.7 million, an increase of 46% over 1998 and 37% above the long-term average (P\u3c0.01). In the eastern areas of Canada and the U.S. (strata 51-56 and 62), the total number of ducks (1.2 million) remained unchanged from last year and the 1995-98 average (P\u3c0.10). Numbers of individual species in the east were similar to those of last year (P • 0.10), except for goldeneye (Bucephala clangula and B. islandica), which were 196% greater than 1998 levels, and scaup, which were 93% below 1998 levels. Goldeneye were above their 1995-98 average, while blue-winged teal and scaup were below (P\u3c0.03). Habitats in the east were somewhat drier than last year, and conditions were overall not as favorable for waterfowl production. The estimate of the total-duck fall-flight index is105 million birds, compared to 84 million last year. The fall flight is predicted to include 13.6 million mallards, 16% greater (P\u3c0.01) than the estimate of 11.8 million in 1998

Waterfowl Population Status, 2002

In the traditional survey area (strata 1-18, 20-50, and 75-77), total duck abundance was 31.2 + 0.5 [SE] million birds. This was 14% below (P\u3c 0.001) last year’s estimate of 36.1 ± 0.6 million birds, and 6% below the long-term (1955-2001) average (P\u3c0.001). Mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) abundance was 7.5 ± 0.2 million, similar to (P=0.23) the 2001 estimate of 7.9 ± 0.2 million, and essentially identical to the long-term average (P=1.00). Blue-winged teal (A. discors) abundance was 4.2 ± 0.2 million, which was 27% below last year’s estimate of 5.8 ± 0.3 million (P\u3c0.001), but similar to the long-term average (P=0.22). Gadwall (A. strepera; 2.2 ± 0.1 million, -17%), shovelers (A. clypeata; 2.3 ± 0.1 million, -30%), and pintails (A. acuta; 1.8 ± 0.1 million, -46%) were below 2001 estimates (P\u3c0.02). Wigeon (A. americana; 2.3 ± 0.1 million), green-winged teal (A. crecca; 2.3 ± 0.1 million), redheads (Aythya americana; 0.6 ± 0.1 million), canvasbacks (Aythya valisineria; 0.5 ± 0.1 million), and scaup (Aythya marila and A. affinis combined; 3.5 ± 0.2 million) were unchanged from 2001 estimates. Gadwall (+37%), green-winged teal (+28%), and shovelers (+10%) all remained above their long-term averages, whereas wigeon (-12%), pintail (-58%), canvasback (-14%), and scaup numbers (-34%) were below long-term averages. Northern pintails and scaup were the lowest and second lowest counts on record, respectively. The redhead estimate was similar to the long-term average. Below-average winter and spring precipitation in the prairies and parklands were reflected in pond counts much lower than in 2001. Total May ponds (U.S. prairies and prairie and parkland Canada combined) of 2.7 ± 0.1 million were the second lowest since 1974, when this estimate was first recorded, 41% below last year’s estimate of 4.6 ± 0.1 million (P\u3c0.001), and 45% below (P\u3c0.001) the long-term average. The projected mid-continent mallard fall flight index is 8.9 million, statistically similar to last year\u27s. The eastern survey area is comprised of strata 51-56 and 62-69. The 2002 total duck population estimate for this area was 4.4 ± 0.3 million birds, 32% higher than last year\u27s (3.3 ± 0.3 million, P=0.01), and 41% higher than the 1996-2001 average (P\u3c0.001). Numbers of most individual species were similar to those of last year, with the exception of mergansers (Lophodytes cucullatus and Mergus spp.; 0.8 ± 0.1 million, +90%, P\u3c0.001) and green-winged teal (0.7 ± 0.1 million, +174%, P=0.01), which increased compared to last year. Mergansers (+68%) and green-winged teal (+102%) were also above their 1996-2001 averages, as were scoters (Melanitta spp.; 0.3 ± 0.1 million, +178%, P=0.01). Estimates for all other species were similar to last year\u27s estimates and to long-term averages

