Training on understanding, communicating, and using the downscaled seasonal forecast

This report describes a one-day workshop that presented new downscaled seasonal climate forecasts and a brief training program on how to understand, communicate and use new format with farmer groups. It builds on and extends the previous PICSA training workshops by (a) shifting from the use of station rainfall data to merged gridded data, and (b) introducing experimental seasonal forecasts presented as shifted probability distributions. The workshop began with an introduction to downscaled forecasts in probability-of-exceedance format, and discussion of plans to make these forecasts available through the Meteo-Rwanda maprooms. Key concepts were explained, and their equivalent terms in Kinyarwanda were discussed. Participants were led through an interactive process of eliciting collective memory of rainfall in recent years, developing a time-series graph based on the past 5 years of rainfall data, and then sorting the time series into a probability-of-exceedance graph. Instruction and a breakout group exercise taught participants to interpret probability-of-exceedance graphs. A discussion about El Niño was used to introduce the concept of a seasonal forecast, build confidence that there is a physical basis for seasonal forecasting, reinforce the probabilistic nature of seasonal forecast, and prepare participants to accept the new seasonal forecast format. Showing a probability-of-exceedance graph for El Niño against the probability-of-exceedance for all years is the final step to preparing intermediaries, or the farmers they serve, to understand the new seasonal forecast format. Downscaled forecasts of September-December 2016 total rainfall showed a weak to moderate probability shift towards dryer conditions. The presentation of the current forecast was followed by a discussion of the approach that was presented in the workshop, how the forecast system performs, and how to present the historical and forecast information to farmers. The workshop ended with discussion of action plans for using the new forecasts for project communication and planning activities in the four target districts

Modelling the soil water balance of potatoes for improved irrigation management

Soil Water Balance (SWB), is a generic and mechanistic crop growth model that has been successfully used to model the water balance of several crops. Its ability to combine crop water modelling and irrigation scheduling approaches allows it to be used as a research tool and an irrigation management tool. Since SWB is a tool that could be used as decision making tool for farmers, its accuracy in simulating crop growth, development and soil water balance should be high. To highlight the importance of improved irrigation management for potato crop by the means of a mechanistic soil water balance model and the importance of the photoperiod factor in potato modelling in sub-tropical region, two potato experiments were carried out in two contrasting seasons, namely, spring and autumn. Growth and development responses of potato under both well irrigated and water stressed conditions for spring and autumn plantings were examined. This study successfully quantified the water use and potato growth responses to water stress. The water use efficiency varied with irrigation treatments and planting time, and autumn experiment had generally higher values than spring. Unstressed treatment gave the highest tuber yields irrespective of planting season and marketable tuber yield was higher in autumn than spring. Water stress imposed at tuber initiation until end of tuber bulking was revealed to be the most detrimental to biomass and tuber production. This suggests that water stress at tuber initiation and bulking stage should be avoided if high tuber yield is the target. Growth analysis data were used to determine crop parameters for SWB calibration and validation. The model simulated reasonably well growth, development and soil water balance in both unstressed and stressed conditions. However, simulations results of total and harvestable dry matter towards the end of the exponential tuber bulking stage (50 - 65 DAP) were deteriorated. As a result, the model did not simulate accurately the final yield. This is an indication that the model fails to simulate the size of the canopy and its duration. The time at which tuber initiation commences appeared not be affected by the planting seasons since variation of the duration between emergence and tuber initiation in different seasons was small. This small variation could be attributed to the fact that the potato growing season in South Africa (Pretoria) in spring 2004 and autumn 2005 experiences minimum and maximum temperatures which are acceptable for the growth of potato. In Pretoria, emergence and tuberisation take place under relatively cool temperatures late in September and also early in April when temperatures are relatively cool. Consequently, potato grown in this period may escape the early autumn and late spring high temperatures. However, autumn planting experiences an abrupt change of day lengths from long days to short days towards tuber initiation. This brusque change of day length may change the crop physiology and affect the subsequent normal course of plant growth. If the day length factor could be integrated into SWB, it appears that the model will better simulate potato growth and development. The poor simulation results of total dry matter and harvestable dry matter early in the growing season suggest that the model should be improved by allowing it to simulate the start of tuber initiation. A linear function of average temperature between a base and an optimal temperature corrected with photoperiod factor was found to be the most appropriate method to estimate thermal time required for tuber initiation. This method suggests that the time of tuber initiation can be estimated from its thermal time within two days.Dissertation (MSc (Soil Science))--University of Pretoria, 2007.Plant Production and Soil ScienceMScunrestricte

Training on seasonal forecasting using the IRI Climate Predictability Tool and Data Library

This report summarizes the interactions, discussions, and analyses of Asher Siebert, Post-Doctoral Research Scientist at the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), during his three-week visit to Rwanda in late August to mid- September 2017 as part of the Rwanda Climate Services for Agriculture project. The project aims to provide climate services widely throughout Rwanda and help farmers better adapt to climate variability and climate change impacts. In doing so, the project seeks to help improve agriculture outcomes and ensure food security. During the visit, trainings were held to discuss seasonal climate forecasting and downscaling methods. A particular national forecast for Rwanda along with downscaled results in probability of exceedance format for ten Rwandan districts (those in the first two phases of the project) was developed using the IRI Climate Predictability Tool (CPT). A critical component of the project’s mission is capacity building and to that end, a number of staff from the Rwanda Meteorology Agency (Météo Rwanda) were trained in CPT, the IRI Data Library, and the Météo Rwanda maprooms. Further discussions addressed longer-term collaborative work on both climatology and further seasonal prediction work, particularly with regard to El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Discussions with experts at International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT) and the Rwanda Agriculture Board (RAB) also focused on the newly developed water balance maprooms and the possibilities of updating these maprooms in the future

