The Evolution of Overconfidence

Confidence is an essential ingredient of success in a wide range of domains ranging from job performance and mental health, to sports, business, and combat. Some authors have suggested that not just confidence but overconfidence-believing you are better than you are in reality-is advantageous because it serves to increase ambition, morale, resolve, persistence, or the credibility of bluffing, generating a self-fulfilling prophecy in which exaggerated confidence actually increases the probability of success. However, overconfidence also leads to faulty assessments, unrealistic expectations, and hazardous decisions, so it remains a puzzle how such a false belief could evolve or remain stable in a population of competing strategies that include accurate, unbiased beliefs. Here, we present an evolutionary model showing that, counter-intuitively, overconfidence maximizes individual fitness and populations will tend to become overconfident, as long as benefits from contested resources are sufficiently large compared to the cost of competition. In contrast, "rational" unbiased strategies are only stable under limited conditions. The fact that overconfident populations are evolutionarily stable in a wide range of environments may help to explain why overconfidence remains prevalent today, even if it contributes to hubris, market bubbles, financial collapses, policy failures, disasters, and costly wars.Comment: Supplementary Information include

Generalized strategies in the Minority Game

We show analytically how the fluctuations (i.e. standard deviation) in the Minority Game (MG) can be made to decrease below the random coin-toss limit if the agents use more general behavioral strategies. This suppression of the standard deviation results from a cancellation between the actions of a crowd, in which agents act collectively and make the same decision, and an anticrowd in which agents act collectively by making the opposite decision to the crowd.Comment: Revised manuscript: a few minor typos corrected. Results unaffecte

Mixed population Minority Game with generalized strategies

We present a quantitative theory, based on crowd effects, for the market volatility in a Minority Game played by a mixed population. Below a critical concentration of generalized strategy players, we find that the volatility in the crowded regime remains above the random coin-toss value regardless of the "temperature" controlling strategy use. Our theory yields good agreement with numerical simulations.Comment: Revtex file + 3 figure

Quantum Algorithm to Solve Satisfiability Problems

A new quantum algorithm is proposed to solve Satisfiability(SAT) problems by taking advantage of non-unitary transformation in ground state quantum computer. The energy gap scale of the ground state quantum computer is analyzed for 3-bit Exact Cover problems. The time cost of this algorithm on general SAT problems is discussed.Comment: 5 pages, 3 figure

Structural Properties and Relative Stability of (Meta)Stable Ordered, Partially-ordered and Disordered Al-Li Alloy Phases

We resolve issues that have plagued reliable prediction of relative phase stability for solid-solutions and compounds. Due to its commercially important phase diagram, we showcase Al-Li system because historically density-functional theory (DFT) results show large scatter and limited success in predicting the structural properties and stability of solid-solutions relative to ordered compounds. Using recent advances in an optimal basis-set representation of the topology of electronic charge density (and, hence, atomic size), we present DFT results that agree reasonably well with all known experimental data for the structural properties and formation energies of ordered, off-stoichiometric partially-ordered and disordered alloys, opening the way for reliable study in complex alloys.Comment: 7 pages, 2 figures, 2 Table

Universal and non-universal effective NN-body interactions for ultracold harmonically-trapped few-atom systems

We derive the ground-state energy for a small number of ultracold atoms in an isotropic harmonic trap using effective quantum field theory (EFT). Atoms are assumed to interact through pairwise energy-independent and energy-dependent delta-function potentials with strengths proportional to the scattering length $a$ and effective range volume $V$, respectively. The calculations are performed systematically up to order $l^{-4}$, where $l$ denotes the harmonic oscillator length. The effective three-body interaction contains a logarithmic divergence in the cutoff energy, giving rise to a non-universal three-body interaction in the EFT. Our EFT results are confirmed by nonperturbative numerical calculations for a Hamiltonian with finite-range two-body Gaussian interactions. For this model Hamiltonian, we explicitly calculate the non-universal effective three-body contribution to the energy.Comment: 7 pages, 4 figure

Blood volume changes

Analysis of radionuclide volume determinations made for the crewmembers of selected Gemini and Apollo missions showed that orbital spaceflight has an effect on red cell mass. Because the methods and the protocol developed for earlier flights were used for the crews of the three Skylab missions, direct comparisons are possible. After each Skylab mission, decreases were found in crewmembers' red cell masses. The mean red cell mass decrease of 11 percent or 232 milliliters was approximately equal to the 10 percent mean red cell mass decrease of the Apollo 14 to 17 crewmembers. The red cell mass drop was greatest and the postrecovery reticulocyte response least for crewmembers of the 28-day Skylab 2 mission. Analyses of data from the red cell mass determinations indicate that the red cell mass drops occurred in the first 30 days of flight and that a gradual recovery of the red cell mass deficits began approximately 60 days after launch. The beginning of red cell mass regeneration during the Skylab 4 flight may explain the higher postmission reticulocyte counts

Temperature Dependent Scattering Rates at the Fermi Surface of Optimally Doped Bi 2212

For optimally doped Bi 2212, scattering rates in the normal state are found to have a linear temperature dependence over most of the Fermi surface. In the immediate vicinity of the (1,0) point, the scattering rates are nearly constant in the normal state, consistent with models in which scattering at this point determines the c-axis transport. In the superconducting state, the scattering rates away from the nodal direction appear to level off and become temperature-independent.Comment: published version, 4 pages, 3 eps figures + 1 jpg figur