Evaluating machine learning techniques for predicting power spectra from reionization simulations

Upcoming experiments such as the SKA will provide huge quantities of data. Fast modelling of the high-redshift 21cm signal will be crucial for efficiently comparing these data sets with theory. The most detailed theoretical predictions currently come from numerical simulations and from faster but less accurate semi-numerical simulations. Recently, machine learning techniques have been proposed to emulate the behaviour of these semi-numerical simulations with drastically reduced time and computing cost. We compare the viability of five such machine learning techniques for emulating the 21cm power spectrum of the publicly-available code SimFast21. Our best emulator is a multilayer perceptron with three hidden layers, reproducing SimFast21 power spectra $10^8$ times faster than the simulation with 4% mean squared error averaged across all redshifts and input parameters. The other techniques (interpolation, Gaussian processes regression, and support vector machine) have slower prediction times and worse prediction accuracy than the multilayer perceptron. All our emulators can make predictions at any redshift and scale, which gives more flexible predictions but results in significantly worse prediction accuracy at lower redshifts. We then present a proof-of-concept technique for mapping between two different simulations, exploiting our best emulator's fast prediction speed. We demonstrate this technique to find a mapping between SimFast21 and another publicly-available code 21cmFAST. We observe a noticeable offset between the simulations for some regions of the input space. Such techniques could potentially be used as a bridge between fast semi-numerical simulations and accurate numerical radiative transfer simulations

Seeking the Real Adam Smith and Milton Friedman

In this paper we will analyze the relationship between free market principles and ethics through an exploration of how too many business managers often approach the ideas of Adam Smith and Milton Friedman. In doing so, we aim to provide a thoughtful foundation for future discussions of how we ought to navigate this intersection. We briefly examine questions such as: What is the relationship between the “best” economy in terms of efficiency and the common good for society? Is pursuing one’s individual economic advantage the same as promoting the general interest? As we analyze and discuss these questions, specifically in the context of Smith and Friedman, we also make some alternative normative assertions, grounded in social welfare, about adopting a broader societal perspective for the purpose of business

Integration of decision support systems to improve decision support performance

Decision support system (DSS) is a well-established research and development area. Traditional isolated, stand-alone DSS has been recently facing new challenges. In order to improve the performance of DSS to meet the challenges, research has been actively carried out to develop integrated decision support systems (IDSS). This paper reviews the current research efforts with regard to the development of IDSS. The focus of the paper is on the integration aspect for IDSS through multiple perspectives, and the technologies that support this integration. More than 100 papers and software systems are discussed. Current research efforts and the development status of IDSS are explained, compared and classified. In addition, future trends and challenges in integration are outlined. The paper concludes that by addressing integration, better support will be provided to decision makers, with the expectation of both better decisions and improved decision making processes

Capture the fracture: a best practice framework and global campaign to break the fragility fracture cycle

Summary The International Osteoporosis Foundation (IOF) Capture the Fracture Campaign aims to support implementation of Fracture Liaison Services (FLS) throughout the world. Introduction FLS have been shown to close the ubiquitous secondary fracture prevention care gap, ensuring that fragility fracture sufferers receive appropriate assessment and intervention to reduce future fracture risk. Methods Capture the Fracture has developed internationally endorsed standards for best practice, will facilitate change at the national level to drive adoption of FLS and increase awareness of the challenges and opportunities presented by secondary fracture prevention to key stakeholders. The Best Practice Framework (BPF) sets an international benchmark for FLS, which defines essential and aspirational elements of service delivery. Results The BPF has been reviewed by leading experts from many countries and subject to beta-testing to ensure that it is internationally relevant and fit-for-purpose. The BPF will also serve as a measurement tool for IOF to award ‘Capture the Fracture Best Practice Recognition’ to celebrate successful FLS worldwide and drive service development in areas of unmet need. The Capture the Fracture website will provide a suite of resources related to FLS and secondary fracture prevention, which will be updated as new materials become available. A mentoring programme will enable those in the early stages of development of FLS to learn from colleagues elsewhere that have achieved Best Practice Recognition. A grant programme is in development to aid clinical systems which require financial assistance to establish FLS in their localities. Conclusion Nearly half a billion people will reach retirement age during the next 20 years. IOF has developed Capture the Fracture because this is the single most important thing that can be done to directly improve patient care, of both women and men, and reduce the spiralling fracture-related care costs worldwide.</p

