Towards a Structural View of Resilience

The result of resilience is persistence: the maintenance of certain characteristic behavioral properties in the face of stress, strain and surprise. But the origins of this resilient behavior lie in the structure of the systems which concern us. Our need as policy analysts may only be one of comparative measures: Which system is more resilient? But as active designers -- as engineers, managers, or responsible policy advisors -- we need to be able to say what mechanisms or relationships make a system resilient, and what actions we can take to make it more or less so. This need for a causal view of resilience led us to a search for persistence-promoting (or "resilient") mechanisms and relationships in a variety of natural and man-made systems

Thermal Conductivity of Thermally-Isolating Polymeric and Composite Structural Support Materials Between 0.3 and 4 K

We present measurements of the low-temperature thermal conductivity of a number of polymeric and composite materials from 0.3 to 4 K. The materials measured are Vespel SP-1, Vespel SP-22, unfilled PEEK, 30% carbon fiber-filled PEEK, 30% glass-filled PEEK, carbon fiber Graphlite composite rod, Torlon 4301, G-10/FR-4 fiberglass, pultruded fiberglass composite, Macor ceramic, and graphite rod. These materials have moderate to high elastic moduli making them useful for thermally-isolating structural supports.Comment: Accepted for publication in the journal Cryogenic

A Case Study of Forest Ecosystem Pest Management

The boreal forests of North America have, for centuries, experienced periodic outbreaks of a defoliating insect called the Spruce Budworm. In anyone outbreak cycle a major proportion of the mature softwood forest in effected areas can die, with major consequences to the economy and employment of regions like New Brunswick, which are highly dependent on the forest industry. An extensive insecticide spraying programme initiated in New Brunswick in 1951 has succeeded in minimizing tree mortality, but at the price of maintaining incipient outbreak conditions over an area considerably more extensive than in the past. The present management approach is, therefore, particularly sensitive to unexpected shifts in economic, social and regulatory constraints, and to unanticipated behavior of the forest ecosystem. Most major environmental problems in the world today are characterized by similar basic ingredients: high variability in space and time, large scale, and a troubled management history. Because of their enormous complexity there has been little concerted effort to apply systems analysis techniques to the coordinated development of effective descriptions of, and prescriptions for, such problems. The Budworm-forest system seemed to present an admirable focus for a case study with two objectives. The first, of course, was to attempt to develop sets of alternate policies appropriate for the specific problem. But the more significant purpose was to see just how far we could stretch the state of the art capabilities in ecology, modeling, optimization, policy design and evaluation to apply them to complex ecosystem management problems. Three principal issues in any resource environmental problem challenge existing techniques. The resources that provide the food, fibre and recreational opportunities for society are integral parts of ecosystems characterized by complex interrelationships of many species among each other and with the land, water and climate in which they live. The interactions of these systems are highly non-linear and have a significant spatial component. Events in anyone point in space, just as at any moment of time, can affect events at other points in space and time. The resulting high order of dimensionality becomes all the more significant as these ecological systems couple with complex social and economic ones. The second prime challenge is that we have only partial knowledge of the variables and relationships governing the systems. A large body of theoretical and experimental analysis and data has led to an identification of the general form and kind of functional relations existing between organisms. nut only occasionally is there a rich body of data specific to anyone situation. To develop an analysis which implicitly or explicitly presumes sufficient knowledge is therefore to guarantee management policies that become more the source of the problem than the source of the solution. In a particularly challenging way present ecological management situations require concepts and techniques which cope creatively with the uncertainties and unknowns that in fact pervade most of our major social, economic and environmental problems. The third and final challenge reflects the previous two: How can we design policies that achieve specific social objectives and yet are still "robust"? Policies which, once set in play, produce intelligently linked ecological, social and economic systems that can absorb the unexpected events and unknowns that will inevitably appear. These "unexpecteds" might be the one in a thousand year drought that perversely occurs this year; the appearance or disappearance of key species, the emergence of new economic and regulatory constrains or the shift of societal objectives. We must learn to design in a way which shifts our emphasis away from minimizing the probability of failure, towards minimizing the cost of those failures which will inevitably occur

Lessons for Ecological Policy Design: A Case Study of Ecosystem Management

This paper explores the prospects for combining elements of the ecological and policy sciences to form a substantive and effective science of ecological policy design. This exploration is made through a case study whose specific focus is the management problem posed by competition between man and an insect (the spruce budworm, Choristoneura fumiferana) for utilization of coniferous forests in the Canadian Province of New Brunswick

Cosmological CPT Violation and CMB Polarization Measurements

In this paper we study the possibility of testing Charge-Parity-Time Reversal (CPT) symmetry with cosmic microwave background (CMB) experiments. We consider two kinds of Chern-Simons (CS) term, electromagnetic CS term and gravitational CS term, and study their effects on the CMB polarization power spectra in detail. By combining current CMB polarization measurements, the seven-year WMAP, BOOMERanG 2003 and BICEP observations, we obtain a tight constraint on the rotation angle $\Delta\alpha=-2.28\pm1.02$ deg ($1\,\sigma$), indicating a $2.2\,\sigma$ detection of the CPT violation. Here, we particularly take the systematic errors of CMB measurements into account. After adding the QUaD polarization data, the constraint becomes $-1.34<\Delta\alpha<0.82$ deg at 95% confidence level. When comparing with the effect of electromagnetic CS term, the gravitational CS term could only generate TB and EB power spectra with much smaller amplitude. Therefore, the induced parameter $\epsilon$ can not be constrained from the current polarization data. Furthermore, we study the capabilities of future CMB measurements, Planck and CMBPol, on the constraints of $\Delta\alpha$ and $\epsilon$. We find that the constraint of $\Delta\alpha$ can be significantly improved by a factor of 15. Therefore, if this rotation angle effect can not be taken into account properly, the constraints of cosmological parameters will be biased obviously. For the gravitational CS term, the future Planck data still can not constrain $\epsilon$ very well, if the primordial tensor perturbations are small, $r <0.1$. We need the more accurate CMBPol experiment to give better constraint on $\epsilon$.Comment: 11 pages, 5 figures, 4 tables, Accepted for publication in JCA

