Partners or predators? : the impact of regional trade liberalization on Indonesia

The authors empirically assess regional integration and liberalization scenarios impact on Indonesia and other Pacific Rim economies, including the complete Uruguay Round, further global liberalization and the creation of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) or Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) free trade areas. They consider how major international exchange rate realignments affect the world trade pattern, and Indonesia in particular. The analysis uses a multi-country, computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to quantify the trade liberalization impact on countries, sectors, and factors. The extended APEC-CGE model consists of nine linked country models: Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore (together), the Philippines, Thailand, China (including Hong Kong), Korea and Taiwan, Japan, the United States and the European Union. Each country model is linked through explicit bilateral trade flows modeling for each traded sector. The empirical results lead to several conclusions: a) eliminating tariff and non tariff barriers in industrial countries (especially the Multifibre Agreement) gives Asian developing countries the opportunity to expand exports and achieve productivity gains; b) creation of an APEC free trade area gives participants significant benefits, with little effect on nonmembers while creation of an ASEAN free trade area gives its members little benefit, thus ASEAN countries should work toward more liberalization under GATT or hasten the APEC free trade area creation; c) all economies gain the most from further multilateral liberalization; and d) major exchange rate realignments significantly affect bilateral trade balances and world trade volume and direction. However, they have less effect than trade liberalization on the internal production and trade structure. Sectoral protection andsubsidy rates vary greatly and their elimination yields significant efficiency gains. Changes in exchange rates have less effect.Trade Policy,Environmental Economics&Policies,Payment Systems&Infrastructure,Economic Theory&Research,Transport and Trade Logistics,TF054105-DONOR FUNDED OPERATION ADMINISTRATION FEE INCOME AND EXPENSE ACCOUNT,Economic Theory&Research,Environmental Economics&Policies,Trade and Regional Integration,Trade Policy

After the negotiations: assessing the impact of free trade agreements in Southern Africa

After protracted and difficult negotiations, agreement was recently reached on the dimensions of a South African-EU free trade deal. Because of South Africa's prominence in the sub-region, implementation of this agreement will have an impact not only on South Africa, but on all the SADC economies. This paper traces how this impact may be felt over time, using a multi-region model constructed to focus on the determination of sectoral and geographic trade patterns. By separatelymodeling South Africa and the rest of southern Africa, the model can be used to evaluate how alternative SADC regional trade strategies can influence how the EU deal affects the region's economies; by distinguishing among major trading partners (EU, North America, East Asia), the simulations can help illuminate how the trade deal will likely affect current trade patterns The empirical results lead to a number of conclusions: (1) trade creation dominates trade diversion for the region under all FTA arrangements; (2) the rest of southern Africa benefits from an FTA between the EU and South Africa — the recently signed bilateral agreement is not a “beggar thy neighbor” policy; (3) the rest of southern Africa gains more from zero-tariff access to EU markets than from a partial (50 percent) reduction in global tariffs; and (4) the South African economy is not large enough to serve as a growth pole for the region. Access to EU markets provides substantially bigger gains for the rest of southern Africa than does access to South Africa.Trade policy Africa., Free trade., South Africa.,

Audible Inhalation as a Practice for Mitigating Systemic Turn-Taking Troubles: A Conjecture

Extending Jefferson’s analysis of the limited utility of turn-constructional-unit (TCU)-initial particles in managing overlapping talk, this article limits itself to a similar turn-taking context/position in which current speakers bring TCUs to places of possible completion when it is relevant for next speakers to take a turn of talk. This article examines situations in which current speakers continue to audibly inhale in the transition space, arguing that inhalations (a) are pre-beginning actions; (b) bestow a weaker right to speak next than does talk; (c) are not accountable for obscuring next speakers’ talk (if it eventuates); (d) allow for beginning TCUs while monitoring for next speakers’ talk, thereby allowing inhalers to proceed contingently based on next speakers’ unfolding conduct; and (e) are used to mitigate the systemic turn-taking troubles of “no person speaking at a time” and “more than one person speaking at a time.” Data are videotapes of mundane, dyadic, American English conversation