Waterfowl Population Status, 2002

In the traditional survey area (strata 1-18, 20-50, and 75-77), total duck abundance was 31.2 + 0.5 [SE] million birds. This was 14% below (P\u3c 0.001) last year’s estimate of 36.1 ± 0.6 million birds, and 6% below the long-term (1955-2001) average (P\u3c0.001). Mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) abundance was 7.5 ± 0.2 million, similar to (P=0.23) the 2001 estimate of 7.9 ± 0.2 million, and essentially identical to the long-term average (P=1.00). Blue-winged teal (A. discors) abundance was 4.2 ± 0.2 million, which was 27% below last year’s estimate of 5.8 ± 0.3 million (P\u3c0.001), but similar to the long-term average (P=0.22). Gadwall (A. strepera; 2.2 ± 0.1 million, -17%), shovelers (A. clypeata; 2.3 ± 0.1 million, -30%), and pintails (A. acuta; 1.8 ± 0.1 million, -46%) were below 2001 estimates (P\u3c0.02). Wigeon (A. americana; 2.3 ± 0.1 million), green-winged teal (A. crecca; 2.3 ± 0.1 million), redheads (Aythya americana; 0.6 ± 0.1 million), canvasbacks (Aythya valisineria; 0.5 ± 0.1 million), and scaup (Aythya marila and A. affinis combined; 3.5 ± 0.2 million) were unchanged from 2001 estimates. Gadwall (+37%), green-winged teal (+28%), and shovelers (+10%) all remained above their long-term averages, whereas wigeon (-12%), pintail (-58%), canvasback (-14%), and scaup numbers (-34%) were below long-term averages. Northern pintails and scaup were the lowest and second lowest counts on record, respectively. The redhead estimate was similar to the long-term average. Below-average winter and spring precipitation in the prairies and parklands were reflected in pond counts much lower than in 2001. Total May ponds (U.S. prairies and prairie and parkland Canada combined) of 2.7 ± 0.1 million were the second lowest since 1974, when this estimate was first recorded, 41% below last year’s estimate of 4.6 ± 0.1 million (P\u3c0.001), and 45% below (P\u3c0.001) the long-term average. The projected mid-continent mallard fall flight index is 8.9 million, statistically similar to last year\u27s. The eastern survey area is comprised of strata 51-56 and 62-69. The 2002 total duck population estimate for this area was 4.4 ± 0.3 million birds, 32% higher than last year\u27s (3.3 ± 0.3 million, P=0.01), and 41% higher than the 1996-2001 average (P\u3c0.001). Numbers of most individual species were similar to those of last year, with the exception of mergansers (Lophodytes cucullatus and Mergus spp.; 0.8 ± 0.1 million, +90%, P\u3c0.001) and green-winged teal (0.7 ± 0.1 million, +174%, P=0.01), which increased compared to last year. Mergansers (+68%) and green-winged teal (+102%) were also above their 1996-2001 averages, as were scoters (Melanitta spp.; 0.3 ± 0.1 million, +178%, P=0.01). Estimates for all other species were similar to last year\u27s estimates and to long-term averages

Waterfowl: Population Status, 2005

In North America the process of establishing hunting regulations for waterfowl is conducted annually. In the United States the process involves a number of scheduled meetings in which information regarding the status of waterfowl is presented to individuals within the agencies responsible for setting hunting regulations. In addition the proposed regulations are published in the Federal Register to allow public comment. This report includes the most current breeding population and production information available for waterfowl in North America and is a result of cooperative efforts by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS), the Canadian Wildlife Service (CWS), various state and provincial conservation agencies, and private conservation organizations. This report is intended to aid the development of waterfowl harvest regulations in the United States for the 2005-2006 hunting season

Waterfowl: Population Status, 2005

In North America the process of establishing hunting regulations for waterfowl is conducted annually. In the United States the process involves a number of scheduled meetings in which information regarding the status of waterfowl is presented to individuals within the agencies responsible for setting hunting regulations. In addition the proposed regulations are published in the Federal Register to allow public comment. This report includes the most current breeding population and production information available for waterfowl in North America and is a result of cooperative efforts by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS), the Canadian Wildlife Service (CWS), various state and provincial conservation agencies, and private conservation organizations. This report is intended to aid the development of waterfowl harvest regulations in the United States for the 2005-2006 hunting season

TRENDS IN DUCK BREEDING POPULATIONS, 1955-2002

This report summarizes information about the status of duck populations and their habitats during spring 2002, and focuses on areas encompassed by the Breeding Waterfowl and Habitat Survey. These estimates do not include information from State or Provincial agency surveys. The traditional survey area includes strata 1-18, 20-50, and 75-77. In the traditional survey area, the total duck population estimate (excluding scoters [Melanitta spp.], eiders [Somateria and Polysticta spp.], long-tailed ducks [Clangula hyemalis], mergansers [Mergus and Lophodytes spp.], and wood ducks [Aix sponsa]) was 31.2 ± 0.5 [SE] million birds, 14% below (P \u3c 0.001) last year’s estimate of 36.1 ± 0.6 million birds, and 6% below (P \u3c 0.001) the 1955-2001 long-term average. Mallard abundance was 7.5 ± 0.2 million birds, which was similar to last year’s estimate of 7.9 ± 0.2 million (P = 0.23) and essentially identical to the 1955-2001 average (P = 1.00). Blue-winged teal abundance was estimated to be 4.2 ± 0.2 million birds. This value was 27% below (P \u3c 0.001) last year’s estimate of 5.8 ± 0.3 million, but unchanged (P = 0.22) from the 1955-2001 average. Gadwall (2.2 ± 0.1 million, -17%), shovelers (2.3 ± 0.1 million, -30%), and pintails (1.8 ± 0.1 million, -46%) were below 2001 estimates (P ≤ 0.02). Wigeon (2.3 ± 0.1 million), green-winged teal (2.3 ± 0.1 million), redheads (0.6 ± 0.1 million), canvasbacks (0.5 ± 0.1 million), and scaup (3.5 ± 0.2 million) were unchanged from 2001 estimates. Gadwall (+37%), green-winged teal (+28%), and shovelers (+10%) all remained above their long-term averages, whereas wigeon (-12%), pintails (-58%), canvasbacks (-14%), and scaup numbers (-34%) were below long-term averages. The counts for pintails and scaup were the lowest and second lowest on record, respectively. The number of redheads was similar to the long-term average (P = 0.38)

