Quantifying the Storm Time Thermospheric Neutral Density Variations Using Model and Observations

Accurate determination of thermospheric neutral density holds crucial importance for satellite drag calculations. The problem is twofold and involves the correct estimation of the quiet time climatology and storm time variations. In this work, neutral density estimations from two empirical and three physicsâ based models of the ionosphereâ thermosphere are compared with the neutral densities along the Challenging Microâ Satellite Payload satellite track for six geomagnetic storms. Storm time variations are extracted from neutral density by (1) subtracting the mean difference between model and observation (bias), (2) setting climatological variations to zero, and (3) multiplying model data with the quiet time ratio between the model and observation. Several metrics are employed to evaluate the model performances. We find that the removal of bias or climatology reveals actual performance of the model in simulating the storm time variations. When bias is removed, depending on event and model, storm time errors in neutral density can decrease by an amount of 113% or can increase by an amount of 12% with respect to error in models with quiet time bias. It is shown that using only average and maximum values of neutral density to determine the model performances can be misleading since a model can estimate the averages fairly well but may not capture the maximum value or vice versa. Since each of the metrics used for determining model performances provides different aspects of the error, among these, we suggest employing mean absolute error, prediction efficiency, and normalized root mean square error together as a standard set of metrics for the neutral density.Plain Language SummaryThermospheric neutral density is the largest source of uncertainty in atmospheric drag calculations. Consequently, mission and maneuver planning, satellite lifetime predictions, collision avoidance, and orbit determination depend on the accurate estimation of the thermospheric neutral density. Thermospheric neutral density varies in different timescales. In short timescales, the largest variations occur due to the geomagnetic storms. Several empirical and physicsâ based models of the ionosphereâ thermosphere system are used for estimating the variations in the neutral density. However, the storm time responses from the models are clouded by the climatology (background variations), upon which the effect of geomagnetic storms is superimposed. In this work, we show that it is critical to use reference levels for the neutral density to extract the true performance of the models for the evaluation of the storm time performances. We demonstrate that mean absolute error, prediction efficiency, and normalized root mean square error should be considered together for the performance evaluations, since each of them provides different aspects of the error.Key PointsUsing the average and maximum values of neutral densities to determine the model performances can be misleadingRemoving the quiet time trend from the neutral density reveals the actual performance of the model in simulating the storm time variationsMean absolute error, prediction efficiency, and normalized root mean square error should be considered together for the evaluationsPeer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/148396/1/swe20816_am.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/148396/2/swe20816-sup-0001-2018SW002033-SI.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/148396/3/swe20816.pd

Cost-effectiveness of nurse-led self-help for recurrent depression in the primary care setting: design of a pragmatic randomized trial

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Major Depressive Disorder is a leading cause of disability, tends to run a recurrent course and is associated with substantial economic costs due to increased healthcare utilization and productivity losses. Interventions aimed at the prevention of recurrences may reduce patients' suffering and costs. Besides antidepressants, several psychological treatments such as preventive cognitive therapy (PCT) are effective in the prevention of recurrences of depression. Yet, many patients find long-term use of antidepressants unattractive, do not want to engage in therapy sessions and in the primary care setting psychologists are often not available. Therefore, it is important to study whether PCT can be used in a nurse-led self-help format in primary care. This study sets out to test the hypothesis that usual care plus nurse-led self-help for recurrent depression in primary care is feasible, acceptable and cost-effective compared to usual care only.</p> <p>Design</p> <p>Patients are randomly assigned to ‘nurse-led self-help treatment plus usual care’ (134 participants) or ‘usual care’ (134 participants). Randomisation is stratified according to the number of previous episodes (2 or 3 previous episodes versus 4 or more). The primary clinical outcome is the cumulative recurrence rate of depression meeting DSM-IV criteria as assessed by the Structured-Clinical-Interview-for-DSM-IV- disorders at one year after completion of the intervention. Secondary clinical outcomes are quality of life, severity of depressive symptoms, co-morbid psychopathology and self-efficacy. As putative effect-moderators, demographic characteristics, number of previous episodes, type of treatment during previous episodes, age of onset, self-efficacy and symptoms of pain and fatigue are assessed. Cumulative recurrence rate ratios are obtained under a Poisson regression model. Number-needed-to-be-treated is calculated as the inverse of the risk-difference. The economic evaluation is conducted from a societal perspective, both as a cost-effectiveness analysis (costs per depression free survival year) and as a cost-utility analysis (costs per quality adjusted life-year).</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>The purpose of this paper is to outline the rationale and design of a nurse-led, cognitive therapy based self-help aimed at preventing recurrence of depression in a primary care setting. Only few studies have focused on psychological self-help interventions aimed at the prevention of recurrences in primary care patients.</p> <p>Trial registration</p> <p>NTR3001 (<url>http://www.trialregister.nl</url>)</p

The Earth: Plasma Sources, Losses, and Transport Processes

This paper reviews the state of knowledge concerning the source of magnetospheric plasma at Earth. Source of plasma, its acceleration and transport throughout the system, its consequences on system dynamics, and its loss are all discussed. Both observational and modeling advances since the last time this subject was covered in detail (Hultqvist et al., Magnetospheric Plasma Sources and Losses, 1999) are addressed

Cooperation between Russian research organizations and industrial companies: factors and problems

The study is focused on the cooperation of Russian companies with research organizations in implementing R&D projects during technological innovation. Taking into account behavioral changes, authors carry out a micro-level analysis based on empirical data of executive survey of over 600 Russian industrial firms (2011—2012) and about 350 research organizations and universities (2012). The authors emphasize the key factors of firms’ demand for outsourcing R&D reveal the main barriers to the development of university-industry cooperation and their particularities for different cooperation actors. The analysis shows that there is a positive relation between the size of a company and R&D outsourcing. As for the factor of age, the highest cooperation activity of Russian firms is observed among enterprises founded over 20 years ago. As far as concernes cooperation activity of research organizations, large ones are significantly more likely to cooperate with business. A common prerequisite for research organizations' R&D cooperation with business is sufficient academic ranking. Business and science evaluate differently various obstacles to effective cooperation. For firms, the main problems are the inflated costs of national R&Ds, insufficient research organizations’ orientation at company needs, and low quality of developments. As for representatives of research organizations, they mention as barriers primarily the lack of companies' receptivity to innovation and inadequate information about promising developments. Businesses are more optimistic about cooperation with science if they already have a relevant experience of interaction. In the case of research organizations we observe a different pattern: most problems seem more significant to organizations conducting R&D in business interests

Inhibition of STAT3 expression via chemically modified siRNA's enhances the effects of cisplatin in the parental and resistant Calu1 non-small cell lung cancer cells

38th Congress of the Federation-of-European-Biochemical-Societies (FEBS) -- JUL 06-11, 2013 -- Saint Petersburg, RUSSIAWOS: 000325919200264Federat European Biochemical So

Capsaicin induced apoptosis and gene expression dysregulation of human acute lymphoblastic leukemia CCRF-CEM cells

38th Congress of the Federation-of-European-Biochemical-Societies (FEBS) -- JUL 06-11, 2013 -- Saint Petersburg, RUSSIAWOS: 000325919200276Federat European Biochemical So