MPM – The Magyar Nemzeti Bank’s monetary policy model

March 2011 marked the introduction of the MNB’s Monetary Policy Model (MPM), representing a paradigm shift in both inflation forecasting and monetary policy decision support. In contrast to the previous conditional projections, the MPM offers an endogenous definition for both the policy rate and the exchange rate. Given the forward-looking nature of this model, expectations by economic agents play a key role in monetary transmission; therefore, instead of one-off interest rate measures, the achievement of inflation target is guaranteed by the entire interest rate path over the forecast horizon. In the following, we discuss the underlying structure and logic behind the MPM, as well as the functioning of key behavioural equations, while also examining how the channels of monetary transmission appear in the model. We also present our motivations regarding the model switch and review how developing and operating this new tool have changed our current processes.forecasting, monetary policy, inflation targeting, macroeconomic model.

A bevándorlás társadalmi, gazdasági és területi jellemzői Spanyolországban = The social, economic and regional characteristics of immigration in Spain

The examination of immigration is very important because it has an impact on the economic and social state of the sending and receiving countries. In addition, it has security risks as well. In the sending countries migration could lead to the decline of the population while in the receiving ones it could support the population growth and labour supply. In many countries of the European Union immigration is considered to be one of the possible solutions to the demographic problems arising from the ageing and decrease of the population. The purpose of this article is to examine the main characteristics of immigration in Spain by analyzing its positive and negative effects. We present the economic and legal motivations of the immigration. We point out that Spain was characterized for a long period by emigration. In the 17th and 18th centuries Latin-America, but between 1960 and 1975 Western Europe (France and West-Germany) were the destinations of emigration. After 1975 the rate of the immigration and emigration has turned and gradually the settlement of foreigners has become characteristic. The immigration was heavily influenced by the “immigrant-friendly” nature of the Spanish migration policy, the favourable income prospects, the cultural and historical (religious, linguistic) tradition rooted in psychological and emotional factors, and the tolerance of the Spanish people towards immigrants. We have examined separately the specific causes of the dynamism of immigration, its structure according to the sending countries, and the decline that occured after 2007 underlining the correlations among the different factors. We deal with the territorial distribution, age composition, qualifications and remuneration situation of the immigrants. We analyze the pay gap between the autochtonous employees and the immigrants in different economic sectors, as well as the importance and amounts of the remittances sent home by the immigrants. We examine in detail the economic impact of immigration, particularly with regard to GDP growth, employment, unemployment. We present the consequences of the economic crisis; the setback of the economy, unemployment growth, the decrease of the population, the xenophobia and the growth of regional disparities. The economic and financial crisis caused a change in the migration trends as well. The earlier growth of immigration has been replaced by a decline of immigration and growth of emigration. We analyze the measures taken by the government to attenuate the negative trends. Due to the crisis, the Spanish government has tightened the control of the immigration, subjected the illegal immigration to rigorous control and encouraged the return of the immigrants. The Spanish government tries to solve the immigration problems by means of regional development, economic crisis management and by promoting the integration of immigrants. Also in Spain – like in other countries of the EU – managing migration means new challenges and tasks, all the more so because the problem must be solved, or at least attenuated, amidst economic crisis, high level of indebtedness, severe budget cuts and unemployment surpassing all previous levels. The results of our analysis show that the management of the problems arising from immigration can not be solved, or only with difficulty, at national level. It requires an international, or at least EU-wide, collaboration and coordinated actions

Identification of Turbomachinery Noise Sources via Processing Beamforming Data Using Principal Component Analysis

Complex turbomachinery systems produce a wide range of noise components. The goal is to identify noise source categories, determine their characteristic noise patterns and locations. Researchers can then use this information to quantify the impact of these noise sources, based on which new design guidelines can be proposed. Phased array microphone measurements processed with acoustic beamforming technology provide noise source maps for pre-determined frequency bands (i.e., bins) of the investigated spectrum. However, multiple noise generation mechanisms can be active in any given frequency bin. Therefore, the identification of individual noise sources is difficult and time consuming when using conventional methods, such as manual sorting. This study presents a method for combining beamforming with Principal Component Analysis (PCA) methods in order to identify and separate apart turbomachinery noise sources with strong harmonics. The method is presented through the investigation of Counter-Rotating Open Rotor (CROR) noise sources. It has been found that the proposed semi-automatic method was able to extract even weak noise source patterns that repeat throughout the data set of the beamforming maps. The analysis yields results that are easy to comprehend without special prior knowledge and is an effective tool for identifying and localizing noise sources for the acoustic investigation of various turbomachinery applications

Challenges and experiences of a participative green space development in Budapest-Józsefváros

This article is an attempt to present the theoretical and practical backgrounds of a participative green space development in Hungary. The renewed green space, Mátyás square is located in District VIII of Budapest, known as Józsefváros. The neighbourhood of Mátyás square had a very negative image, neglected residential areas extended into the heart of the district suffered by different social problems. The local government of Józsefváros elaborated the so called Magdolna Quarter Programme, that contains the details of the social rehabilitation of surroundings of Mátyás square. In frame of this programme – co-financed by EU through GreenKeys Project – the square has been renewed, a collaborative and participative green space development has been fulfilled. The authors were engaged in this model programme, they attempt to summarize briefly the experiences of this unique project of Budapest. The local residents were successfully involved into the planning and the implementation of the project. The participation was considerably efficient, however the experience shows that a participative project may be shorter than the project leaders thought. As a result of this activities the Urban Green Space Strategy of Józsefváros and a computer program for monitoring of green spaces were compiled as well