Rainfall and sentinel chicken seroconversions predict human cases of Murray Valley encephalitis in the north of Western Australia

Background Murray Valley encephalitis virus (MVEV) is a flavivirus that occurs in Australia and New Guinea. While clinical cases are uncommon, MVEV can cause severe encephalitis with high mortality. Sentinel chicken surveillance is used at many sites around Australia to provide an early warning system for risk of human infection in areas that have low population density and geographical remoteness. MVEV in Western Australia occurs in areas of low population density and geographical remoteness, resulting in logistical challenges with surveillance systems and few human cases. While epidemiological data has suggested an association between rainfall and MVEV activity in outbreak years, it has not been quantified, and the association between rainfall and sporadic cases is less clear. In this study we analysed 22 years of sentinel chicken and human case data from Western Australia in order to evaluate the effectiveness of sentinel chicken surveillance for MVEV and assess the association between rainfall and MVEV activity. Methods Sentinel chicken seroconversion, human case and rainfall data from the Kimberley and Pilbara regions of Western Australia from 1990 to 2011 were analysed using negative binomial regression. Sentinel chicken seroconversion and human cases were used as dependent variables in the model. The model was then tested against sentinel chicken and rainfall data from 2012 and 2013.Results Sentinel chicken seroconversion preceded all human cases except two in March 1993. Rainfall in the prior three months was significantly associated with both sentinel chicken seroconversion and human cases across the regions of interest. Sentinel chicken seroconversion was also predictive of human cases in the models. The model predicted sentinel chicken seroconversion in the Kimberley but not in the Pilbara, where seroconversions early in 2012 were not predicted. The latter may be due to localised MVEV activity in isolated foci at dams, which do not reflect broader virus activity in the region. Conclusions We showed that rainfall and sentinel chickens provide a useful early warning of MVEV risk to humans across endemic and epidemic areas, and that a combination of the two indicators improves the ability to assess MVEV risk and inform risk management measures

Climate Variability, Social and Environmental Factors, and Ross River Virus Transmission: Research Development and Future Research Needs

Background: Arbovirus diseases have emerged as a global public health concern. However, the impact of climatic, social and environmental variability on the transmission of arbovirus diseases remains to be determined. Objective: We provided an overview of research development and future research directions about the inter-relationship between climate variability, social and environmental factors and the transmission of Ross River virus (RRV) – the most common and widespread arbovirus disease in Australia. Methods: We conducted a systematic literature search on climatic, social and environmental factors and RRV disease. Potentially relevant studies were identified from a series of electronic searches. Databases searched were the MEDLINE (via EBSCOhost), Current Contents Connect (via ISI Web of Knowledge) and ScienceDirect. We critically reviewed key predictors of RRV transmission through an integration of our own research with literature. Results: The body of evidence reveals that the transmission cycles of RRV disease appeared to be sensitive to climate variability. Rainfall, temperature and high tides were among major determinants of the transmission of RRV disease at macro level. However, the nature and magnitude of the inter-relationship between climate variability, mosquito density and the transmission of RRV disease varied with geographic area and socio-environmental condition. Projected anthropogenic global climatic change may result in an increase in RRV infections. Conclusions: The analysis indicates that there is a complex relationship between climate variability, social and environmental factors and Ross River virus transmission. Different strategies should be adopted for the control and prevention of Ross River virus disease at different levels. These research findings could be used as an additional tool to support decision-making in disease control/surveillance and risk management

Weather Variability, Tides, and Barmah Forest Virus Disease in the Gladstone Region, Australia

In this study we examined the impact of weather variability and tides on the transmission of Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease and developed a weather-based forecasting model for BFV disease in the Gladstone region, Australia. We used seasonal autoregressive integrated moving-average (SARIMA) models to determine the contribution of weather variables to BFV transmission after the time-series data of response and explanatory variables were made stationary through seasonal differencing. We obtained data on the monthly counts of BFV cases, weather variables (e.g., mean minimum and maximum temperature, total rainfall, and mean relative humidity), high and low tides, and the population size in the Gladstone region between January 1992 and December 2001 from the Queensland Department of Health, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Queensland Department of Transport, and Australian Bureau of Statistics, respectively. The SARIMA model shows that the 5-month moving average of minimum temperature (β = 0.15, p-value < 0.001) was statistically significantly and positively associated with BFV disease, whereas high tide in the current month (β = −1.03, p-value = 0.04) was statistically significantly and inversely associated with it. However, no significant association was found for other variables. These results may be applied to forecast the occurrence of BFV disease and to use public health resources in BFV control and prevention

