Regional variation in perceptions about climate change.

A 2007 survey covering rural areas in nine US states provides data on perceived local impacts of climate change. Perceptions vary from region to region, with a pattern suggesting links to real climate specifically to winter warming in snow country. A multivariate analysis using mixed-effects ordered logit regression confirms a significant perception-temperature relationship, net of individual background and ideological characteristics, and of regional variations. These findings invite more detailed research

Ski areas, weather and climate: Time series models for New England case studies

Wintertime warming trends experienced in recent decades, and predicted to increase in the future, present serious challenges for ski areas and whole regions that depend on winter tourism. Most research on this topic examines past or future climate-change impacts at yearly to decadal resolution, to obtain a perspective on climate-change impacts. We focus instead on local-scale impacts of climate variability, using detailed daily data from two individual ski areas. Our analysis fits ARMAX (autoregressive moving average with exogenous variables) time series models that predict day-to-day variations in skier attendance from a combination of mountain and urban weather, snow cover and cyclical factors. They explain half to two-thirds of the variation in these highly erratic series, with no residual autocorrelation. Substantively, model results confirm the backyard hypothesis that urban snow conditions significantly affect skier activity; quantify these effects alongside those of mountain snow and weather; show that previous-day conditions provide a practical time window; find no monthly effects net of weather; and underline the importance of a handful of high-attendance days in making or breaking the season. Viewed in the larger context of climate change, our findings suggest caution regarding the efficacy of artificial snowmaking as an adaptive strategy, and of smoothed yearly summaries to characterize the timing-sensitive impacts of weather (and hence, high-variance climate change) on skier activity. These results elaborate conclusions from our previous annual-level analysis. More broadly, they illustrate the potential for using ARMAX models to conduct integrated, dynamic analysis across environmental and social domains

U.S. East Coast Trough Indices at 500 hPa and New England Winter Climate Variability

Using monthly gridded 500-hPa data, two synoptic indices are defined to better understand the principle mechanisms controlling intraseasonal to multiannual winter climate variability in NewEngland (NE). The “trough axis index” (TAI) is created to quantify the mean longitudinal position of the common East Coast pressure trough, and the “trough intensity index” (TII) is calculated to estimate the relative amplitude of this trough at 42.5°N. The TAI and TII are then compared with records for NE regional winter precipitation, temperature, and snowfall with the goal of understanding physical mechanisms linking NE winter climate with regional sea surface temperatures (SST), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Pacific–North American (PNA) teleconnection pattern. The TAI correlates most significantly with winter precipitation at inland sites, such that a western (eastern)trough axis position is associated with greater (lower) average monthly precipitation. Also, significant correlations between the TAI and both NE regional SSTs and the NAO suggest that longitudinal shifting of the trough is one possible mechanism linking the North Atlantic with NE regional winterclimate variability. The NE winter temperature is significantly correlated with the TII, regional SSTs, and the NAO. While the PNA also correlates with the TII, NE winter climate variables are apparently unrelated to the PNA index

Is New Hampshire\u27s climate warming?

This Carsey brief looks at temperature anomalies across New Hampshire and shows that not only is the state warmer than it has been in the past, but it is also warming faster than much of the planet. Sociologist Lawrence Hamilton, research associate professor Cameron Wake, and former NH state climatologist Barry Keim analyzed over 100 years of temperatures across the state to produce this data for the Carsey Institute in August 2010

Multiple transient memories in sheared suspensions: robustness, structure, and routes to plasticity

Multiple transient memories, originally discovered in charge-density-wave conductors, are a remarkable and initially counterintuitive example of how a system can store information about its driving. In this class of memories, a system can learn multiple driving inputs, nearly all of which are eventually forgotten despite their continual input. If sufficient noise is present, the system regains plasticity so that it can continue to learn new memories indefinitely. Recently, Keim & Nagel showed how multiple transient memories could be generalized to a generic driven disordered system with noise, giving as an example simulations of a simple model of a sheared non-Brownian suspension. Here, we further explore simulation models of suspensions under cyclic shear, focussing on three main themes: robustness, structure, and overdriving. We show that multiple transient memories are a robust feature independent of many details of the model. The steady-state spatial distribution of the particles is sensitive to the driving algorithm; nonetheless, the memory formation is independent of such a change in particle correlations. Finally, we demonstrate that overdriving provides another means for controlling memory formation and retention

Multiple transient memories in experiments on sheared non-Brownian suspensions

A system with multiple transient memories can remember a set of inputs but subsequently forgets almost all of them, even as they are continually applied. If noise is added, the system can store all memories indefinitely. The phenomenon has recently been predicted for cyclically sheared non-Brownian suspensions. Here we present experiments on such suspensions, finding behavior consistent with multiple transient memories and showing how memories can be stabilized by noise.Comment: 5 pages, 4 figure

Relationships between synoptic-scale transport and interannual variability of inorganic cations in surface snow at Summit, Greenland: 1992-1996

To fully utilize the long-term chemical records retrieved from central Greenland ice cores, specific relationships between atmospheric circulation and the variability of chemical species in the records need to be better understood. This research examines associations between the variability of surface snow inorganic cation chemistry at Summit, Greenland (collected during 1992–1996 summer field seasons) and changes in air mass transport pathways and source regions, as well as variations in aerosol source strength. Transport patterns and source regions are determined through 10-day isentropic backward air mass trajectories during a 1 month (late May to late June) common season over the 5 years. Changes in the extent of exposed continental surfaces in source regions are evaluated to estimate aerosol-associated calcium and magnesium ion source strength, while forest fire activity in the circumpolar north is investigated to estimate aerosol ammonium ion source strength. During the 1995 common season, 3 times more calcium and magnesium accumulated in the snowpack than the other study years. Also, an increasing trend of ammonium concentration was noted throughout the 5 years. Anomalous transport pathways and velocities were observed during 1995, which likely contributed to the high levels of calcium and magnesium. Increased forest fire activity in North America was concurrent with increased levels of ammonium and potassium, except for 1996, when ion levels were above average and forest fire activity was below average. Because of the ubiquitous nature of soluble ions, we conclude that it is very difficult to establish a quantitative link between the ion content of snow and firn at Summit and changes in aerosol source regions and source strength

The Korean Peasant at the Crossroads: A Study in Attitudes

The Korean Peasant at the Crossroads, by Willard D. Keim: Since the advent of written history at least some four millennia ago, the world has been to a large degree a peasant world. There are still nations among those newly independent since World War II with 80 percent of their populations living in the countryside. And it has not been so many decades ago that the major nations of Europe were composed predominantly of a peasantry and its concomitant technology. The United States crossed the rural-urban divide of 50 percent living in rural areas in about 1920, Italy in the 1940s, and Korea in the early 1970s. Were it not for the industrial revolution, which originated in Europe and has extended its impact around the globe, the world would still consist of urban centers surrounded by vast oceans of countryside, villages, and peasant-tillers. It is certainly no news to persons living in the United States, where less than ten percent of the population is at present actively engaged in raising the crops needed to feed its expanded population, and to some of the rest of the world that the age of the peasant, the even pace of life in semi-isolated villages, is gone forever.https://cedar.wwu.edu/easpress/1012/thumbnail.jp