Surges and stops in greenfield and M&A FDI flows to developing countries: analysis by mode of entry

This paper investigates the factors associated with foreign direct investment “surges” and “stops”, defined as sharp increases and decreases, respectively, of foreign direct investment inflows to the developing world and differentiated based on whether these events are led by waves in greenfield investments or mergers and acquisitions. Greenfield-led surges and stops occur more frequently than mergers-and-acquisitions-led ones and different factors are associated with the onset of the two types of events. Global liquidity is the factor significantly and positively associated with a surge, regardless of its kind, while a global economic growth slowdown and a surge in the preceding year are the main factors associated with a stop. Greenfield-led surges and stops are more likely in low-income countries and mergers-and-acquisitions-led surges are less likely in resource-rich countries than elsewhere in the developing world. Global growth accelerations and increases in financial openness, domestic economic and financial instability are associated with mergers-and-acquisitions-led surges but not with greenfield-led ones. These results are particularly relevant for developing countries where FDI flows are the major type of capital flows and suggest that developing countries’ macroeconomic vulnerability increases following periods of increased global liquidity. As countries develop they typically become more exposed to merger-and-acquisition-led surges, which are more likely than greenfield-led surges and stops to be short-lived and associated with domestic macroeconomic policies

Welfare spending and quality of growth in developing countries: A note on evidence from Hopefuls, Contenders and Best Performers

The transition from the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) to Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) has shifted the policy debate from growth to ‘quality of growth’ (QG). We explore a new dataset on QG by the IMF and classify 93 developing countries for the period 1990–2011 in terms of Hopefuls, Contenders and Best Performers. The aims are as follows: (i) to depict the contradiction between high-growth and poor social welfare and (ii) to assess the influence of education and health spending on the QG. We use quantile regressions to articulate least and best QG performers. Two key findings emerge. First, 31 of the 33 countries in the Hopefuls category are in SSA. Second, the effect of health is decreasingly positive from Hopefuls to Best Performers, while the impact of education is increasingly positive. As a main policy implication, it would benefit countries in SSA to invest more in health relative to education now, but decrease such health expenditure and increase education spending as the economies in the sub-region make the transition from Hopeful to Contenders and finally to Best Performers in terms of ‘quality of growth

Understanding the risk and protective factors associated with obesity amongst Libyan adults - a qualitative study

BACKGROUND: There are a range of multifaceted behavioural and societal factors that combine to contribute to the causes of obesity. However, it is not yet known how particularly countries' cultural norms are contributing to the global obesity epidemic. Despite obesity reaching epidemic proportions in Libya, since the discovery of oil in 1959, there is a lack of information about obesity in Libyan adults. This study sought to explore the views of key informants about the risk and protective factors associated with obesity among Libyan men and women. METHODS: A series of qualitative semi-structured interviews were conducted with Libyan healthcare professionals and community leaders. RESULTS: Eleven main themes (risk and protective factors) were identified, specifically: socio-demographic and biological factors, socioeconomic status, unhealthy eating behaviours, knowledge about obesity, social-cultural influences, Libya's healthcare facilities, physical activity and the effect of the neighbourhood environment, sedentary behaviour, Libyan food-subsidy policy, and suggestions for preventing and controlling obesity. CONCLUSIONS: Key recommendations are that an electronic health information system needs to be implemented and awareness about obesity and its causes and consequences needs to be raised among the public in order to dispel the many myths and misconceptions held by Libyans about obesity. The current political instability within Libya is contributing to a less-active lifestyle for the population due to security concerns and the impact of curfews. Our findings have implications for Libyan health policy and highlight the urgent need for action towards mitigating against the obesity epidemic in Libya