A spin triplet supercurrent through the half-metallic ferromagnet CrO2

In general, conventional superconductivity should not occur in a ferromagnet, though it has been seen in iron under pressure. Moreover, theory predicts that the current is always carried by pairs of electrons in a spin singlet state, so conventional superconductivity decays very rapidly when in contact with a ferromagnet, which normally prohibits the existence of singlet pairs. It has been predicted that this rapid spatial decay would not occur when spin triplet superconductivity could be induced in the ferromagnet. Here we report a Josephson supercurrent through the strong ferromagnet CrO2, from which we infer that it is a spin triplet supercurrent. Our experimental setup is different from those envisaged in the earlier predictions, but we conclude that the underlying physical explanation for our result is a conversion from spin singlet to spin triplets at the interface. The supercurrent can be switched with the direction of the magnetization, analogous to spin valve transistors, and therefore could enable magnetization-controlled Josephson junctions.Comment: 14 pages, including 3 figure

Climate Variability and Ross River Virus Transmission in Townsville Region, Australia 1985 to 1996

Background How climate variability affects the transmission of infectious diseases at a regional level remains unclear. In this paper, we assessed the impact of climate variation on the Ross River virus (RRv) transmission in the Townsville region, Queensland, north-east Australia. Methods Population-based information was obtained on monthly variations in RRv cases, climatic factors, sea level, and population growth between 1985 and 1996. Cross-correlations were computed for a series of associations between climate variables (rainfall, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, relative humidity and high tide) and the monthly incidence of RRv disease over a range of time lags. The impact of climate variability on RRv transmission was assessed using the seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model. Results There were significant correlations of the monthly incidence of RRv to rainfall, maximum temperature, minimum temperature and relative humidity, all at a lag of 2 months, and high tide in the current month. The results of SARIMA models show that monthly average rainfall (β=0.0012, p=0.04) and high tide (β=0.0262, p=0.01) were significantly associated with RRv transmission, although temperature and relative humidity did not seem to have played an important role in the Townsville region. Conclusions Rainfall, and high tide were likely to be key determinants of RRv transmission in the Townsville region

Uncertainties in projecting climate-change impacts in marine ecosystems

Projections of the impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems are a key prerequisite for the planning of adaptation strategies, yet theyare inevitablyassociated withuncertainty.Identifying,quantifying,andcommunicatingthisuncertaintyis keytobothevaluatingtherisk associated with a projection and building confidence in its robustness. Wereview howuncertainties in such projections are handled in marine science. We employan approach developedin climatemodelling by breaking uncertainty down into(i) structural (model) uncertainty,(ii) initialization and internalvariabilityuncertainty,(iii)parametricuncertainty,and(iv)scenariouncertainty.Foreachuncertaintytype,wethenexaminethecurrent state-of-the-art in assessing and quantifying its relative importance. We consider whether the marine scientific community has addressed these types of uncertainty sufficiently and highlight the opportunities and challenges associated with doing a better job. We find that even within a relatively small field such as marine science, there are substantial differences between subdisciplines in the degree of attention given to each type of uncertainty. We find that initialization uncertainty is rarely treated explicitly and reducing this type of uncertainty may deliver gainsontheseasonal-to-decadaltime-scale.Weconcludethatallpartsofmarinesciencecouldbenefitfromagreaterexchangeofideas,particularly concerningsuchauniversalproblemsuchasthetreatmentofuncertainty.Finally,marinescienceshouldstrivetoreachthepointwherescenario uncertainty is the dominant uncertainty in our projections

Oral rehydration versus intravenous therapy for treating dehydration due to gastroenteritis in children: a meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials

BACKGROUND: Despite treatment recommendations from various organizations, oral rehydration therapy (ORT) continues to be underused, particularly by physicians in high-income countries. We conducted a systematic review of randomised controlled trials (RCTs) to compare ORT and intravenous therapy (IVT) for the treatment of dehydration secondary to acute gastroenteritis in children. METHODS: RCTs were identified through MEDLINE, EMBASE, CENTRAL, authors and references of included trials, pharmaceutical companies, and relevant organizations. Screening and inclusion were performed independently by two reviewers in order to identify randomised or quasi-randomised controlled trials comparing ORT and IVT in children with acute diarrhea and dehydration. Two reviewers independently assessed study quality using the Jadad scale and allocation concealment. Data were extracted by one reviewer and checked by a second. The primary outcome measure was failure of rehydration. We analyzed data using standard meta-analytic techniques. RESULTS: The quality of the 14 included trials ranged from 0 to 3 (Jadad score); allocation concealment was unclear in all but one study. Using a random effects model, there was no significant difference in treatment failures (risk difference [RD] 3%; 95% confidence intervals [CI]: 0, 6). The Mantel-Haenzsel fixed effects model gave a significant difference between treatment groups (RD 4%; 95% CI: 2, 5) favoring IVT. Based on the four studies that reported deaths, there were six in the IVT groups and two in ORT. There were no significant differences in total fluid intake at six and 24 hours, weight gain, duration of diarrhea, or hypo/hypernatremia. Length of stay was significantly shorter for the ORT group (weighted mean difference [WMD] -1.2 days; 95% CI: -2.4,-0.02). Phlebitis occurred significantly more often with IVT (number needed to treat [NNT] 33; 95% CI: 25,100); paralytic ileus occurred more often with ORT (NNT 33; 95% CI: 20,100). These results may not be generalizable to children with persistent vomiting. CONCLUSION: There were no clinically important differences between ORT and IVT in terms of efficacy and safety. For every 25 children (95% CI: 20, 50) treated with ORT, one would fail and require IVT. The results support existing practice guidelines recommending ORT as the first course of treatment in appropriate children with dehydration secondary to gastroenteritis

