In Pursuit of New Physics with B_s Decays

The presence of a sizeable CP-violating phase in B_s^0-B_s^0-bar mixing would be an unambiguous signal of physics beyond the Standard Model. We analyse various possibilities to detect such a new phase considering both tagged and untagged decays. The effects of a sizeable width difference Delta Gamma between the B_s mass eigenstates, on which the untagged analyses rely, are included in all formulae. A novel method to find this phase from simple measurements of lifetimes and branching ratios in untagged decays is proposed. This method does not involve two-exponential fits, which require much larger statistics. For the tagged decays, an outstanding role is played by the observables of the time-dependent angular distribution of the B_s -> J/psi [-> l^+ l^-] \phi [-> K^+K^-] decay products. We list the formulae needed for the angular analysis in the presence of both a new CP-violating phase and a sizeable Delta Gamma, and propose methods to remove a remaining discrete ambiguity in the new phase. This phase can therefore be determined in an unambiguous way.Comment: minor changes, lattice prediction of Delta Gamma updated, appears in PR

Direct CP violation in b -> d J/\psi decays

We investigate the possibility of observing direct CP violation in self-tagging B-meson decays of the type b -> d J/\psi. The CP asymmetry can be generated due to strong or electromagnetic scattering in the final state, or due to long distance effects. The first two contributions give asymmetries of a few 10^(-3), in the standard model. The long distance effects are hard to estimate, but it cannot be excluded that they yield asymmetries of about 1%.Comment: 10 pages, Fermilab-pub-93/307-

Monitoring international migration flows in Europe. Towards a statistical data base combining data from different sources

The paper reviews techniques developed in demography, geography and statistics that are useful for bridging the gap between available data on international migration flows and the information required for policy making and research. The basic idea of the paper is as follows: to establish a coherent and consistent data base that contains sufficiently detailed, up-to-date and accurate information, data from several sources should be combined. That raises issues of definition and measurement, and of how to combine data from different origins properly. The issues may be tackled more easily if the statistics that are being compiled are viewed as different outcomes or manifestations of underlying stochastic processes governing migration. The link between the processes and their outcomes is described by models, the parameters of which must be estimated from the available data. That may be done within the context of socio-demographic accounting. The paper discusses the experience of the U.S. Bureau of the Census in combining migration data from several sources. It also summarizes the many efforts in Europe to establish a coherent and consistent data base on international migration. The paper was written at IIASA. It is part of the Migration Estimation Study, which is a collaborative IIASA-University of Groningen project, funded by the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO). The project aims at developing techniques to obtain improved estimates of international migration flows by country of origin and country of destination

Endogenous technological change, innovation diffusion and transitional dynamics in a nonlinear growth model

This paper addresses capital accumulation and capital productivity change in an economy with endogenous technological change and floors and ceilings in activity. The properties of the resulting two-variable nonlinear differential equation system are studied in some detail. The welfare implications are also considered. When discrete lags are introduced, wide-ranging behaviour emerges, which includes convergence to a steady-state, catastrophes, hysteresis, limit cycles and chaos. Simulations illustrate the results. It is found that external shocks, such as the diffusion of innovations from elsewhere, do not just change the level of the steady-state equilibrium but also the dynamical properties of the paths of output and productivity

A Coordinated Effort to Manage Soybean Rust in North America: A Success Story in Soybean Disease Monitoring

Existing crop monitoring programs determine the incidence and distribution of plant diseases and pathogens and assess the damage caused within a crop production region. These programs have traditionally used observed or predicted disease and pathogen data and environmental information to prescribe management practices that minimize crop loss (3,69). Monitoring programs are especially important for crops with broad geographic distribution or for diseases that can cause rapid and great economic losses. Successful monitoring programs have been developed for several plant diseases, including downy mildew of cucurbits, Fusarium head blight of wheat, potato late blight, and rusts of cereal crops (13,36,51,80)