A comparative study of game theoretic and evolutionary models for software agents

Most of the existing work in the study of bargaining behaviour uses techniques from game theory. Game theoretic models for bargaining assume that players are perfectly rational and that this rationality in common knowledge. However, the perfect rationality assumption does not hold for real-life bargaining scenarios with humans as players, since results from experimental economics show that humans find their way to the best strategy through trial and error, and not typically by means of rational deliberation. Such players are said to be boundedly rational. In playing a game against an opponent with bounded rationality, the most effective strategy of a player is not the equilibrium strategy but the one that is the best reply to the opponent's strategy. The evolutionary model provides a means for studying the bargaining behaviour of boundedly rational players. This paper provides a comprehensive comparison of the game theoretic and evolutionary approaches to bargaining by examining their assumptions, goals, and limitations. We then study the implications of these differences from the perspective of the software agent developer

Efficient state-space inference of periodic latent force models

Latent force models (LFM) are principled approaches to incorporating solutions to differen-tial equations within non-parametric inference methods. Unfortunately, the developmentand application of LFMs can be inhibited by their computational cost, especially whenclosed-form solutions for the LFM are unavailable, as is the case in many real world prob-lems where these latent forces exhibit periodic behaviour. Given this, we develop a newsparse representation of LFMs which considerably improves their computational efficiency,as well as broadening their applicability, in a principled way, to domains with periodic ornear periodic latent forces. Our approach uses a linear basis model to approximate onegenerative model for each periodic force. We assume that the latent forces are generatedfrom Gaussian process priors and develop a linear basis model which fully expresses thesepriors. We apply our approach to model the thermal dynamics of domestic buildings andshow that it is effective at predicting day-ahead temperatures within the homes. We alsoapply our approach within queueing theory in which quasi-periodic arrival rates are mod-elled as latent forces. In both cases, we demonstrate that our approach can be implemented efficiently using state-space methods which encode the linear dynamic systems via LFMs.Further, we show that state estimates obtained using periodic latent force models can re-duce the root mean squared error to 17% of that from non-periodic models and 27% of thenearest rival approach which is the resonator model (S ̈arkk ̈a et al., 2012; Hartikainen et al.,2012.

Alaska Native Technical Assistance and Resource Center: Final Report

Too often, federal and state justice programs directed at rural, predominately Alaska Native villages do not sufficiently coordinate planning and funding, and are not tailored to fit local cultures and needs. The language and institutional contexts of granting agencies and requests for proposals for grants frame justice problems and their solutions in ways that may or may not relate to the experiences of Alaska Native villages. The Alaska Native Technical Resource Center (ANTARC) was designed as a three-year project to improve village capacity to identify problems and educate the university and granting agencies about the nature of their justice problems and the resources needed to implement solutions. The initial group involved the Justice Center and four rural communities — Gulkana, Kotlik, Wainwright, and Yakutat — with representatives from the communities chosen by village leaders. This report examines ANTARC's evolution, considers its implementation, evaluates the results, and presents recommendations for promoting effective change in Alaska Native villages.Bureau of Justice Assistance, United States Department of Justice Award No. 1999-LB-VX-002Introduction / The Evolution of Antarc / Structure of the Project / Implementation / Evaluating Results / Concluding Recommendations / References / Appendix 1: Proceedings of the March 1999 Antarc Workshop / Appendix 2: Proceedings of the November 1999 Antarc Workshop / Appendix 3: Capra Training Materials / Appendix 4: Evaluation Training Workshop Material

Intrusiveness, Trust and Argumentation: Using Automated Negotiation to Inhibit the Transmission of Disruptive Information

The question of how to promote the growth and diffusion of information has been extensively addressed by a wide research community. A common assumption underpinning most studies is that the information to be transmitted is useful and of high quality. In this paper, we endorse a complementary perspective. We investigate how the growth and diffusion of high quality information can be managed and maximized by preventing, dampening and minimizing the diffusion of low quality, unwanted information. To this end, we focus on the conflict between pervasive computing environments and the joint activities undertaken in parallel local social contexts. When technologies for distributed activities (e.g. mobile technology) develop, both artifacts and services that enable people to participate in non-local contexts are likely to intrude on local situations. As a mechanism for minimizing the intrusion of the technology, we develop a computational model of argumentation-based negotiation among autonomous agents. A key component in the model is played by trust: what arguments are used and how they are evaluated depend on how trustworthy the agents judge one another. To gain an insight into the implications of the model, we conduct a number of virtual experiments. Results enable us to explore how intrusiveness is affected by trust, the negotiation network and the agents' abilities of conducting argumentation

