Estimating the Under-Five Mortality Rate Using a Bayesian Hierarchical Time Series Model

Background: Millennium Development Goal 4 calls for a reduction in the under-five mortality rate by two-thirds between 1990 and 2015, which corresponds to an annual rate of decline of 4.4%. The United Nations Inter-Agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation estimates under-five mortality in every country to measure progress. For the majority of countries, the estimates within a country are based on the assumption of a piece-wise constant rate of decline. Methods and Findings: This paper proposes an alternative method to estimate under-five mortality, such that the underlying rate of change is allowed to vary smoothly over time using a time series model. Information about the average rate of decline and changes therein is exchanged between countries using a Bayesian hierarchical model. Cross-validation exercises suggest that the proposed model provides credible bounds for the under-five mortality rate that are reasonably well calibrated during the observation period. The alternative estimates suggest smoother trends in under-five mortality and give new insights into changes in the rate of decline within countries. Conclusions: The proposed model offers an alternative modeling approach for obtaining estimates of under-five mortality which removes the restriction of a piece-wise linear rate of decline and introduces hierarchy to exchange information between countries. The newly proposed estimates of the rate of decline in under-5 mortality and the uncertaint

Equity and Geography: The Case of Child Mortality in Papua New Guinea

Background: Recent assessments show continued decline in child mortality in Papua New Guinea (PNG), yet complete subnational analyses remain rare. This study aims to estimate under-five mortality in PNG at national and subnational levels to examine the importance of geographical inequities in health outcomes and track progress towards Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 4

Mortality Measurement Matters: Improving Data Collection and Estimation Methods for Child and Adult Mortality

Colin Mathers and Ties Boerma discuss three research articles in PLoS Medicine that address the measurement and analysis of child and adult mortality data collected through death registration, censuses, and household surveys

National and subnational mortality effects of metabolic risk factors and smoking in Iran: a comparative risk assessment

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Mortality from cardiovascular and other chronic diseases has increased in Iran. Our aim was to estimate the effects of smoking and high systolic blood pressure (SBP), fasting plasma glucose (FPG), total cholesterol (TC), and high body mass index (BMI) on mortality and life expectancy, nationally and subnationally, using representative data and comparable methods.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We used data from the Non-Communicable Disease Surveillance Survey to estimate means and standard deviations for the metabolic risk factors, nationally and by region. Lung cancer mortality was used to measure cumulative exposure to smoking. We used data from the death registration system to estimate age-, sex-, and disease-specific numbers of deaths in 2005, adjusted for incompleteness using demographic methods. We used systematic reviews and meta-analyses of epidemiologic studies to obtain the effect of risk factors on disease-specific mortality. We estimated deaths and life expectancy loss attributable to risk factors using the comparative risk assessment framework.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In 2005, high SBP was responsible for 41,000 (95% uncertainty interval: 38,000, 44,000) deaths in men and 39,000 (36,000, 42,000) deaths in women in Iran. High FPG, BMI, and TC were responsible for about one-third to one-half of deaths attributable to SBP in men and/or women. Smoking was responsible for 9,000 deaths among men and 2,000 among women. If SBP were reduced to optimal levels, life expectancy at birth would increase by 3.2 years (2.6, 3.9) and 4.1 years (3.2, 4.9) in men and women, respectively; the life expectancy gains ranged from 1.1 to 1.8 years for TC, BMI, and FPG. SBP was also responsible for the largest number of deaths in every region, with age-standardized attributable mortality ranging from 257 to 333 deaths per 100,000 adults in different regions.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>Management of blood pressure through diet, lifestyle, and pharmacological interventions should be a priority in Iran. Interventions for other metabolic risk factors and smoking can also improve population health.</p

A Rapid Assessment of the Quality of Neonatal Healthcare in Kilimanjaro Region, Northeast Tanzania.

While child mortality is declining in Africa there has been no evidence of a comparable reduction in neonatal mortality. The quality of inpatient neonatal care is likely a contributing factor but data from resource limited settings are few. The objective of this study was to assess the quality of neonatal care in the district hospitals of the Kilimanjaro region of Tanzania. Clinical records were reviewed for ill or premature neonates admitted to 13 inpatient health facilities in the Kilimanjaro region; staffing and equipment levels were also assessed. Among the 82 neonates reviewed, key health information was missing from a substantial proportion of records: on maternal antenatal cards, blood group was recorded for 52 (63.4%) mothers, Rhesus (Rh) factor for 39 (47.6%), VDRL for 59 (71.9%) and HIV status for 77 (93.1%). From neonatal clinical records, heart rate was recorded for3 (3.7%) neonates, respiratory rate in 14, (17.1%) and temperature in 33 (40.2%). None of 13 facilities had a functioning premature unit despite calculated gestational age <36 weeks in 45.6% of evaluated neonates. Intravenous fluids and oxygen were available in 9 out of 13 of facilities, while antibiotics and essential basic equipment were available in more than two thirds. Medication dosing errors were common; under-dosage for ampicillin, gentamicin and cloxacillin was found in 44.0%, 37.9% and 50% of cases, respectively, while over-dosage was found in 20.0%, 24.2% and 19.9%, respectively. Physician or assistant physician staffing levels by the WHO indicator levels (WISN) were generally low. Key aspects of neonatal care were found to be poorly documented or incorrectly implemented in this appraisal of neonatal care in Kilimanjaro. Efforts towards quality assurance and enhanced motivation of staff may improve outcomes for this vulnerable group

Quality of Maternal and Neonatal Care in Albania, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan: A Systematic, Standard-Based, Participatory Assessment

