Gentrification and Displacement in the San Francisco Bay Area: A Comparison of Measurement Approaches.

Gentrification may play an important role in influencing health outcomes, but few studies have examined these associations. One major barrier to producing empirical evidence to establish this link is that there is little consensus on how to measure gentrification. To address this barrier, we compared three gentrification classification methodologies in relation to their ability to identify neighborhood gentrification in nine San Francisco Bay Area counties: the Freeman method, the Landis method, and the Urban Displacement Project (UDP) Regional Early Warning System. In the 1580 census tracts, 43% of the population had a bachelor's degree or higher. The average median household income was $79,671 in 2013. A comparison of gentrification methodologies revealed that the Landis and Freeman methodologies characterized the vast majority of census tracts as stable, and only 5.2% and 6.1% of tracts as gentrifying. UDP characterized 46.7% of tracts at risk, undergoing, or experiencing advanced stages of gentrification and displacement. There was substantial variation in the geographic location of tracts identified as gentrifying across methods. Given the variation in characterizations of gentrification across measures, studies evaluating associations between gentrification and health should consider using multiple measures of gentrification to examine the robustness of the study findings across measures

Pre-incarceration police harassment, drug addiction and HIV risk behaviours among prisoners in Kyrgyzstan and Azerbaijan: results from a nationally representative cross-sectional study.

INTRODUCTION: The expanding HIV epidemic in Azerbaijan and Kyrgyzstan is concentrated among people who inject drugs (PWID), who comprise a third of prisoners there. Detention of PWID is common but its impact on health has not been previously studied in the region. We aimed to understand the relationship between official and unofficial (police harassment) detention of PWID and HIV risk behaviours. METHODS: In a nationally representative cross-sectional study, soon-to-be released prisoners in Kyrgyzstan (N=368) and Azerbaijan (N=510) completed standardized health assessment surveys. After identifying correlated variables through bivariate testing, we built multi-group path models with pre-incarceration official and unofficial detention as exogenous variables and pre-incarceration composite HIV risk as an endogenous variable, controlling for potential confounders and estimating indirect effects. RESULTS: Overall, 463 (51%) prisoners reported at least one detention in the year before incarceration with an average of 1.3 detentions in that period. Unofficial detentions (13%) were less common than official detentions (41%). Optimal model fit was achieved (X (2)=5.83, p=0.44; Goodness of Fit Index (GFI) GFI=0.99; Comparative Fit Index (CFI) CFI=1.00; Root Mean Square Error of Approximation (RMSEA) RMSEA=0.00; PCLOSE=0.98) when unofficial detention had an indirect effect on HIV risk, mediated by drug addiction severity, with more detentions associated with higher addiction severity, which in turn correlated with increased HIV risk. The final model explained 35% of the variance in the outcome. The effect was maintained for both countries, but stronger for Kyrgyzstan. The model also holds for Kyrgyzstan using unique data on within-prison drug injection as the outcome, which was frequent in prisoners there. CONCLUSIONS: Detention by police is a strong correlate of addiction severity, which mediates its effect on HIV risk behaviour. This pattern suggests that police may target drug users and that such harassment may result in an increase in HIV risk-taking behaviours, primarily because of the continued drug use within prisons. These findings highlight the important negative role that police play in the HIV epidemic response and point to the urgent need for interventions to reduce police harassment, in parallel with interventions to reduce HIV transmission within and outside of prison

Exoplanet Diversity in the Era of Space-based Direct Imaging Missions

This whitepaper discusses the diversity of exoplanets that could be detected by future observations, so that comparative exoplanetology can be performed in the upcoming era of large space-based flagship missions. The primary focus will be on characterizing Earth-like worlds around Sun-like stars. However, we will also be able to characterize companion planets in the system simultaneously. This will not only provide a contextual picture with regards to our Solar system, but also presents a unique opportunity to observe size dependent planetary atmospheres at different orbital distances. We propose a preliminary scheme based on chemical behavior of gases and condensates in a planet's atmosphere that classifies them with respect to planetary radius and incident stellar flux.Comment: A white paper submitted to the National Academy of Sciences Exoplanet Science Strateg

Pre-incarceration police harassment, drug addiction and HIV risk behaviours among prisoners in Kyrgyzstan and Azerbaijan: results from a nationally representative cross-sectional study

Introduction: The expanding HIV epidemic in Azerbaijan and Kyrgyzstan is concentrated among people who inject drugs (PWID), who comprise a third of prisoners there. Detention of PWID is common but its impact on health has not been previously studied in the region. We aimed to understand the relationship between official and unofficial (police harassment) detention of PWID and HIV risk behaviours. Methods: In a nationally representative cross-sectional study, soon-to-be released prisoners in Kyrgyzstan (N=368) and Azerbaijan (N=510) completed standardized health assessment surveys. After identifying correlated variables through bivariate testing, we built multi-group path models with pre-incarceration official and unofficial detention as exogenous variables and pre-incarceration composite HIV risk as an endogenous variable, controlling for potential confounders and estimating indirect effects. Results: Overall, 463 (51%) prisoners reported at least one detention in the year before incarceration with an average of 1.3 detentions in that period. Unofficial detentions (13%) were less common than official detentions (41%). Optimal model fit was achieved (X2=5.83, p=0.44; Goodness of Fit Index (GFI) GFI=0.99; Comparative Fit Index (CFI) CFI=1.00; Root Mean Square Error of Approximation (RMSEA) RMSEA=0.00; PCLOSE=0.98) when unofficial detention had an indirect effect on HIV risk, mediated by drug addiction severity, with more detentions associated with higher addiction severity, which in turn correlated with increased HIV risk. The final model explained 35% of the variance in the outcome. The effect was maintained for both countries, but stronger for Kyrgyzstan. The model also holds for Kyrgyzstan using unique data on within-prison drug injection as the outcome, which was frequent in prisoners there. Conclusions: Detention by police is a strong correlate of addiction severity, which mediates its effect on HIV risk behaviour. This pattern suggests that police may target drug users and that such harassment may result in an increase in HIV risk-taking behaviours, primarily because of the continued drug use within prisons. These findings highlight the important negative role that police play in the HIV epidemic response and point to the urgent need for interventions to reduce police harassment, in parallel with interventions to reduce HIV transmission within and outside of prison

