Projection Effects and Strategic Ambiguity in Electoral Competition

Theories from psychology suggest that voters' perceptions of political positions depend on their non-policy related attitudes towards the candidates. A voter who likes (dislikes) a candidate will perceive the candidate's position as closer to (further from) his own than it really is. This is called projection. If voters' perceptions are not counterfactual and voting is based on perceived policy positions then projection gives a generally liked candidate an incentive to be ambiguous. In this paper we construct and analyze a formal model to investigate under which conditions this incentive survives in the strategic setting of electoral competition, even if voters dislike ambiguity per se.electoral competition; ambiguity; voter perception; cognitive consistency; projection

Electoral Competition when Candidates are Better Informed than Voters

In this paper we study the functioning of representative democracy when politicians are better informed than the electorate about conditions relevant for policy choice. We consider a model with two states of the world. The distribution of voters' preferred policies shifts with the state. The two candidates are both completely office-motivated but differ in state-dependent quality. Voters have some information about the state but candidates are better informed. If voters' information is unknown to the candidates when they take positions and sufficiently accurate then candidates will, in refined equilibrium, reveal their information by converging to the most likely median. If voters' information is not sufficiently accurate then there is polarization and the candidates'information is not revealed to the voters. We also show that if voters'information is known to the candidates then they will never reveal their information to the voters. The candidates will either pander by converging on the median that is most likely given only the voters'information or be polarized. With respect to welfare, if voters are well informed then they all prefer that their information is unknown to the candidates. However, if voters are not well informed then it is the other way around, all voters prefer that their information is known by the candidates.electoral competition; uncertainty; information; candidate quality

Can Ambiguity in Electoral Competition be Explained by Projection Effects in Voters' Perceptions?

Studies in political science and psychology suggest that voters' perceptions of political positions depend on their personal views of the candidates. A voter who likes/dislikes a candidate will perceive his position as closer to/further from his own than it really is (projection). Clearly these effects should be most pronounced when candidate positions are ambiguous. Thus a generally well liked candidate will have an incentive to take an ambiguous position. In this paper we construct a simple model to see under which conditions this incentive survives in the strategic setting of electoral competition, even if voters dislike ambiguity per se.electoral competition; ambiguity; voter perception; cognitive balance; projection

Terrorism, Anti-Terrorism, and the Copycat Effect

In this paper we contribute to the study of how democracy works when politicians are better informed than the electorate about conditions relevant for policy choice. We do so by setting up and analyzing a game theoretic model of electoral competition. An important feature of the model is that candidate quality is state-dependent. Our main insight is that if the electorate is sufficiently well informed then there exists an equilibrium where the candidates' policy positions reveal their information and the policy outcome is the same as it would be if voters were fully informed (the median policy in the true state of the world).terrorist cells; optimal anti-terrorism; copycat effect; dynamic pattern of terrorism

Vole spatial distribution and dispersal in European organic and conventional farming systems

North European landscapes are highly dominated by agriculture, where small biotopes, e.g. meadows, uncultivated grassland, hedge rows, field boundaries, surroundings of water ponds, only comprise a low percentage. In recent years organic farming has expanded in acreage due to customers increased awareness regarding pesticide and fertilizer use and biodiversity conservation. However, organic farming has changed from an extensive production with small fields, low mechanical impact and high crop diversity towards larger fields, intensive mechanical treatment, lower weed densities and lower field diversity. Still, organic farms could play an important, role in the agricultural landscape as refuges for some small mammal species. We studied the responses of populations to habitat patches of different size and different surrounding management strategies (ecological and conventional farming). Studies were performed at two localities in Denmark, Kalø Estate in Eastern Jutland and the Bjerringbro area in Central Jutland. The sampling sites were represented by cultivated grassland habitat, small biotopes within cultivated fields and hedgerows between fields in rotation. Small mammal species assemblages were low in numbers in cultural farmland, and, on a property basis, not significantly different between organic and conventional farms. Very few species and individuals were present in the field matrix, and the small biotopes were by far the most important source of species richness. Species density was positively correlated with the size of the habitat, and, generally, more voles were found in organic habitat patches than in conventional ones. More field voles were found in organic grassland and more bank voles (Myodes glareolus) in organic hedge rows than in conventional ones. Telemetry studies of field voles showed low rates of dispersal and low colonization rates of the more or less isolated small biotopes at the time of year with no vegetation cover in the surrounding fields. We found no significant correlations between distance to nearest stepping stones/dispersal corridors and small mammal densities or species composition. In agricultural areas landscape structure influences the small mammal species living in this fragmented habitat matrix. The value of organic farms in respect to small mammal biodiversity depends mainly upon the number and area of small biotopes, and only to a minor degree upon the management of the fields. This is presumably related to a more dense and diverse vegetation cover, due to a lack of pesticide and fertilizer treatment in the organically managed small biotopes

On DP-Coloring of Digraphs

DP-coloring is a relatively new coloring concept by Dvo\v{r}\'ak and Postle and was introduced as an extension of list-colorings of (undirected) graphs. It transforms the problem of finding a list-coloring of a given graph $G$ with a list-assignment $L$ to finding an independent transversal in an auxiliary graph with vertex set $\{(v,c) ~|~ v \in V(G), c \in L(v)\}$. In this paper, we extend the definition of DP-colorings to digraphs using the approach from Neumann-Lara where a coloring of a digraph is a coloring of the vertices such that the digraph does not contain any monochromatic directed cycle. Furthermore, we prove a Brooks' type theorem regarding the DP-chromatic number, which extends various results on the (list-)chromatic number of digraphs.Comment: 23 pages, 6 figure