Information theoretic derivation of network architecture and learning algorithms

Using variational techniques, we derive a feedforward network architecture that minimizes a least squares cost function with the soft constraint that the mutual information between input and output be maximized. This permits optimum generalization for a given accuracy. A set of learning algorithms are also obtained. The network and learning algorithms are tested on a set of test problems which emphasize time series prediction. 6 refs., 1 fig

Project Status Report: Ecology and Environment Project

We present here the extended outline and copies of the illustrations used in the Status Report of the IIASA Ecology and Environment Project, presented at Schloss Laxenburg on 21 June 1974. Section 1., "General Review", is covered in the outline. Section 2., "A Case Study of Ecosystem Management", is the subject of a major monograph now in preparation. Section 3., on Selected Conceptual Developments, is in part documented in IIASA Research Reports RR-73-3 and RR-74-3

On the role of the magnetic dipolar interaction in cold and ultracold collisions: Numerical and analytical results for NH(3Σ−^3\Sigma^-) + NH(3Σ−^3\Sigma^-)

We present a detailed analysis of the role of the magnetic dipole-dipole interaction in cold and ultracold collisions. We focus on collisions between magnetically trapped NH molecules, but the theory is general for any two paramagnetic species for which the electronic spin and its space-fixed projection are (approximately) good quantum numbers. It is shown that dipolar spin relaxation is directly associated with magnetic-dipole induced avoided crossings that occur between different adiabatic potential curves. For a given collision energy and magnetic field strength, the cross-section contributions from different scattering channels depend strongly on whether or not the corresponding avoided crossings are energetically accessible. We find that the crossings become lower in energy as the magnetic field decreases, so that higher partial-wave scattering becomes increasingly important \textit{below} a certain magnetic field strength. In addition, we derive analytical cross-section expressions for dipolar spin relaxation based on the Born approximation and distorted-wave Born approximation. The validity regions of these analytical expressions are determined by comparison with the NH + NH cross sections obtained from full coupled-channel calculations. We find that the Born approximation is accurate over a wide range of energies and field strengths, but breaks down at high energies and high magnetic fields. The analytical distorted-wave Born approximation gives more accurate results in the case of s-wave scattering, but shows some significant discrepancies for the higher partial-wave channels. We thus conclude that the Born approximation gives generally more meaningful results than the distorted-wave Born approximation at the collision energies and fields considered in this work.Comment: Accepted by Eur. Phys. J. D for publication in Special Issue on Cold Quantum Matter - Achievements and Prospects (2011

Evolution of active and polar photospheric magnetic fields during the rise of Cycle 24 compared to previous cycles

The evolution of the photospheric magnetic field during the declining phase and minimum of Cycle 23 and the recent rise of Cycle 24 are compared with the behavior during previous cycles. We used longitudinal full-disk magnetograms from the NSO's three magnetographs at Kitt Peak, the Synoptic Optical Long-term Investigations of the Sun (SOLIS) Vector Spectro-Magnetograph (VSM), the Spectromagnetograph and the 512-Channel Magnetograph instruments, and longitudinal full-disk magnetograms from the Mt. Wilson 150-foot tower. We analyzed 37 years of observations from these two observatories that have been observing daily, weather permitting, since 1974, offering an opportunity to study the evolving relationship between the active region and polar fields in some detail over several solar cycles. It is found that the annual averages of a proxy for the active region poloidal magnetic field strength, the magnetic field strength of the high-latitude poleward streams, and the time derivative of the polar field strength are all well correlated in each hemisphere. These results are based on statistically significant cyclical patterns in the active region fields and are consistent with the Babcock-Leighton phenomenological model for the solar activity cycle. There was more hemispheric asymmetry in the activity level, as measured by total and maximum active region flux, during late Cycle 23 (after around 2004), when the southern hemisphere was more active, and Cycle 24 up to the present, when the northern hemisphere has been more active, than at any other time since 1974. The active region net proxy poloidal fields effectively disappeared in both hemispheres around 2004, and the polar fields did not become significantly stronger after this time. We see evidence that the process of Cycle 24 field reversal has begun at both poles.Comment: Accepted for publication in Solar Physic

Purely-long-range bound states of He(2s3S)+(2s ^3S)+He(2p3P)(2p ^3P)

We predict the presence and positions of purely-long-range bound states of $^4$He$(2s ^3S)+{}^4$He$(2p ^3P)$ near the $2s ^3S_1+2p ^3P_{0,1}$ atomic limits. The results of the full multichannel and approximate models are compared, and we assess the sensitivity of the bound states to atomic parameters characterizing the potentials. Photoassociation to these purely-long-range molecular bound states may improve the knowledge of the scattering length associated with the collisions of two ultracold spin-polarized $^4$He$(2s ^3S)$ atoms, which is important for studies of Bose-Einstein condensates.Comment: 16 pages, 5 figure