Assisting decision-making in Queensland barley production through chance constrained programming

A chance constrained programming model is developed to assist Queensland barley growers make varietal and agronomic decisions in the face of changing product demands and volatile production conditions. Unsuitable or overlooked in many risk programming applications, the chance constrained programming approach nonetheless aptly captures the single‐stage decision problem faced by barley growers of whether to plant lower‐yielding but potentially higher‐priced malting varieties, given a particular expectation of meeting malting grade standards. Different expectations greatly affect the optimal mix of malting and feed barley activities. The analysis highlights the suitability of chance constrained programming to this specific class of farm decision problem.Crop Production/Industries,

The Trade and Investment Effects of Preferential Trading Arrangements

This study quantifies the impact of traditional and new age' provisions of preferential trading arrangements (PTAs) on merchandise trade and investment. It does so by estimating gravity models of bilateral trade and investment. It finds that recent and some past PTAs are not as benign as some contemporary empirical assessments have suggested. A careful consideration of the analytical issues including controlling comprehensively for other observable and unobservable factors, and testing explicitly for whether the trade and investment effects are significantly different after PTA formation than before accounts for less favourable finding in this study. It is also possible for PTAs to have adverse effects on investment flows. If investment responds in beachhead' fashion to the trade provisions of PTAs, the trade carried out from those beachheads could constitute traditional trade diversion. However, the paper finds little evidence of beachhead investment. Instead, it finds evidence of net investment creation in response to the new age', non-trade provisions of PTAs. Thus the finding on investment is more positive than for trade, but not without qualifications, since trade diversion is still possible from the new investment positions.

Trends and developments in India's livestock industries.

Since India’s independence some 50 years ago, it has experienced considerable economic growth and structural change; a trend accelerated by its structural reforms which began in 1991. These changes are also reflected in trends in its livestock sector which has shown considerable growth in recent decades (especially since the late 1970s). There have also been major changes in the composition of the Indian livestock sector. The population of non- ruminants (particularly chickens) has expanded very rapidly and so their relative importance has risen substantially. Non-ruminant production (poultry and pigs) has increasingly become commercialised and industrial in nature. Trends and developments in India’s livestock industries since 1961 are outlined. Consequences and prospects for consumption of livestock products in India and international trade are discussed along with the environmental impacts of developments in India’s livestock industries. As observed, livestock developments in India have been significantly influenced by religious and cultural factors. Consequently, the nature of India’s livestock sector is to some extent unique

Price relationships in the Queensland barley market

Barley can be differentiated into feed and malting barley based on its end-use markets. Substitutability both in supply and in demand complicates analysis of price information in the barley market. This article examines the price linkages between feed and malting barley in the Queensland barley market using cointegration and error correction models. Malting barley prices respond to restore equilibrium relationships with corresponding feed barley prices in the long run, but not vice versa. Thus feed barley prices appear to be a leading indicator of malting barley prices. [JEL codes: L100, C22, N57.] © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

ANALYSIS OF INTEGRATION BETWEEN QUEENSLAND FEED AND MALTING BARLEY MARKETS

Barley can be differentiated into feed and malting barley based on its end-use markets. Substitutability both in supply and in demand complicates analysis of price information in the barley market. The paper examines the price linkages between feed and malting barley in the Queensland barley market by using cointegration and error correction models. Malting barley prices respond to restore equilibrium relationships with corresponding feed barley prices in the long run, but not vice versa. Thus there appears to be a price leadership role for feed barley, and one-way substitutability and quality differences in the barley market