Trends in Duck Breeding Populations, 1955-2004

This report summarizes information about the status of duck populations and wetland habitats during spring 2004, focusing on areas encompassed by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife and Canadian Wildlife Services’ Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey. The estimates do not include information from surveys conducted by State or Provincial agencies. In the traditional survey area, which includes strata 1-18, 20-50, and 75-77 (Fig. 2), the total duck population estimate (excluding scoters [Melanitta spp.], eiders [Somateria and Polysticta spp.], long-tailed ducks [Clangula hyemalis], mergansers [Mergus and Lophodytes spp.], and wood ducks [Aix sponsa]) was 32.2 ± 0.6 [SE] million birds, 11% below (P \u3c 0.001) last year’s estimate of 36.2 ± 0.7 million birds and 3% below the 1955-2003 long-term average (P = 0.053). Mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) abundance was 7.4 ± 0.3 million birds, which was similar to last year’s estimate of 7.9 ± 0.3 million birds (P = 0.177) and the long-term average (P = 0.762). Blue-winged teal (A. discors) abundance was 4.1 ± 0.2 million birds. This value was 26% below last year’s estimate of 5.5 ± 0.3 million birds (P \u3c 0.001) and 10% below the long-term average (P = 0.073). Of the other duck species, only estimates of northern shovelers (A. clypeata; 2.8 ± 0.2 million) and American wigeon (A. americana; 2.0 ± 0.1 million) were significantly different from 2003 estimates (P \u3c 0.003), and both were 22% below 2003 estimates. Compared to the long-term averages, gadwall (A. strepera; 2.6 ± 0.2 million; +56%), green-winged teal (A. crecca; 2.5 ± 0.1 million; +33%) and shovelers (+32%) were above their 1955-2003 averages (P \u3c 0.001), as they were in 2003. In 2004, northern pintails (A. acuta; 2.2 ± 0.2 million; -48%) and scaup (Aythya affinis and A. marila combined; 3.8 ± 0.2 million; -27%) remained well below their long-term averages (P \u3c 0.001). Wigeon also were below their long-term average in 2004 (-25%; P \u3c 0.001). Estimates of redheads (A. americana) and canvasbacks (A. valisineria) were unchanged from their previous year and long-term averages (P ≥ 0.396)

Movement, Survival Rate Estimation, and Population Modelling of Eastern Tundra Swans, Cygnus columbianus columbianus

The Eastern Population (EP) of tundra swans (Cygnus columbianus columbianus) winters in the eastern United States and breeds from the North Slope of Alaska to the eastern side of Hudson Bay in Canada. EP swans were marked on the wintering grounds in Maryland, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Virginia in order to study movements, habitat use, survival, and population structure. Swans were marked with individually coded neck collars (n=1,471), USFWS leg-bands (n=3,504), and satellite-tracked radio transmitters (n=43) from February 1997?March 2002. Location information was collected from February 1997?March 2003 via ground observers, recapture, recovery of dead birds, or satellite location. Satellite-tracked EP tundra swans spent approximately 7 months each year on breeding or wintering grounds, and about 5 months of each year in migration. Significant time spent in migration highlights the importance of migratory habitats to this population. No sub-populations were identifiable based on the exclusive use of migratory pathways, Bird Conservation Regions, wintering grounds, or breeding grounds. Movement rates between states on the wintering grounds (Maryland, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Virginia) ranged from 0.00 to 0.46, but were rarely different from 0.25 (P<0.05), which suggested that exchange between states caused significant mixing of the population within and between years. Indirect survival rates of marked adult swans ranged 66?84% depending on analytical method or marker type, but were statistically similar (95% confidence intervals overlapped). Use of neck collars in operational marking program is not recommended for future studies due to the cost and difficulty of collecting representative data. To investigate the necessity of annual survival rate estimates, I used data from operational monitoring programs (Mid-Winter Index [MWI], winter ground Production Survey, number of hunting permits, retrieved swan harvest) to develop a model of EP tundra swan dynamics. The model provided reasonable and precise predictions of population size, harvest, and survival. The model can help to predict and understand the effects of harvest on population size. Analyses did not detect density-dependence in recruitment and suggested that a population size goal of at least 80,000 swans can be sustained at current or slightly decreased levels of harvest.U.S. Geological Survey, Cornell University, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, North Carolina Wildlife Resources Commission, Pennsylvania Game Commission, Maryland Department of Natural Resources Wildlife Heritage Service, Virginia Department of Game and Inland Fisherie