A single-level random-effects cross-lagged panel model for longitudinal mediation analysis

Cross-lagged panel models (CLPMs) are widely used to test mediation with longitudinal panel data. One major limitation of the CLPMs is that the model effects are assumed to be fixed across individuals. This assumption is likely to be violated (i.e., the model effects are random across individuals) in practice. When this happens, the CLPMs can potentially yield biased parameter estimates and misleading statistical inferences. This article proposes a model named a random-effects cross-lagged panel model (RE-CLPM) to account for random effects in CLPMs. Simulation studies show that the RE-CLPM outperforms the CLPM in recovering the mean indirect and direct effects in a longitudinal mediation analysis when random effects exist in the population. The performance of the RE-CLPM is robust to a certain degree, even when the random effects are not normally distributed. In addition, the RE-CLPM does not produce harmful results when the model effects are in fact fixed in the population. Implications of the simulation studies and potential directions for future research are discussed

Microbial and Geochemical aspects of Selenium cycling in an Estuarine system: Lake Macquarie N.S.W.

ABSTRACT This work examined the role of micro-organisms in the biogeochemical cycling of selenium within the benthic ecosystem of Lake Macquarie, a coastal lake in New South Wales with a history of anthropogenic heavy metal contamination. Certain micro-organisms possess the ability to oxidise or reduce selenium (Fleming and Alexander, 1973; Doran and Alexander, 1977), and microbial volatilisation of selenium from contaminated sediments and soils utilising naturally-occurring microflora has been shown in overseas research (Thompson-Eagle and Frankenberger, 1992) to be a potentially effective remediation strategy. In examining the impact of micro-organisms upon the oxidation state of selenium in Lake Macquarie sediments, this work also investigated and characterised selenium (and heavy metal) concentrations, speciation and geochemical phase associations (an indicator of potential bioavailability) in the sediments. Seven distinct bacterial species indigenous to Lake Macquarie were identified in this work with the ability to reduce selenium as selenite to elemental selenium, and selenium as selenate to organic forms of selenium, including volatile methylated selenium compounds. Metabolic parameters calculated for these organisms compared favourably with those reported in the literature by other researchers. Mixed populations of sediment micro-organisms were also isolated and studied in this work for their selenite and selenate reduction abilities. Total reduction of added selenite at levels up to 100 mg/L was recorded for a number of the organisms studied in this work. A maximum specific uptake rate for selenite of 3040 mgSe(IV).(gcells)-1.(h)-1 for one isolate (Shewanella putrefaciens) was determined, exceeding rates reported in the literature by other authors. Use of the indigenous micro-organisms from Lake Macquarie for the bioremediation of selenium containing waste streams was also examined in this work and selenium reduction in an immobilised cell reactor was demonstrated with such organisms. Concentrations, speciation, sediment core profiles and geochemical phase associations for selenium were determined for sediment samples collected at a variety of sites throughout Lake Macquarie and from Wyee Creek, a selenium-impacted fluvial input to the lake. The maximum concentration of selenium obtained in this work for the lake proper was 4.04 mg/kg, considerably lower than values reported over a decade ago (Batley, 1987) but consistent with reported reductions of selenium input into the lake from the lead-zinc smelter. Selective extraction methodology (Tessier et al. and BCR methods) studied geochemical phase association of selenium in Lake Macquarie sediments and found up to 44% of selenium was in bioavailable forms. Of interest and environmental concern was levels of selenium found in sediments of Wyee Creek, which previously received overflows from the ash dam associated with the Vales Point Power Station. Sediment selenium levels of up to 300 mg/kg were determined for this creek. These were an order of magnitude or more greater than those recorded for the lake itself and are of concern as to the potential impact on benthic organisms and those animals, including humans, who consume them. While this work can only provide a 'snapshot' of conditions within Lake Macquarie at the time of the sampling events recorded herein, it does make several important contributions to the understanding of selenium biogeochemistry in Lake Macquarie. These include: presentation of the hypothesis that selenium levels in surficial sediments being deposited in the north of the lake have decreased in recent years as a result of selenium reduction measures undertaken by the lead-zinc smelter; determination that up to 44% of selenium in surficial sediments from the lake is associated with sediment phases in which selenium has the potential to become remobilized and hence possibly bioavailable; and documentation of selenium concentrations in Wyee Creek, identifying the area as having selenium concentrations an order of magnitude or more greater than the lake itself. Concerning the role played by microorganisms in the biogeochemical cycling of selenium in Lake Macquarie, this work has: identified individual isolated and mixed cultures of bacteria that can reduce selenium as selenite to lower oxidation states; identified individual isolated and mixed cultures of bacteria that can reduce selenium as selenate to lower oxidation states; identified volatile methylated selenium compounds in the headspace gases of microorganisms reducing selenate; determined Minimum Inhibitory Concentrations for selenate and selenite for organisms isolated from Lake Macquarie; identified casein hydrolysate as a preferred carbon source for selenium reducing microorganisms from Lake Macquarie; and demonstrated that bioremediation of selenium contaminated waste streams using indigenous organisms from Lake Macquarie is feasible on the laboratory scale. Further research areas suggested by this work include: additional investigations of elevated selenium levels in Wyee Creek sediments; determination of the role of microbes in in-situ selenium reduction; and optimisation of selenium biotreatment/bioremediation of selenium-containing waste streams and sediments. In summary, this work, in rejecting the null hypothesis that the oxidation states of selenium in sediments from Lake Macquarie, NSW, are independent of microbial activity and accepting the alternate hypothesis that these oxidation states are not independent of microbial activity, contributes to the understanding of the role of microorganisms in the biogeochemical cycling of selenium, having applicability to both the specific ecosystem of Lake Macquarie, NSW, and also to selenium cycling in the environment in general. In addition, this work has identified selenium contamination in Wyee Creek, one of the fluvial inputs to Lake Macquarie, which was previously been undocumented in the literature and which may pose significant potential risk to humans and the ecosystem due to sediment selenium levels one or more orders of magnitude higher than those recorded in the lake itself. Finally, this work has also identified a number of microorganisms indigenous to Lake Macquarie with the ability to reduce selenium from toxic, mobile forms to less toxic, immobile or volatile forms, and these organisms have been shown to have the potential for use in treatment of selenium contaminated waste streams and also in the bioremediation of selenium-contaminated sediments

