Foundations of Bayesian Theory

This paper states necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence, uniqueness, and updating according to Bayes?rule, of subjective probabilities representing individuals?beliefs. The approach is preference based, and the result is an axiomatic subjective expected utility model of Bayesian decision making under uncertainty with statedependent preferences. The theory provides foundations for the existence of prior probabilities representing decision makers?beliefs about the likely realization of events and for the updating of these probabilities according to Bayes?rule.

A Theory of Bayesian Decision Making

This paper presents a complete, choice-based, axiomatic Bayesian decision theory. It introduces a new choice set consisting of information-contingent plans for choosing actions and bets and subjective expected utility model with effect-dependent utility functions and action-dependent subjective probabilities which, in conjunction with the updating of the probabilities using Bayes' rule, gives rise to a unique prior and a set of action-dependent posterior probabilities representing the decision maker's prior and posterior beliefs.

PENINGKATAN MOTIVASI DAN HASIL BELAJAR ILMU PENGETAHUAN ALAM MELALUI METODE DEMONSTRASI BAGI SISWA KELAS III SD NEGERI 1 TERMAS KECAMATAN KARANGRAYUNG KABUPATEN GROBOGAN PADA SEMESTER I TAHUN PELAJARAN 2016/2017

The purpose of this study were: 1) To describe the application of the Demonstration Method to increase learningmotivation and student learning outcomes in science subjects in class III of SD Negeri 1 Termas in Karangrayung District,Grobogan Regency, Semester I 2016/2017 Academic Year. 2) To describe the impact of using media in the form of liquid,gas and healthy environment in understanding science learning and its effects on student learning outcomes. The placewhere Classroom Action Research is carried out is students in Class III of SD Negeri 1 Termas, Karangrayung District,Grobogan Regency. This Classroom Action Research is carried out in the first semester of the 2016/2017 school year. Theconclusions of the results of learning improvements that researchers have carried out are as follows: 1) Through theDemonstration Method motivation and learning outcomes of Science for Students in Class III of Termas 1 ElementarySchool in Karangrayung District, Grobogan Regency in Semester I 2016/2017 Academic Year increased. 2) In the learningoutcomes of the improvement are: 1)) The number of pre-cycle 1200, Cycle II 1780 increased by 580 points. 2)) Theaverage score, pre-cycle 54.54, cycle II 80.90 increased by 26.36. 3)) The highest score of pre-cycle 70, cycle II 100increased by 30. 4)) The lowest score of pre-cycle 40 in three children, cycle II 70 in nine children. 5)) Many studentscomplete, pre-cycle 3 people (13.63%), cycle II 22 people (100%). 5)) Students have not completed pre-cycle 19 people(86.37%) cycle does not exist (0)

Why Does it Matter that Beliefs and Valuations be Correctly Represented?

This paper contains an analysis of a simple principal-agent problem illustrating possible problems that may arise when the prinicpal ascribes to the agent subjective probabilities and utilities that are implied by the subjective expected utility model but do not represent the agent's beliefs and valuations. In particular, it is possible that an incentive contract designed by the principal indices the agent to choose an action that is not in the principal's best interest.principal agent theory;moral hazard

Moral Sentiments and Social Choice: Fairness Considerations in University Admissions

We examine the implications for social choice of individuals having an intrinsic sense of fairness. Taking the viewpoint that social justice reflects the moral attitudes of the constituent members, we analyze the effect of the intensity of the individual sense of fairness on university admission policies. Assuming that these policies are determined by bargaining over test scores to be used as cut-off points for admission of members of diverse social groups show that, in general, a more intense sense of fairness of the members of a group leads to an admission policy that is more compatible with their idea of fairness. Consequently, a society whose members have a common notion tends to implement fairer admission policies when the intensity of the sense of fairness of individual memebrs increase. This is even if the policies are ultimately determined by the bargaining power of the different groups.

States of nature and the nature of states

This paper discusses the definition of the state space and corresponding choice sets that figure in the theory of decision making under uncertainty. It elucidates an approach that overcomes some conceptual difficulties with the standard models and accommodates a procedure for expanding the state space in the wake of growing awareness

Objective and Subjective Expected Utility with Incomplete Preferences

This paper extends the expected utility models of decision making under risk and under uncertainty to include incomplete beliefs and tastes. The main results are two axiomatizations of the multi-prior expected multi-utility representations of preference relation under uncertainty, thereby resolving long standing open questions. The Knightian uncertainty model and expected multi-utility model with complete beliefs are obtained as special cases. In addition, the von Neumann-Morgenstern expected utility model with incomplete preferences is revisited using a "constructive" approach, as opposed to earlier treatments that use convex analysis.