Assessment of the Cod Stock in NAFO Division 3M

An assessment of the cod stock in NAFO Division 3M is performed. A Bayesian model, as used in the last assessments, was used to perform the analysis. As there are inconsistencies with total catch of last year, a prior was added for 2011 catch. Results indicate a fairly substantial increase in SSB, reaching a value well above Blim. The sixyears retrospective plot shows that the recruitment is overestimated every year. Three year projections indicate that fishing at the Fstatusquo level should allow SSB to increase slowly, although abundance will remain at levels below those observed at the beginning of the series. If the fishing mortality were return to the levels seen before 1995, stock recovery would become improbable

Assessment of the Cod Stock in NAFO Division 3M

An assessment of the cod stock in NAFO Division 3M is performed. A Bayesian model, as used in the last assessments, was used to perform the analysis. As there are inconsistencies with total catch of the last three years, a prior was added for 2011 and 2012 catch and the Daily Catch Report data were used in 2013. Results indicate a general increase in SSB since 2005, reaching a value well above Blim since 2009

Cod 3M Projections: risk estimation and inputs

The last full assessment for the 3M Cod in the NAFO Scientific Council was carried out in June 2015, giving an advice for two years. Some problems concerning the NAFO 3M cod projections were identified during the 2015 Annual Meeting. Trying to solve these issues, a Workshop was organized by the EU in March 2017. An issue raised by the Fisheries Commission in 2015 is that the risk of exceeding Flim for some of the projection scenarios presented in the assessment was difficult to interpret in light of the overlap in credible intervals of the yields of the various options. To solve this issue, the authors developed a new projection method to perform the 3M cod projections and compute risk, projecting a single catch value instead of a distribution of catches. One of the problems raised by the Scientific Council is how to estimate the inputs to be used in the projections due to the rapid changes in the biology of this stock, especially from 2007. Normally the last three years mean is used as input for these parameters. The changes in the biological parameters cause problems in the projections results as the inputs used for the projected years usually are overestimated, leading to an overestimation of the SSB and the associated TAC for a given F. To solve this issue, the authors suggest using just the last year inputs in the projections. An attempt to add uncertainty in the last year inputs was made, examining the interannual changes observed in past years in the inputs and taking into consideration the correlation between them. The uncertainty and the risk in the results increases considerably and it was suggested to study deeply this method before its implementation. The authors conclude that caution should be exercised concerning the results of the projections for this stock. If uncertainty in the projection inputs is implemented, advice for more than one year will not be accurate due to the issues identified.Executive Agency for Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (EASME)Versión del edito

NAFO Cod 3M Workshop Current Assessment and Projection Uncertainties

On behalf of the Specific Contract No. 03 (SC03) Support to a robust model assessment, benchmark and development of a management strategy evaluation for cod in NAFO Division 3M under the Framework Contract EASME/EMFF/2016/008 Provision of Scientific Advice for Fisheries beyond EU Waters, the NAFO 3M cod assessment Workshop was held at the Instituto Español de Oceanografia (IEO), Vigo-Beiramar, Spain, during 21st-23rd March 2017. With the inclusion of the following three new points the provisional agenda (ToRs for Task 1 of SC03) was approved (Annex 1): Presentation of the Specific Contract No. 03 (SC03) Support to a robust model assessment, benchmark and development of a management strategy evaluation for cod in NAFO Division 3M. Proposals to be submitted to the 2017 June NAFO Scientific Council (SC) meeting. Recommendations from this Workshop on matters that need to be deeper studied during the benchmark process.The Executive Agency for Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (EASME

Assessment of the Cod Stock in NAFO Division 3M

An assessment of the cod stock in NAFO Division 3M is performed. A Bayesian model, as used in the last assessments, was used to perform the analysis. The data set was extend to 1972 and a new tuning survey is used, the Canadian survey during 1978-1985. As there are inconsistencies with total catch of the last two years, a prior was added for 2011 and 2012 catch. Results indicate a fairly substantial increase in SSB, reaching a value well above Blim. The six-years retrospective plots show an underestimation in the recruitment the last two years after several years of underestimation. Three year projections indicate that fishing at the Fstatusquo level should allow SSB to increase slowly in the short term

Report of the NAFO Joint Fisheries Commission-Scientific Council Working Group on Risk-Based Management Strategies (WG-RBMS)

1. Opening 2. Appointment of Rapporteur 3. Adoption of Agenda 4. Discussion on the Timeline for the Revision NAFO PA Framework 5. Discussion on the Work Schedule for the 3M Cod Benchmark Assessment 6. Greenland halibut (GHL) Management Strategy Evaluation (MSE) Review 7. Recommendations to forward to FC and SC 8. Other Matters 9. NAFO Working Group on Improving Efficiency of NAFO Working Group Process 10. Adoption of Report 11. Adjournmen