Microbial and Geochemical aspects of Selenium cycling in an Estuarine system: Lake Macquarie N.S.W.

ABSTRACT This work examined the role of micro-organisms in the biogeochemical cycling of selenium within the benthic ecosystem of Lake Macquarie, a coastal lake in New South Wales with a history of anthropogenic heavy metal contamination. Certain micro-organisms possess the ability to oxidise or reduce selenium (Fleming and Alexander, 1973; Doran and Alexander, 1977), and microbial volatilisation of selenium from contaminated sediments and soils utilising naturally-occurring microflora has been shown in overseas research (Thompson-Eagle and Frankenberger, 1992) to be a potentially effective remediation strategy. In examining the impact of micro-organisms upon the oxidation state of selenium in Lake Macquarie sediments, this work also investigated and characterised selenium (and heavy metal) concentrations, speciation and geochemical phase associations (an indicator of potential bioavailability) in the sediments. Seven distinct bacterial species indigenous to Lake Macquarie were identified in this work with the ability to reduce selenium as selenite to elemental selenium, and selenium as selenate to organic forms of selenium, including volatile methylated selenium compounds. Metabolic parameters calculated for these organisms compared favourably with those reported in the literature by other researchers. Mixed populations of sediment micro-organisms were also isolated and studied in this work for their selenite and selenate reduction abilities. Total reduction of added selenite at levels up to 100 mg/L was recorded for a number of the organisms studied in this work. A maximum specific uptake rate for selenite of 3040 mgSe(IV).(gcells)-1.(h)-1 for one isolate (Shewanella putrefaciens) was determined, exceeding rates reported in the literature by other authors. Use of the indigenous micro-organisms from Lake Macquarie for the bioremediation of selenium containing waste streams was also examined in this work and selenium reduction in an immobilised cell reactor was demonstrated with such organisms. Concentrations, speciation, sediment core profiles and geochemical phase associations for selenium were determined for sediment samples collected at a variety of sites throughout Lake Macquarie and from Wyee Creek, a selenium-impacted fluvial input to the lake. The maximum concentration of selenium obtained in this work for the lake proper was 4.04 mg/kg, considerably lower than values reported over a decade ago (Batley, 1987) but consistent with reported reductions of selenium input into the lake from the lead-zinc smelter. Selective extraction methodology (Tessier et al. and BCR methods) studied geochemical phase association of selenium in Lake Macquarie sediments and found up to 44% of selenium was in bioavailable forms. Of interest and environmental concern was levels of selenium found in sediments of Wyee Creek, which previously received overflows from the ash dam associated with the Vales Point Power Station. Sediment selenium levels of up to 300 mg/kg were determined for this creek. These were an order of magnitude or more greater than those recorded for the lake itself and are of concern as to the potential impact on benthic organisms and those animals, including humans, who consume them. While this work can only provide a 'snapshot' of conditions within Lake Macquarie at the time of the sampling events recorded herein, it does make several important contributions to the understanding of selenium biogeochemistry in Lake Macquarie. These include: presentation of the hypothesis that selenium levels in surficial sediments being deposited in the north of the lake have decreased in recent years as a result of selenium reduction measures undertaken by the lead-zinc smelter; determination that up to 44% of selenium in surficial sediments from the lake is associated with sediment phases in which selenium has the potential to become remobilized and hence possibly bioavailable; and documentation of selenium concentrations in Wyee Creek, identifying the area as having selenium concentrations an order of magnitude or more greater than the lake itself. Concerning the role played by microorganisms in the biogeochemical cycling of selenium in Lake Macquarie, this work has: identified individual isolated and mixed cultures of bacteria that can reduce selenium as selenite to lower oxidation states; identified individual isolated and mixed cultures of bacteria that can reduce selenium as selenate to lower oxidation states; identified volatile methylated selenium compounds in the headspace gases of microorganisms reducing selenate; determined Minimum Inhibitory Concentrations for selenate and selenite for organisms isolated from Lake Macquarie; identified casein hydrolysate as a preferred carbon source for selenium reducing microorganisms from Lake Macquarie; and demonstrated that bioremediation of selenium contaminated waste streams using indigenous organisms from Lake Macquarie is feasible on the laboratory scale. Further research areas suggested by this work include: additional investigations of elevated selenium levels in Wyee Creek sediments; determination of the role of microbes in in-situ selenium reduction; and optimisation of selenium biotreatment/bioremediation of selenium-containing waste streams and sediments. In summary, this work, in rejecting the null hypothesis that the oxidation states of selenium in sediments from Lake Macquarie, NSW, are independent of microbial activity and accepting the alternate hypothesis that these oxidation states are not independent of microbial activity, contributes to the understanding of the role of microorganisms in the biogeochemical cycling of selenium, having applicability to both the specific ecosystem of Lake Macquarie, NSW, and also to selenium cycling in the environment in general. In addition, this work has identified selenium contamination in Wyee Creek, one of the fluvial inputs to Lake Macquarie, which was previously been undocumented in the literature and which may pose significant potential risk to humans and the ecosystem due to sediment selenium levels one or more orders of magnitude higher than those recorded in the lake itself. Finally, this work has also identified a number of microorganisms indigenous to Lake Macquarie with the ability to reduce selenium from toxic, mobile forms to less toxic, immobile or volatile forms, and these organisms have been shown to have the potential for use in treatment of selenium contaminated waste streams and also in the bioremediation of selenium-contaminated sediments