Workshop report: Training and Development of Downscaled Seasonal Forecasts for Pilot Districts, Kigali, Rwanda

This report summarizes the discussions, analysis and interactions during IRI postdoctoral research scientist Asher Siebert’s one-week stay in Rwanda in late August 2016 as part of the CCAFS-Rwanda project. The overall aim of this project is help farmers in Rwanda to be better adapted to climate variability and any climate change they may face, and, in doing so, to help improve food security and agricultural outcomes. Seasonal forecasting and downscaling methods were discussed, and a particular national forecast made with the Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) and was shared, along with downscaled results in probability of exceedance format. In country meteorology participants were trained in CPT. Further discussions addressed longer-term collaborative work on both climatology and further seasonal prediction work, particularly with regard to El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Discussions with experts at CIAT and the Rwanda Agriculture Board also addressed the prospect of using the Water Requirement Satisfaction Index (WRSI) as a monitoring and climate/agriculture risk management tool in the future

Workshop Report: Launch of Enhancing National Climate Services (ENACTS) and Rwanda Climate Services for Agriculture Project

This report presents the outputs of the joint launch of the Enhancing National Climate Services (ENACTS) program of Meteo Rwanda and the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) Rwanda Climate Services for Agriculture (RCSA) project. This launch brought together key government agencies in Rwanda, research organizations, farmers’ representatives, development partners, non-governmental organizations and media. The aim of the one day workshop was to launch the ENACTS products provided by Meteo Rwanda and to introduce the RCSA project to the government and public. This was a transition from the design phase of the project to the implementation phase. The report includes the process of the launch event, presentations made and the main comments by participants

Climate services for agriculture in Rwanda: initial findings from PICSA monitoring and evaluation

Key messages * More than 2,600 farmers have been trained in the first year rolling out PICSA in Rwanda. * Farmers find the different elements of the PICSA approach useful and are using them in their decision-making processes, namely historical climate information, participatory budgets, and seasonal forecast. * As a result of the PICSA training and the information shared, the vast majority of those farmers are making changes in their crops, livestock, and/or livelihood enterprises. * Farmers are sharing the different PICSA tools and information with their peers

Participatory Integrated Climate Services for Agriculture (PICSA) Intermediary Training in Muhanga, Rwanda

The Rwanda Climate Services for Agriculture project is a four-year initiative (2016-2019) that seeks to transform Rwanda’s rural farming communities and national economy through improved climate risk management. This report presents the outputs of a five-day training workshop in Muhanga, Rwanda on the use of the Participatory Integrated Climate Services for Agriculture (PICSA) approach to help farmers make climate informed decisions. This training brought together farmer promoters, Social Economic Development Officers (SEDOs), as well as Sector Agronomists from the four pilot districts in Rwanda. The training workshop aimed to initiate the process of PICSA implementation starting by training lead farmers who will train farmers in the use of the PICSA approach. The report includes the process of the training workshop, presentations, and the evaluation by participants

Participatory Integrated Climate Services for Agriculture (PICSA) Specialist Intermediary Training in Nyamata, Rwanda

The Rwanda Climate Services for Agriculture project is a four-year initiative (2016-2019) that seeks to transform Rwanda’s rural farming communities and national economy through improved climate risk management. This report presents the outputs of a five-day training on the use of a Participatory Integrated Climate Services for Agriculture (PICSA) approach to help farmers make climate informed decisions. This training brought together key government agencies in Rwanda, research organizations, farmers’ representatives, development partners, non-governmental organizations, and media. The one week training workshop aimed to initiate the process to develop skills of staff to become a group of expert trainers in the PICSA approach. The report includes the proceeding of the training workshop as well as reflections on workshop outcomes and feedback by participants

Planning workshop for Rwanda Climate Services for Agriculture project

This report presents the outputs of the planning workshop for the Rwanda Climate Services for Agriculture Project. The main objective of this planning workshop was to engage key partners in project planning, revise the project’s specific activities, revise the timeline and work-plan for all implementation and monitoring and evaluation activities for the first year of the project. This workshop brought together all project implementation team members, and key partners such as Twigire muhinzi through which the services will be disseminated to farmers as the biggest stakeholders of the project. The implementing team was drawn from the International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), the University of Reading (UR), International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI), the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), Rwanda Agriculture Board (RAB) and Rwanda Meteorological Agency (Meteo-Rwanda). The two days planning meeting came up with an activity plan for all the four outcomes of the project, with responsible institutions and key partners for implementation. The report includes the process of the workshop, brief summary on presentations made, and the key summary and action points from the meeting

Exploring pathways for gender-responsive climate services in Rwanda

A recent study suggests that women are significantly less aware of climate information than men in all provinces of Rwanda (Coulibaly et al., 2017). This gap may be associated with ownership of communication assets and participation in social groups as means of communication of the information where women are far behind men (Coulibaly et al., 2017). In Rwandan agriculture, women represent the highest proportion (90.8% by NISR, 2013), therefore increasing access and uptake of climate information among women will improve their planning and farm management decisions