Policy lessons from a simple open - economy model

The authors show how two-sector models can be used to derive policy lessons about adjustment in developing economies. In the past two decades, changes in the external environment and in economic policies have been the key factors in the performance of developing economies. By and large the shocks have involved the external sector: terms-of-trade shocks or cutbacks in foreign capital. The policy responses most commonly proposed have targeted the external sector: depreciating the real exchange rate or reducing distortionary taxes to make the economy more competitive. The authors provide a starting point for analyzing the relation between external shocks and policy responses. Starting from a small, one-country, two-sector, three-good (1-2-3) model, the authors outline how the effects of a foreign capital inflow and terms-of-trade shock can be analyzed. They derive the assumptions underlying the conventional policy recommendation of real exchange rate depreciation in response to adverse shocks. The implications of such trade and fiscal policy instruments as export subsidies, import tariffs, and domestic indirect taxes can also be studied in this framework. The authors show that the standard advice to depreciate the real exchange rate in the wake of an adverse terms-of-trade shock rests on the condition that the income effect of the external shock dominates its substitution effect. But, depending on the characteristics of the economy (for example, the trade elasticities), policy results may run counter to received wisdom. For example, when the substitution effect ofan adverse external shock dominates, real depreciation is inappropriate. An infusion of foreign capital does not necessarily benefit the nontradable sector, as the results of"Dutch disease"models suggest (for example, in the extreme case of nearly infinite substitution elasticity between imports and domestic goods). When import tariffs are significant sources of public revenue, potential revenue losses from tariff cuts must be offset by other revenue sources to maintain the external current account balance. The paper shows a simple way to calculate the necessary tax adjustment. A major advantage of small models is their simplicity. The example in this paper can be solved analytically - either graphically or algebraically. It also can be solved numerically, using such widely available PC-based spreadsheet programs as Excel. The numerical implementation involves only modest data requirements. The data that governments normally release on national income, fiscal, and balance of payments accounts are sufficient.Environmental Economics&Policies,Economic Theory&Research,Economic Stabilization,TF054105-DONOR FUNDED OPERATION ADMINISTRATION FEE INCOME AND EXPENSE ACCOUNT,Markets and Market Access

Linking Snake Behavior to Nest Predation in a Midwestern Bird Community

Nest predators can adversely affect the viability of songbird populations, and their impact is exacerbated in fragmented habitats. Despite substantial research on this predator-prey interaction, however, almost all of the focus has been on the birds rather than their nest predators, thereby limiting our understanding of the factors that bring predators and nests into contact. We used radiotelemetry to document the activity of two snake species (rat snakes, Elaphe obsoleta; racers, Coluber constrictor) known to prey on nests in Midwestern bird communities and simultaneously monitored 300 songbird nests and tested the hypothesis that predation risk should increase for nests when snakes were more active and in edge habitat preferred by both snake species. Predation risk increased when rat snakes were more active, for all nests combined and for two of the six bird species for which we had sufficient nests to allow separate analyses. This result is consistent with rat snakes being more important nest predators than racers. We found no evidence, however, that nests closer to forest edges were at greater risk. These results are generally consistent with the one previous study that investigated rat snakes and nest predation simultaneously. The seemingly paradoxical failure to find higher predation risk in the snakes\u27 preferred habitat (i.e., edge) might be explained by the snakes using edges at least in part for non-foraging activities. We propose that higher nest predation in fragmented habitats (at least that attributable to snakes) results indirectly from edges promoting larger snake populations, rather than from edges directly increasing the risk of nest predation by snakes. If so, the notion of edges per se functioning as ecological traps merits further study

Results of Web-Scale Discovery: Data, Discussions, and Decisions

A library with the best and most credible resources available is of little value if its patrons do not find the resources.Web-scale discovery products were created to provide a search mechanism that library patrons will actually use, and which will yield relevant results even for the most inexperienced of searchers. An overview of one such product, Summon, is presented by the company’s product manager and by a librarian who helped to implement the product for his library

Regular black holes in an asymptotically de Sitter universe

A regular solution of the system of coupled equations of the nonlinear electrodynamics and gravity describing static and spherically-symmetric black holes in an asymptotically de Sitter universe is constructed and analyzed. Special emphasis is put on the degenerate configurations (when at least two horizons coincide) and their near horizon geometry. It is explicitly demonstrated that approximating the metric potentials in the region between the horizons by simple functions and making use of a limiting procedure one obtains the solutions constructed from maximally symmetric subspaces with different absolute values of radii. Topologically they are $AdS_{2}\times S^{2}$ for the cold black hole, $dS_{2}\times S^{2}$ when the event and cosmological horizon coincide, and the Pleba\'nski- Hacyan solution for the ultraextremal black hole. A physically interesting solution describing the lukewarm black holes is briefly analyze