Kepler's First Rocky Planet: Kepler-10b

NASA's Kepler Mission uses transit photometry to determine the frequency of Earth-size planets in or near the habitable zone of Sun-like stars. The mission reached a milestone toward meeting that goal: the discovery of its first rocky planet, Kepler-10b. Two distinct sets of transit events were detected: (1) a 152 ± 4 ppm dimming lasting 1.811 ± 0.024 hr with ephemeris T [BJD] = 2454964.57375^(+0.00060)_(–0.00082) + N * 0.837495^(+0.000004)_(–0.000005) days and (2) a 376 ± 9 ppm dimming lasting 6.86 ± 0.07 hr with ephemeris T [BJD] = 2454971.6761^(+0.0020)_(–0.0023) + N * 45.29485^(+0.00065) _(–0.00076) days. Statistical tests on the photometric and pixel flux time series established the viability of the planet candidates triggering ground-based follow-up observations. Forty precision Doppler measurements were used to confirm that the short-period transit event is due to a planetary companion. The parent star is bright enough for asteroseismic analysis. Photometry was collected at 1 minute cadence for >4 months from which we detected 19 distinct pulsation frequencies. Modeling the frequencies resulted in precise knowledge of the fundamental stellar properties. Kepler-10 is a relatively old (11.9 ± 4.5 Gyr) but otherwise Sun-like main-sequence star with T_(eff) = 5627 ± 44 K, M_⋆ = 0.895 ± 0.060 M_⊙ , and R_⋆ = 1.056 ± 0.021 R_⊙. Physical models simultaneously fit to the transit light curves and the precision Doppler measurements yielded tight constraints on the properties of Kepler-10b that speak to its rocky composition: M_P = 4.56^9+1.17)_(–1.29) M_⊕, R_P = 1.416^(+0.033)_(–0.036) R_⊕, and ρ_P = 8.8^(+2.1)_(–2.9) g cm^(–3). Kepler-10b is the smallest transiting exoplanet discovered to date

ISSUES IN NONMARKET VALUATION AND POLICY APPLICATION: A RETROSPECTIVE GLANCE

While issues in estimating nonmarket values continue to cause concern, resource economists have more reason now than ever before to be optimistic. More progress toward improved measurement has been made in the past six years than in the previous quarter century since development of the contingent valuation and travel cost methods. The new challenge is to learn how to adjust past studies to estimate nonmarket values for future policy analysis. The process involves developing an understanding of the important variables that explain the observed difference in estimates. This paper illustrates how the results thus far could be adjusted to develop some tentative estimates of the recreation-use value of Forest Service resources.Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

THE KYOTO PROTOCOL: ECONOMIC EFFECTS OF ENERGY PRICES ON NORTHERN PLAINS DRYLAND GRAIN PRODUCTION

This study examined possible economic impacts on Northern Plains grain producers of policies that could be undertaken by the United States to comply with the Kyoto Protocol. The paper begins with a discussion of the potential effects of the Kyoto Protocol on prices of energy and inputs used in agricultural production. The next section describes the data and econometric models that were used to develop a field-scale, stochastic simulation model of the crop production system typical of the Northern Plains. This model is based on econometric production models estimated with a spatially referenced, statistically representative sample of farmers in Montana. The simulation analysis shows that the impacts of higher energy prices would tend to discourage the use of fallow, raise variable costs of production by 3 to 13%, and reduce net returns above variable cost by 6 to 18% in the case of spring wheat grown on fallow, Under the higher cost scenarios assumed in an analysis conducted by the Farm Bureau, production costs for spring wheat on fallow would increase by 15 to 27% and net returns would decline by 15 to 24%.Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

THE VALUE OF SPORT FISHING IN THE SNAKE RIVER BASIN OF CENTRAL IDAHO

The value of sportfishing in the Snake River Basin in Central Idaho was measured using a two-stage/disequilibrium travel model. The two-stage/disequilibrium model does not require monetization of recreationists? travel time as required of traditional equilibrium labor market travel cost models. The model was estimated using Poisson regression, appropriate for count data when over-dispersion is absent, and adjusted for endogenous stratification (self selection bias) . Contrary to expectations that anglers living close to the sites with low values would be over represented in the sample, the endogenous stratification adjustment caused estimated consumers surplus to decline from $42 per person per trip before adjustment for endogenous stratification to$35 after adjustment. The average number of sportfishing trips per year was 6.72, resulting in an average annual willingness-to-pay of $236 per year per angler.Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Measuring the Location Value of a Recreation Site