Liquid-gas phase transition in nuclear multifragmentation

The equation of state of nuclear matter suggests that at suitable beam energies the disassembling hot system formed in heavy ion collisions will pass through a liquid-gas coexistence region. Searching for the signatures of the phase transition has been a very important focal point of experimental endeavours in heavy ion collisions, in the last fifteen years. Simultaneously theoretical models have been developed to provide information about the equation of state and reaction mechanisms consistent with the experimental observables. This article is a review of this endeavour.Comment: 63 pages, 27 figures, submitted to Adv. Nucl. Phys. Some typos corrected, minor text change

A Prospective Three-Year Cohort Study of the Epidemiology and Virology of Acute Respiratory Infections of Children in Rural India

Acute respiratory infection (ARI) is a major killer of children in developing countries. Although the frequency of ARI is similar in both developed and developing countries, mortality due to ARI is 10-50 times higher in developing countries. Viruses are common causes of ARI among such children, yet the disease burden of these infections in rural communities is unknown.A prospective longitudinal study was carried out in children enrolled from two rural Indian villages at birth and followed weekly for the development of ARI, classified as upper respiratory infection, acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI), or severe ALRI. Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), influenza, parainfluenza viruses and adenoviruses in nasopharyngeal aspirates were detected by direct fluorescent antibody testing (DFA) and, in addition, centrifugation enhanced culture for RSV was done. 281 infants enrolled in 39 months and followed until 42 months. During 440 child years of follow-up there were 1307 ARIs, including 236 ALRIs and 19 severe ALRIs. Virus specific incidence rates per 1000 child years for RSV were total ARI 234, ALRI 39, and severe ALRI 9; for influenza A total ARI 141, ALRI 39; for INF B total ARI 37; for PIV1 total ARI 23, for PIV2 total ARI 28, ALRI 5; for parainfluenza virus 3 total ARI 229, ALRI 48, and severe ALRI 5 and for adenovirus total ARI 18, ALRI 5. Repeat infections with RSV were seen in 18 children.RSV, influenza A and parainfluenza virus 3 were important causes of ARI among children in rural communities in India. These data will be useful for vaccine design, development and implementation purposes

Predator-Induced Demographic Shifts in Coral Reef Fish Assemblages

In recent years, it has become apparent that human impacts have altered community structure in coastal and marine ecosystems worldwide. Of these, fishing is one of the most pervasive, and a growing body of work suggests that fishing can have strong effects on the ecology of target species, especially top predators. However, the effects of removing top predators on lower trophic groups of prey fishes are less clear, particularly in highly diverse and trophically complex coral reef ecosystems. We examined patterns of abundance, size structure, and age-based demography through surveys and collection-based studies of five fish species from a variety of trophic levels at Kiritimati and Palmyra, two nearby atolls in the Northern Line Islands. These islands have similar biogeography and oceanography, and yet Kiritimati has ∼10,000 people with extensive local fishing while Palmyra is a US National Wildlife Refuge with no permanent human population, no fishing, and an intact predator fauna. Surveys indicated that top predators were relatively larger and more abundant at unfished Palmyra, while prey functional groups were relatively smaller but showed no clear trends in abundance as would be expected from classic trophic cascades. Through detailed analyses of focal species, we found that size and longevity of a top predator were lower at fished Kiritimati than at unfished Palmyra. Demographic patterns also shifted dramatically for 4 of 5 fish species in lower trophic groups, opposite in direction to the top predator, including decreases in average size and longevity at Palmyra relative to Kiritimati. Overall, these results suggest that fishing may alter community structure in complex and non-intuitive ways, and that indirect demographic effects should be considered more broadly in ecosystem-based management

Utilisation of an operative difficulty grading scale for laparoscopic cholecystectomy