BACKGROUND: Progress in maternal and neonatal mortality has been slow in many countries despite increasing access to institutional births, suggesting deficiencies in the quality of care. We carried out a systematic assessment of the quality of maternal and newborn care in three CEE/CIS countries, using an innovative approach to identify priority issues and promote action. METHODS: A standard-based tool, covering over 400 items grouped in 13 main areas ranging from support services to case management, was used to assess a sample of ten maternity hospitals in Albania, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. Sources of information were visit to services, medical records, observation of cases, and interviews with staff and mothers. A score (range 0 to 3) was attributed to each item and area of care. The assessment was carried out by a multidisciplinary team of international and national professionals. Local managers and staff provided the necessary information and were involved in discussing the findings and the priority actions. RESULTS: Quality of care was found to be substandard in all 13 areas. The lowest scores (between one and two) were obtained by: management of normal labour, delivery, obstetric complications and sick babies; infection prevention; use of guidelines and audits; monitoring and follow-up. Neonatal care as a whole scored better than obstetric care. Interviewed mothers identified lack of information, insufficient support during labour and lack of companionship as main issues. Actions to improve quality of care were identified at facility as well as at central level and framed according to main health system functions. CONCLUSIONS: Quality of care is a key issue to improve maternal and neonatal outcomes, particularly in countries such as CEE/CIS where access to institutional births is nearly universal. Approaches that involve health professionals and managers in comprehensive, action-oriented assessments of quality of care are promising and should be further supported

Temporal trends (1977-2007) and ethnic inequity in child mortality in rural villages of southern Guinea Bissau

Background Guinea Bissau is one of the poorest countries in the world, with one of the highest under-5 mortality rate. Despite its importance for policy planning, data on child mortality are often not available or of poor quality in low-income countries like Guinea Bissau. Our aim in this study was to use the baseline survey to estimate child mortality in rural villages in southern Guinea Bissau for a 30 years period prior to a planned cluster randomised intervention. We aimed to investigate temporal trends with emphasis on historical events and the effect of ethnicity, polygyny and distance to the health centre on child mortality. Methods A baseline survey was conducted prior to a planned cluster randomised intervention to estimate child mortality in 241 rural villages in southern Guinea Bissau between 1977 and 2007. Crude child mortality rates were estimated by Kaplan-Meier method from birth history of 7854 women. Cox regression models were used to investigate the effects of birth periods with emphasis on historical events, ethnicity, polygyny and distance to the health centre on child mortality. Results High levels of child mortality were found at all ages under five with a significant reduction in child mortality over the time periods of birth except for 1997-2001. That period comprises the 1998/99 civil war interval, when child mortality was 1.5% higher than in the previous period. Children of Balanta ethnic group had higher hazard of dying under five years of age than children from other groups until 2001. Between 2002 and 2007, Fula children showed the highest mortality. Increasing walking distance to the nearest health centre increased the hazard, though not substantially, and polygyny had a negligible and statistically not significant effect on the hazard. Conclusion Child mortality is strongly associated with ethnicity and it should be considered in health policy planning. Child mortality, though considerably decreased during the past 30 years, remains high in rural Guinea Bissau. Temporal trends also suggest that civil wars have detrimental effects on child mortality. Trial Registration Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN5243333

Global Burden of Sickle Cell Anaemia in Children under Five, 2010-2050: Modelling Based on Demographics, Excess Mortality, and Interventions

The global burden of sickle cell anaemia (SCA) is set to rise as a consequence of improved survival in high-prevalence low- and middle-income countries and population migration to higher-income countries. The host of quantitative evidence documenting these changes has not been assembled at the global level. The purpose of this study is to estimate trends in the future number of newborns with SCA and the number of lives that could be saved in under-five children with SCA by the implementation of different levels of health interventions.First, we calculated projected numbers of newborns with SCA for each 5-y interval between 2010 and 2050 by combining estimates of national SCA frequencies with projected demographic data. We then accounted for under-five mortality (U5m) projections and tested different levels of excess mortality for children with SCA, reflecting the benefits of implementing specific health interventions for under-five patients in 2015, to assess the number of lives that could be saved with appropriate health care services. The estimated number of newborns with SCA globally will increase from 305,800 (confidence interval [CI]: 238,400-398,800) in 2010 to 404,200 (CI: 242,500-657,600) in 2050. It is likely that Nigeria (2010: 91,000 newborns with SCA [CI: 77,900-106,100]; 2050: 140,800 [CI: 95,500-200,600]) and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (2010: 39,700 [CI: 32,600-48,800]; 2050: 44,700 [CI: 27,100-70,500]) will remain the countries most in need of policies for the prevention and management of SCA. We predict a decrease in the annual number of newborns with SCA in India (2010: 44,400 [CI: 33,700-59,100]; 2050: 33,900 [CI: 15,900-64,700]). The implementation of basic health interventions (e.g., prenatal diagnosis, penicillin prophylaxis, and vaccination) for SCA in 2015, leading to significant reductions in excess mortality among under-five children with SCA, could, by 2050, prolong the lives of 5,302,900 [CI: 3,174,800-6,699,100] newborns with SCA. Similarly, large-scale universal screening could save the lives of up to 9,806,000 (CI: 6,745,800-14,232,700) newborns with SCA globally, 85% (CI: 81%-88%) of whom will be born in sub-Saharan Africa. The study findings are limited by the uncertainty in the estimates and the assumptions around mortality reductions associated with interventions.Our quantitative approach confirms that the global burden of SCA is increasing, and highlights the need to develop specific national policies for appropriate public health planning, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. Further empirical collaborative epidemiological studies are vital to assess current and future health care needs, especially in Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and India