The demand for sport fishing on the Snake River reservoirs was estimated using the travel cost method. A short-run demand model was specified with location value for anglers who have the option to access a follow-on site if fishing conditions are poor. Willingness to pay for a fishing trip to the site was $18.52 for anglers who did not have a follow-on site and$43.48 for anglers who did. A location value of $24.96 accrued only to anglers with a follow-on site. Total annual site value was understated by as much as 40$0.78 million) if location value for anglers with a follow-on site was excluded from the benefit estimate.contingent behavior, count data, endogenous stratification, follow-on site, location value, multiple destination, option value, short-run demand, travel cost method, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Does Information Transparency Decrease Coordination Failure?

This study experimentally tests the effect of information transparency on the probability of coordination failure in global games with finite signals. Prior theory has shown that in global games with unique equilibrium, the effect of information transparency is ambiguous. We find that in global games where the signal space is finite, increased transparency has two effects. First, increasing the level of transparency usually destroys uniqueness and precipitates multiple equilibria, so that the effect of transparency on coordination depends crucially upon which equilibrium is actually attained. Second, the level of transparency determines which of these equilibria is risk dominant. We find that increased transparency facilitates coordination only if it switches the risk-dominant equilibrium from the secure equilibrium to the efficient equilibrium. When the converse is true, improved transparency can be dysfunctional because it increases the probability of coordination failure.

Giant Planet Occurrence in the Stellar Mass-Metallicity Plane

Correlations between stellar properties and the occurrence rate of exoplanets can be used to inform the target selection of future planet search efforts and provide valuable clues about the planet formation process. We analyze a sample of 1194 stars drawn from the California Planet Survey targets to determine the empirical functional form describing the likelihood of a star harboring a giant planet as a function of its mass and metallicity. Our stellar sample ranges from M dwarfs with masses as low as 0.2 Msun to intermediate-mass subgiants with masses as high as 1.9 Msun. In agreement with previous studies, our sample exhibits a planet-metallicity correlation at all stellar masses; the fraction of stars that harbor giant planets scales as f \propto 10^{1.2 [Fe/H]}. We can rule out a flat metallicity relationship among our evolved stars (at 98% confidence), which argues that the high metallicities of stars with planets are not likely due to convective envelope "pollution." Our data also rule out a constant planet occurrence rate for [Fe/H]< 0, indicating that giant planets continue to become rarer at sub-Solar metallicities. We also find that planet occurrence increases with stellar mass (f \propto Mstar), characterized by a rise from 3.5% around M dwarfs (0.5 Msun) to 14% around A stars (2 Msun), at Solar metallicity. We argue that the correlation between stellar properties and giant planet occurrence is strong supporting evidence of the core accretion model of planet formation.Comment: Fixed minor typos, modified the last paragraph of Section

Herschel Observations of Debris Discs Orbiting Planet-hosting Subgiants

Debris discs are commonly detected orbiting main-sequence stars, yet little is known regarding their fate as the star evolves to become a giant. Recent observations of radial velocity detected planets orbiting giant stars highlight this population and its importance for probing, for example, the population of planetary systems orbiting intermediate mass stars. Our Herschel survey observed a subset of the Johnson et al program subgiants, finding that 4/36 exhibit excess emission thought to indicate debris, of which 3/19 are planet-hosting stars and 1/17 are stars with no current planet detections. Given the small numbers involved, there is no evidence that the disc detection rate around stars with planets is different to that around stars without planets. Our detections provide a clear indication that large quantities of dusty material can survive the stars' main-sequence lifetime and be detected on the subgiant branch, with important implications for the evolution of planetary systems and observations of polluted or dusty white dwarfs. Our detection rates also provide an important constraint that can be included in models of debris disc evolution.Comment: 12 pages, MNRAS, accepte