Negative Effect of Smoking on the Performance of the QuantiFERON TB Gold in Tube Test.

False negative and indeterminate Interferon Gamma Release Assay (IGRA) results are a well documented problem. Cigarette smoking is known to increase the risk of tuberculosis (TB) and to impair Interferon-gamma (IFN-γ) responses to antigenic challenge, but the impact of smoking on IGRA performance is not known. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of smoking on IGRA performance in TB patients in a low and high TB prevalence setting respectively. Patients with confirmed TB from Denmark (DK, n = 34; 20 smokers) and Tanzania (TZ, n = 172; 23 smokers) were tested with the QuantiFERON-TB Gold In tube (QFT). Median IFN-γ level in smokers and non smokers were compared and smoking was analysed as a risk factor for false negative and indeterminate QFT results. Smokers from both DK and TZ had lower IFN-γ antigen responses (median 0.9 vs. 4.2 IU/ml, p = 0.04 and 0.4 vs. 1.6, p < 0.01), less positive (50 vs. 86%, p = 0.03 and 48 vs. 75%, p < 0.01) and more false negative (45 vs. 0%, p < 0.01 and 26 vs. 11%, p = 0.04) QFT results. In Tanzanian patients, logistic regression analysis adjusted for sex, age, HIV and alcohol consumption showed an association of smoking with false negative (OR 17.1, CI: 3.0-99.1, p < 0.01) and indeterminate QFT results (OR 5.1, CI: 1.2-21.3, p = 0.02). Cigarette smoking was associated with false negative and indeterminate IGRA results in both a high and a low TB endemic setting independent of HIV status

Reciprocity as a foundation of financial economics

This paper argues that the subsistence of the fundamental theorem of contemporary financial mathematics is the ethical concept ‘reciprocity’. The argument is based on identifying an equivalence between the contemporary, and ostensibly ‘value neutral’, Fundamental Theory of Asset Pricing with theories of mathematical probability that emerged in the seventeenth century in the context of the ethical assessment of commercial contracts in a framework of Aristotelian ethics. This observation, the main claim of the paper, is justified on the basis of results from the Ultimatum Game and is analysed within a framework of Pragmatic philosophy. The analysis leads to the explanatory hypothesis that markets are centres of communicative action with reciprocity as a rule of discourse. The purpose of the paper is to reorientate financial economics to emphasise the objectives of cooperation and social cohesion and to this end, we offer specific policy advice

Spinal involvement in mucopolysaccharidosis IVA (Morquio-Brailsford or Morquio A syndrome): presentation, diagnosis and management.

Mucopolysaccharidosis IVA (MPS IVA), also known as Morquio-Brailsford or Morquio A syndrome, is a lysosomal storage disorder caused by a deficiency of the enzyme N-acetyl-galactosamine-6-sulphate sulphatase (GALNS). MPS IVA is multisystemic but manifests primarily as a progressive skeletal dysplasia. Spinal involvement is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in MPS IVA. Early diagnosis and timely treatment of problems involving the spine are critical in preventing or arresting neurological deterioration and loss of function. This review details the spinal manifestations of MPS IVA and describes the tools used to diagnose and monitor spinal involvement. The relative utility of radiography, computed tomography (CT) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) for the evaluation of cervical spine instability, stenosis, and cord compression is discussed. Surgical interventions, anaesthetic considerations, and the use of neurophysiological monitoring during procedures performed under general anaesthesia are reviewed. Recommendations for regular radiological imaging and neurologic assessments are presented, and the need for a more standardized approach for evaluating and managing spinal involvement in MPS IVA is addressed