Background A reliable system for grading operative difficulty of laparoscopic cholecystectomy would standardise description of findings and reporting of outcomes. The aim of this study was to validate a difficulty grading system (Nassar scale), testing its applicability and consistency in two large prospective datasets. Methods Patient and disease-related variables and 30-day outcomes were identified in two prospective cholecystectomy databases: the multi-centre prospective cohort of 8820 patients from the recent CholeS Study and the single-surgeon series containing 4089 patients. Operative data and patient outcomes were correlated with Nassar operative difficultly scale, using Kendall’s tau for dichotomous variables, or Jonckheere–Terpstra tests for continuous variables. A ROC curve analysis was performed, to quantify the predictive accuracy of the scale for each outcome, with continuous outcomes dichotomised, prior to analysis. Results A higher operative difficulty grade was consistently associated with worse outcomes for the patients in both the reference and CholeS cohorts. The median length of stay increased from 0 to 4 days, and the 30-day complication rate from 7.6 to 24.4% as the difficulty grade increased from 1 to 4/5 (both p < 0.001). In the CholeS cohort, a higher difficulty grade was found to be most strongly associated with conversion to open and 30-day mortality (AUROC = 0.903, 0.822, respectively). On multivariable analysis, the Nassar operative difficultly scale was found to be a significant independent predictor of operative duration, conversion to open surgery, 30-day complications and 30-day reintervention (all p < 0.001). Conclusion We have shown that an operative difficulty scale can standardise the description of operative findings by multiple grades of surgeons to facilitate audit, training assessment and research. It provides a tool for reporting operative findings, disease severity and technical difficulty and can be utilised in future research to reliably compare outcomes according to case mix and intra-operative difficulty

A Review of Sociological Issues in Fire Safety Regulation

This paper presents an overview of contemporary sociological issues in fire safety. The most obviously social aspects of fire safety—those that relate to the socioeconomic distribution of fire casualties and damage—are discussed first. The means that society uses to mitigate fire risks through regulation are treated next; focusing on the shift towards fire engineered solutions and the particular challenges this poses for the social distribution and communication of fire safety knowledge and expertise. Finally, the social construction of fire safety knowledge is discussed, raising questions about whether the confidence in the application of this knowledge by the full range of participants in the fire safety design and approvals process is always justified, given the specific assumptions involved in both the production of the knowledge and its extension to applications significantly removed from the original knowledge production; and the requisite competence that is therefore needed to apply this knowledge. The overarching objective is to argue that the fire safety professions ought to be more reflexive and informed about the nature of the knowledge and expertise that they develop and apply, and to suggest that fire safety scientists and engineers ought to actively collaborate with social scientists in research designed to study the way people interact with fire safety technology

Volume, patterns, and types of sedentary behavior and cardio-metabolic health in children and adolescents: a cross-sectional study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Cardio-metabolic risk factors are becoming more prevalent in children and adolescents. A lack of moderate-to-vigorous intensity physical activity (MVPA) is an established determinant of cardio-metabolic risk factors in children and adolescents. Less is known about the relationship between sedentary behavior and cardio-metabolic health. Therefore, the objective was to examine the independent associations between volume, patterns, and types of sedentary behavior with cardio-metabolic risk factors among children and adolescents.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The results are based on 2527 children and adolescents (6-19 years old) from the 2003/04 and 2005/06 National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (NHANES). A cardio-metabolic risk score (CRS) was calculated based on age- and sex-adjusted waist circumference, systolic blood pressure, non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and C-reactive protein values. Volume and patterns of sedentary behavior and moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) were measured objectively using accelerometers. Types of sedentary behavior were measured by questionnaire. A series of logistic regression models were used to examine associations.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Volume and patterns of sedentary behavior were not predictors of high CRS after adjusting for MVPA and other confounders (P > 0.1). For types of sedentary behavior, high TV use, but not high computer use, was a predictor of high CRS after adjustment for MVPA and other confounders. Children and adolescents who watched ≥4 hours per day of TV were 2.53 (95% confidence interval: 1.45-4.42) times more likely to have high CRS than those who watched <1 hour per day. MVPA predicted high CRS after adjusting for all sedentary behavior measures and other confounders. After adjustment for waist circumference, MVPA also predicted high non-obesity CRS; however, the same relationship was not seen with TV use.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>No association was observed between overall volume and patterns of sedentary behavior with cardio-metabolic risk factors in this large sample of children and adolescents. Conversely, high TV use and low MVPA were independently associated with cardio-metabolic risk factors. However, the association between high TV use and clustered cardio-metabolic risk factors appears to be mediated or confounded by obesity. Thus, TV and MVPA appear to be two separate behaviors that need to be targeted with different interventions and policies.</p