How to best address aviation’s full climate impact from an economic policy point of view? – Main results from AviClim research project

AbstractThe interdisciplinary research project AviClim (Including Aviation in International Protocols for Climate Protection) has explored the feasibility for including aviation’s full climate impact, i.e., both long-lived CO2 and short-lived non-CO2 effects, in international protocols for climate protection and has investigated the economic impacts. Short-lived non-CO2 effects of aviation are NOx emissions, H2O emissions or contrail cirrus, for instance.Four geopolitical scenarios have been designed which differ concerning the level of international support for climate protecting measures. These scenarios have been combined alternatively with an emissions trading scheme on CO2 and non-CO2 species, a climate tax and a NOx emission charge combined with CO2 trading and operational measures (such as lower flight altitudes). Modelling results indicate that a global emissions trading scheme for both CO2 and non-CO2 emissions would be the best solution from an economic and environmental point of view. Costs and impacts on competition could be kept at a relatively moderate level and effects on employment are moderate, too. At the same time, environmental benefits are noticeable

Factors determining airlines' costs for climate protecting market-based measures

This paper investigates the factors influencing airline’s costs for climate protecting market-based measures. It is based on selected results of the interdisciplinary research project AviClim (Including Aviation in International Protocols for Climate Protection). AviClim has investigated how to limit aviation’s full climate impact best from an environmental and economic point of view. In this research project, both long-lived CO2 and short-lived non-CO2 effects of aviation have been addressed simultaneously and climate protecting scenarios for aviation in the timeframe 2010-2030 have been developed. On this basis, the factors determining aviation’s costs for climate protecting measures have been analysed. Results indicate that the choice of the market-based measure, it’s regional scope, the metric chosen for the translation of the non-CO2 impacts into equivalent CO2 and the prices for equivalent CO2 are important factors for airline’s costs. An analysis for single flights reveals remarkable differences in specific emissions (tons CO2 equivalent/flight kilometre). An investigation for groups of airlines differentiated by business model and country of origin indicates that the world regions served by the airlines, the business model, the length and the emission characteristics of the flights are further important factors for the costs of the regulating measure

Fully integrated mobility scenarios within sustainable futures for Germany

Transport has been analysed as a sector and service fully embedded in the overall economy in Germany using a validated economy-environment model (Panta Rhei). Two contrasting scenarios for potential future macro-economic policies in Germany until the year 2020 have been analysed. Both scenarios result in economic and transport volume growth. Transport volumes are strongly driven by increasing international trade and diver-sification of labour. Moderating this trend appears as a key factor to influence transport volume growth. A decoupling of carbon dioxide emissions from economic growth appears only feasible with significant efficiency gains. Current markets have no sufficient incenives to realise these gains. Current markets have no sufficient incentives to realise these gains by themselves. If price signal shall be set, a long-term doubling of fuel prices and road charges seems necessary in order to cut the fleet fuel economy by two and to in-duce higher transport productivity. Furthermore, if economic growth by transport growth as well as reductions in carbon dioxide emissions shall be achieved, then the emissions from car travel, with two thirds the biggest emitter, must - and can - reduce strongly in order to compensate for the desired growth in freight transport. Maximal half of the transport emissions can be attributed to mobility demands of the end user. In particular the diverse and growing "leisure and tourism" activities are very (car) transport intensive. The other half must be allocated as a transport service, among which goods transport for building and food production. Hence policies affecting (private) transport or leisure activities have stronger links, while (freight) transport is linked with a variety of other fields. Emissions from vehicle production, including all product chains, add another 50 % to the carbon dioxide balance from vehicle operation for Germany, services add another 30 %, which has rarely been established quantitatively. These sectors represent important and increasing areas for reduction measures. Total employment and gross-value added in the transport sector hinge to about half on vehicle production and services. However production shifts fo foreign countries while services increas domestically. But despite their growth most employment and value in vehicle production will be generated outside Germany

Ökonomische Effekte des Verkehrs

Vorgehensweise und Ergebnisse der Schätzung der ökonomischen Effekte des Verkehrssystem

Die ökonomische Bedeutung des Verkehrssystems in Deutschland-Analyse und Prognose mit Hilfe der Input-Output-Analyse

Methoden und Ergebniise der Schätzung der ökonomischen Effekte des Verkehrssystem

Berücksichtigung katalytischer Effekte in ÖKONVER - ÖKONVER Meilenstein 8 (30.4) zu AP3400

Der vorliegende ÖKONVER-Meilensteinbericht leistet einen Beitrag dahingehend, das im DLR eingesetzte Instrumentarium der Input-Output-Methodik exemplarisch für den Luftverkehr hinsichtlich seiner Anwendbarkeit im Rahmen von Fragestellungen zu regionalwirtschaftlichen Wirkungen von Verkehrsangeboten und Verkehrsinfrastrukturen beurteilen zu können. Es zeigte sich, dass mögliche positive Effekte des Luftverkehrs über die durch die Input-OutputAnalyse erfassten direkten, indirekten und induzierten Nachfrageeffekte hinausgehen. Beispiele für solche oft als „katalytisch“ bezeichneten Effekte sind Reisekosten und -zeitersparnisse für Nutzer, Wirkungen des Luftverkehrs als Standortfaktor, Absatzmarkterweiterungen und Effekte auf eingehenden wie ausgehenden Tourismus und Handel. In der Literatur werden solche Effekte aufgrund etlicher Schwierigkeiten bei ihrer Ermittlung bislang nur unsystematisch und, beispielsweise in Auftragsstudien durch Luftverkehrsanbieter, meist interessensgetrieben untersucht. Ein Ausbau der Kompetenzen des DLR zur möglichst neutralen Erfassung katalytischer Effekte des (Luft)verkehrssystems würde daher die Methodenkompetenz und den Grad der Systemerfassung des DLR erhöhen