Financial integration and financial development in transition economies : what happens during financial crises ?

This papers provides an empirical analysis of the role of financial development and financial integration in the growth dynamics of transition countries. We focus on the role of financial integration in determining the impact of financial development on growth, distinguishing "normal times" from periods of financial crises. In addition to confirming the significant positive effect on growth exerted by financial development and financial integration, our estimates show that a higher degree of financial openness tends to reduce the contractionary effect of financial crises, by cushioning the effect on the domestic supply of credit. Consequently, the high reliance on international capital flows by transition countries does not necessarily increase their financial fragility. This implies that financial protectionism is a self-defeating policy, at least for transition countries.Transition economies, financial integration, financial crises, economic growth, threshold effects.

PREDVIĐANJE BANKROTA POMOĆU POLU-PARAMETARSKOG MODELA JEDINSTVENOG INDEKSA

Semi-parametric methods are virtually neglected in the bankruptcy prediction literature. This paper compares the logit model, as the standard parametric model for bankruptcy prediction, to the semi-parametric model developed by Klein and Spady (1993). Special care is devoted to the effect of choice-based sampling prediction accuracy. The choice of the sampling and estimation method lead to a similar trade offs. Using choice-based sampling and logit model leads to minimization of risk exposure. Samples unbalanced across groups and the semi-parametric method allow for better overall prediction accuracy and thus profit maximization.Polu-parametarski modeli su doslovno zanemareni u literaturi o predviđanju bankrota. Ovaj rad uspoređuje logit model, kao standardni parametarski model za predviđanje bankrota, sa poluparametarskim modelom kojeg su razvili Klein i Spady (1993). Posebna je pažnja posvećena efektu choice-based uzorkovanja na točnost predviđanja. Odabir metode uzorkovanja i procjene dovele su do sličnih balansiranja (trade offs). Korištenje choice-based uzorkovanja i logit modela dovodi do minimaliziranja rizika. Nebalansirani uzorci i polu-parametarska metoda omogućuju generalno bolju kvalitetu predviđanja te tako i maksimizaciju profita

Time Dependent Efficiency of Free Trade Agreements - The Case of Slovenia and the CEFTA Agreement

In international trade literature there is a common feature that the abolishment of barriers to trade leads to direct expansion of trade flows. Many empirical studies that simulate welfare effects of trade liberalisation explicitly make use of this direct tariff reduction – trade expansion mechanism. On the contrary, this paper explores panel data to analyse the timedependent efficiency of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs). It is shown that trade liberalisation per se needs time to become effective, and that immediately after the enforcement of the FTA the autonomous factors (such as domestic demand for particular import goods) are of great importance. Using an illustrative case of rapid expansion of Slovenian imports from other CEECs in the period 1993–1998, the paper demonstrates that the tariff reductions become effective in the second to third year after enforcement of the FTA. In addition, the relation between tariff reductions and trade expansions is non-linear, which reflects the time needed for new business connections to be established.

Forecasting Macroeconomic Variables Using Diffusion Indexes in Short Samples with Structural Change

We conduct a detailed simulation study of the forecasting performance of diffusion index-based methods in short samples with structural change. We consider several data generation processes, to mimic different types of structural change, and compare the relative forecasting performance of factor models and more traditional time series methods. We find that changes in the loading structure of the factors into the variables of interest are extremely important in determining the performance of factor models. We complement the analysis with an empirical evaluation of forecasts for the key macroeconomic variables of the Euro area and Slovenia, for which relatively short samples are officially available and structural changes are likely. The results are coherent with the findings of the simulation exercise, and confirm the relatively good performance of factor-based forecasts also in short samples with structural change.Factor models, forecasts, time series models, structural change, short samples, parameter uncertainty

Is there a Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson effect? New panel data evidence from 28 European countries

Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson phenomenon describes the relationship between productivity and price inflation within different sectors of a particular economy, where the sectoral productivity differential stands as one of the possible drivers of the (structural) price inflation. The Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson effect could therefore represent an additional inflation source of the economy. From an economic policy perspective it is important to address this issue, in order to contain inflation sufficiently low with adequate policy measures. Using a dynamic panel data model the Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis is tested and confirmed by applying a strict distinction between the sectoral price inflation and the average labour productivity growth data from the 1990-2017 period for 28 European countries. Additionally, we provide inflation simulations based on the results that confirm the existence of the Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson effect

Exchange Rate Policy and Inflation in Acceding Countries: The Role of Pass-through

This paper analyzes the link between the choice of exchange rate regime and inflationary performance in four acceding countries to the EU: the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovenia. The results allow a clear ranking of countries according to the size of the pass-through effect and the importance of exchange rate shocks to overall inflationary performance. In particular, perfect pass-through effect can be associated with accommodative exchange rate policy, which can moreover become the most important source of inflationary pressures. The analysis suggests that for CEEC-4 an early adoption of the Euro can provide the most efficient framework for reducing inflation.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/40060/3/wp674.pd

Structural FECM: Cointegration in large-scale structural FAVAR models

Abstract Starting from the dynamic factor model for non-stationary data we derive the factor-augmented error correction model (FECM

Structural FECM:cointegration in large-scale structural FAVAR models

Starting from the dynamic factor model for nonstationary data we derive the factor-augmented error correction model (FECM) and its moving-average represen-tation. The latter is used for the identification of structural shocks and their prop-agation mechanisms. We show how to implement classical identification schemes based on long-run restrictions in the case of large panels. The importance of the error correction mechanism for impulse response analysis is analyzed by means of both empirical examples and simulation experiments. Our results show that the bias in estimated impulse responses in a factor-augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) model is positively related to the strength of the error correction mechanism and the cross-section dimension of the panel. We observe empirically in a large panel of US data that these features have a substantial effect on the responses of several variables to the identified permanent real (productivity) and monetary policy shock