An anytime approximation method for the inverse Shapley value problem

Coalition formation is the process of bringing together two or more agents so as to achieve goals that individuals on their own cannot, or to achieve them more efficiently. Typically, in such situations, the agents have conflicting preferences over the set of possible joint goals. Thus, before the agents realize the benefits of cooperation, they must find a way of resolving these conflicts and reaching a consensus. In this context, cooperative game theory offers the voting game as a mechanism for agents to reach a consensus. It also offers the Shapley value as a way of measuring the influence or power a player has in determining the outcome of a voting game. Given this, the designer of a voting game wants to construct a game such that a players Shapley value is equal to some desired value. This is called the inverse Shapley value problem. Solving this problem is necessary, for instance, to ensure fairness in the players voting powers. However, from a computational perspective, finding a players Shapley value for a given game is #p-complete. Consequently, the problem of verifying that a voting game does indeed yield the required powers to the agents is also #P-complete. Therefore, in order to overcome this problem we present a computationally efficient approximation algorithm for solving the inverse problem. This method is based on the technique of successive approximations; it starts with some initial approximate solution and iteratively updates it such that after each iteration, the approximate gets closer to the required solution. This is an anytime algorithm and has time complexity polynomial in the number of players. We also analyze the performance of this method in terms of its approximation error and the rate of convergence of an initial solution to the required one. Specifically, we show that the former decreases after each iteration, and that the latter increases with the number of players and also with the initial approximation error. Copyright © 2008, International Foundation for Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems (www.ifaarnas.org). All rights reserved

The Shell Model, the Renormalization Group and the Two-Body Interaction

The no-core shell model and the effective interaction $V_{{\rm low} k}$ can both be derived using the Lee-Suzuki projection operator formalism. The main difference between the two is the choice of basis states that define the model space. The effective interaction $V_{{\rm low} k}$ can also be derived using the renormalization group. That renormalization group derivation can be extended in a straight forward manner to also include the no-core shell model. In the nuclear matter limit the no-core shell model effective interaction in the two-body approximation reduces identically to $V_{{\rm low} k}$. The same considerations apply to the Bloch-Horowitz version of the shell model and the renormalization group treatment of two-body scattering by Birse, McGovern and Richardson

Designing an Adaptive Interface: Using Eye Tracking to Classify How Information Usage Changes Over Time in Partially Automated Vehicles

While partially automated vehicles can provide a range of benefits, they also bring about new Human Machine Interface (HMI) challenges around ensuring the driver remains alert and is able to take control of the vehicle when required. While humans are poor monitors of automated processes, specifically during ‘steady state’ operation, presenting the appropriate information to the driver can help. But to date, interfaces of partially automated vehicles have shown evidence of causing cognitive overload. Adaptive HMIs that automatically change the information presented (for example, based on workload, time or physiologically), have been previously proposed as a solution, but little is known about how information should adapt during steady-state driving. This study aimed to classify information usage based on driver experience to inform the design of a future adaptive HMI in partially automated vehicles. The unique feature of this study over existing literature is that each participant attended for five consecutive days; enabling a first look at how information usage changes with increasing familiarity and providing a methodological contribution to future HMI user trial study design. Seventeen participants experienced a steady-state automated driving simulation for twenty-six minutes per day in a driving simulator, replicating a regularly driven route, such as a work commute. Nine information icons, representative of future partially automated vehicle HMIs, were displayed on a tablet and eye tracking was used to record the information that the participants fixated on. The results found that information usage did change with increased exposure, with significant differences in what information participants looked at between the first and last trial days. With increasing experience, participants tended to view information as confirming technical competence rather than the future state of the vehicle. On this basis, interface design recommendations are made, particularly around the design of adaptive interfaces for future partially automated vehicles