Neptune Odyssey: A Flagship Concept for the Exploration of the Neptune–Triton System

The Neptune Odyssey mission concept is a Flagship-class orbiter and atmospheric probe to the Neptune-Triton system. This bold mission of exploration would orbit an ice-giant planet to study the planet, its rings, small satellites, space environment, and the planet-sized moon Triton. Triton is a captured dwarf planet from the Kuiper Belt, twin of Pluto, and likely ocean world. Odyssey addresses Neptune system-level science, with equal priorities placed on Neptune, its rings, moons, space environment, and Triton. Between Uranus and Neptune, the latter is unique in providing simultaneous access to both an ice giant and a Kuiper Belt dwarf planet. The spacecraft - in a class equivalent to the NASA/ESA/ASI Cassini spacecraft - would launch by 2031 on a Space Launch System or equivalent launch vehicle and utilize a Jupiter gravity assist for a 12 yr cruise to Neptune and a 4 yr prime orbital mission; alternatively a launch after 2031 would have a 16 yr direct-to-Neptune cruise phase. Our solution provides annual launch opportunities and allows for an easy upgrade to the shorter (12 yr) cruise. Odyssey would orbit Neptune retrograde (prograde with respect to Triton), using the moon's gravity to shape the orbital tour and allow coverage of Triton, Neptune, and the space environment. The atmospheric entry probe would descend in ~37 minutes to the 10 bar pressure level in Neptune's atmosphere just before Odyssey's orbit-insertion engine burn. Odyssey's mission would end by conducting a Cassini-like "Grand Finale,"passing inside the rings and ultimately taking a final great plunge into Neptune's atmosphere

Gentrification and binge drinking in California neighborhoods: It matters how long you've lived there.

BackgroundNeighborhood context plays a role in binge drinking, a behavior with major health and economic costs. Gentrification, the influx of capital and residents of higher socioeconomic status into historically-disinvested neighborhoods, is a growing trend with the potential to place urban communities under social and financial pressure. Hypothesizing that these pressures and other community changes resulting from gentrification could be tied to excessive alcohol consumption, we examined the relationship between gentrification and binge drinking in California neighborhoods.MethodsCalifornia census tracts were categorized as non-gentrifiable, stable (gentrifiable), or gentrifying from 2006 to 2015. Outcomes and covariates were obtained from the California Health Interview Survey using combined 2013-2015 data (n = 60,196). Survey-weighted logistic regression tested for associations between gentrification and any binge drinking in the prior 12 months. Additional models tested interactions between gentrification and other variables of interest, including housing tenure, federal poverty level, race/ethnicity, sex, and duration of neighborhood residence.ResultsA third of respondents reported past-year binge drinking. Controlling for demographic covariates, gentrification was not associated with binge drinking in the population overall (AOR = 1.13, 95% CI = 0.95-1.34), but was associated with binge drinking among those living in the neighborhood <5 years (AOR = 1.49, 95% CI 1.15-1.93). No association was seen among those living in their neighborhood ≥5 years.ConclusionsFor those newer to their neighborhood, gentrification is associated with binge drinking. Further understanding the relationship between gentrification and high-risk alcohol use is important for policy and public health interventions mitigating the impact of this process

Understanding the association between frequent emergency department use and jail incarceration: A cross‐sectional analysis

BackgroundFrequent emergency department (ED) use and incarceration can be driven by underlying structural factors and social needs. If frequent ED users are at increased risk for incarceration, ED-based interventions could be developed to mitigate this risk. The objective of this study was to determine whether frequent ED use is associated with incarceration.MethodsWe conducted a retrospective cross-sectional study of 46,752 individuals in San Francisco Department of Public Health's interagency, integrated Coordinated Care Management System (CCMS) during fiscal year 2018-2019. The primary exposure was frequency of ED visits, and the primary outcome was presence of any county jail incarceration during the study period. We performed descriptive and multivariable analysis to determine the association between the frequency of ED use and jail encounters.ResultsThe percentage of those with at least one episode of incarceration during the study period increased with increasing ED visit frequency. Unadjusted odds of incarceration increased with ED use frequency: odds ratio (OR) = 2.14 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.94-2.35) for infrequent use, OR = 4.98 (95% CI = 4.43-5.60) for those with frequent ED use, and OR = 12.33 (95% CI = 9.59-15.86) for those with super-frequent ED use. After adjustment for observable confounders, the odds of incarceration for those with super-frequent ED use remained elevated at 2.57 (95% CI = 1.94-3.41). Of those with super-frequent ED use and at least one jail encounter, 18% were seen in an ED within 30 days after release from jail and 25% were seen in an ED within 30 days prior to arrest.ConclusionsFrequent ED use is independently associated with incarceration. The ED may be a site for intervention to prevent incarceration among frequent ED users by addressing unmet social needs