Departures from neutrality induced by niche and relative fitness differences

© The Author(s), 2015. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Theoretical Ecology 8 (2015): 449-465, doi:10.1007/s12080-015-0261-0.Breaking the core assumption of ecological equivalence in Hubbell’s “neutral theory of biodiversity” requires a theory of species differences. In one framework for characterizing differences between competing species, non-neutral interactions are said to involve both niche differences, which promote stable coexistence, and relative fitness differences, which promote competitive exclusion. We include both in a stochastic community model in order to determine if relative fitness differences compensate for changes in community structure and dynamics induced by niche differences, possibly explaining neutral theory’s apparent success. We show that species abundance distributions are sensitive to both niche and relative fitness differences, but that certain combinations of differences result in abundance distributions that are indistinguishable from the neutral case. In contrast, the distribution of species’ lifetimes, or the time between speciation and extinction, differs under all combinations of niche and relative fitness differences. The results from our model experiment are inconsistent with the hypothesis of “emergent neutrality” and support instead a hypothesis that relative fitness differences counteract effects of niche differences on distributions of abundance. However, an even more developed theory of interspecific variation appears necessary to explain the diversity and structure of non-neutral communities.The research was funded by NSF grant ECCS-0835847 and a postdoctoral scholarship from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution

Flooding and schools: experiences in Hull in 2007

Hull, a city in the East Riding of Yorkshire, United Kingdom, suffered severe flooding in June 2007, affecting some 8,600 households and most schools. Despite the potential for damage in such disasters, no studies of the effects of floods on teachers and schools in the UK appear to have been published previously. This study analysed the impacts of the floods on teachers in Hull in two stages: first through correspondence with Hull City Council and a mailed questionnaire to 91 head teachers of primary, secondary, and special schools; and second, through in-depth interviews with head teachers from six flooded schools, representing different degrees of flood experience, and a questionnaire completed by eight teachers from the same schools. The findings reveal the importance and the complexity of the role of the school in the wider community in a time of crisis. The study highlights issues concerning preparedness for floods, support for schools, and flood protection for schools

Student access to higher education through alternative pathways and differences by equity group and discipline

