Hvor mye koster ukoordinert klimapolitikk? : To modeller – to svar

Scenarioer er det mest brukte verktøyet for å forstå hvordan verden kan gjennomføre en overgang til et lavutslippssamfunn. Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS) har gjort et utvalg av slike "klimascenarioer" tilgjengelige for allmennheten. Håpet er at disse scenarioene skal gjøre det enklere for sentralbanker, finanstilsyn og aktører i finansmarkedet å ha et felles utgangspunkt for diskusjon av konsekvensene av klimapolitikk. En innsikt fra slike scenarioer er at nødvendige tiltak blir dyrere hvis tiltakene ikke koordineres på tvers av land. Med ukoordinert politikk øker også usikkerheten om den økonomiske kostnaden betydelig. Det ser vi blant annet ved at ulike modeller gir veldig forskjellige svar på hvor høy karbonpris som skal til for å nå klimamålene. De mest pessimistiske framskrivningene innebærer et betydelig fall i samlet produksjon målt ved BNP.publishedVersio

Financial imbalances and medium-term growth-at-risk in Norway

We examine how measures of financial imbalances affect macroeconomic tail risks over the medium-term in Norway and in other advanced economies. We use a broad set of financial indicators to capture cyclical systemic risk in the financial system and different quantile regression models to characterise their effects on the medium-term growth distribution. We find that an increase in financial indicators is associated with both a more adverse prediction for growth-at-risk (5th percentile of growth distribution) and higher downside risks to growth (difference between the median and the 5th percentile of growth distribution). Among financial indicators, credit growth has the most significant effect on downside risks to growth. We also find that downside risks are higher under a fixed exchange rate regime. Using our estimates, we focus on two policy-relevant applications. First, we summarise how financial indicators and growth-at-risk have evolved over time in Norway and how this framework can be used to quantify and communicate risks to the economic outlook. Second, we show how this framework can be used to calibrate the severity of cyclical stress test scenarios.publishedVersio

Financial imbalances and medium-term growth-at-risk in Norway

We examine how measures of financial imbalances affect macroeconomic tail risks over the medium-term in Norway and in other advanced economies. We use a broad set of financial indicators to capture cyclical systemic risk in the financial system and different quantile regression models to characterise their effects on the medium-term growth distribution. We find that an increase in financial indicators is associated with both a more adverse prediction for growth-at-risk (5th percentile of growth distribution) and higher downside risks to growth (difference between the median and the 5th percentile of growth distribution). Among financial indicators, credit growth has the most significant effect on downside risks to growth. We also find that downside risks are higher under a fixed exchange rate regime. Using our estimates, we focus on two policy-relevant applications. First, we summarise how financial indicators and growth-at-risk have evolved over time in Norway and how this framework can be used to quantify and communicate risks to the economic outlook. Second, we show how this framework can be used to calibrate the severity of cyclical stress test scenarios