Widening participation in higher education for under-represented groups is a priority internationally. In Australia, the most common entry pathway for domestic undergraduate students is by obtaining an Australian Tertiary Admission Rank (ATAR) in the final year of secondary school. The ATAR system, however, has been criticised as disadvantaging certain equity groups. Consequently, widening participation policy has encouraged alternative entry pathways into university, including enabling/bridging courses, vocational education qualifications, or portfolio entry based on demonstrated skills and experience. There is, however, relatively scarce evidence of student use of these pathways, including those from equity groups. Drawing on national enrolment data and institution-specific pathway data for 16 Australian universities, this study’s examination of admission data found increasing use of alternative pathways among most student equity groups, with variations by discipline. The findings inform stakeholder understanding of the relative success of alternative entry pathways in widening participation, informing strategies for improvement and future policy

Employment and Study Outcomes After Graduation An Australian Higher Education Equity Perspective

However, graduates from low socioeconomic backgrounds, who were Aboriginal or Torres Strait Islanders, or who were from non-English speaking backgrounds were found to be disadvantaged in the labour market, and policy action to address this ...Higher education policy in Australia has contributed to positive outcomes for equity groups, in terms of facilitating access, participation and completion of university. At the same time, prior research has indicated that labour market outcomes are comparable for graduates from equity groups to their non-equity counterparts. It is unknown, however, whether graduates from disadvantaged backgrounds have equitable outcomes in terms of participation in further study after the completion of their undergraduate degree. Given that research findings indicate superior earnings and positive labour market outcomes for postgraduates, it is of policy interest to examine post-study pathways for disadvantaged individuals, in comparison with their relatively privileged peers. This study uses data from the 2016 Australian Graduate Outcomes Survey, linked to student administrative records from 19 participating Australian universities, to examine post-degree study and employment outcomes. In particular, the study looks at how equity group membership, undergraduate degree characteristics, and undergraduate academic performance influences post-degree study and employment outcomes. The results from the multivariate analyses indicate that graduates from a low socioeconomic status (SES) background, or with disability, or from a non-English speaking background (NESB) were less likely to be in employment post-degree, relative to their respective counterparts. The estimated reduced propensity of employment for these groups were rather sizable, and were up to 16 per cent less for NESB graduates. However, in terms of further study post-degree, graduates from all equity groups, with the exception of graduates from regional and remote areas, were around two to five per cent more likely to be in further study after their undergraduate degrees were completed, relative to graduates from non-disadvantaged backgrounds. In addition, academic ability, as proxied by Weighted Average Marks, and undergraduate degree field of study areas were found to be influential on the graduates’ propensity to be in further study or employment. Furthermore, graduates from the equity groups of low SES background, disability and NESB were found to be disadvantaged in labour market outcomes. For example, they were less likely to be in full-time employment, more likely to be mismatched in their jobs if there were employed, and earned less. In particular, graduates from NESB backgrounds were the most disadvantaged in these labour market outcomes. Despite poor labour market outcomes for the stated equity groups, the findings from this study are encouraging for postgraduate study for students from disadvantaged backgrounds. From the perspective of higher education participation, participation in further study, including postgraduate courses, appear to be accessible for individuals from equity backgrounds. Therefore, more needs to be done from the perspective of ensuring equitable employment outcomes, especially for students from equity backgrounds as they enter employment after post-graduate study

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF USING A BORDER TREATMENT FOR REDUCING ORGANOPHOSPHATE USE IN SEED POTATO PRODUCTION

Recent research shows initial colonization of potato fields by winged green peach aphid is concentrated at field edges. This suggests that insecticides applied only to field margins during initial colonization would largely eliminate a colonizing aphid population, conserve natural enemies in the field center, and reduce insecticide use. To better understand the costs and benefits of reducing organophosphate use, the six participating growers were interviewed to ascertain their reason for participating and their satisfaction with the border only treatment method as well as their estimated net economic benefits. Five of the farms ranked cost reduction as the most important reason for participating. The sixth farm ranked reducing virus spread as the most important reason with cost reduction as their second most important reason. The average cost savings over all 28 participating fields of using the border treatment is estimated to be $23.85 per acre for the entire field-a 93% savings. Almost all the farmers found the border treatment method to be successful at aphid control. None of the farmers observed any impact on the physical yield of seed potato. All the fields were certified during the summer except for one of Farmer F's fields that was lost because of off type. In conclusion, the border treatment method seems likely to be adopted by many farmers since the potential cost saving is large and farmers dislike Monitor. However, some farmers may resist the method due to scouting requirements and costs. Also, farmers with fields that do not meet the uniformity requirements of the border treatment will not be successful in their use of the border method.Crop Production/Industries,