DYNAMICALLY OPTIMAL AND APPROXIMATELY OPTIMAL BEEF CATTLE DIETS FORMULATED BY NONLINEAR PROGRAMMING

Cattle purchasing, feeding, and selling decisions are described by a free-time optimal control model. The nutrient constraints of the National Research Council and a recently published dry matter intake constraint augment the model and make it nonlinear in the feed ingredients, the daily gain, and the weight of the cattle. Optimal feeding programs are calculated by nonlinear programming under two scenarios: first, when the feedlot has excess capacity and, second, when animals must be sold to make room in the feedlot before more can be purchased. An approximately optimal feeding program is calculated by nonlinear programming and is all but identical to the dynamically optimal programs.Livestock Production/Industries,

Optimal Dynamic Management of Agricultural Land-Uses: An Application of Regime Switching

The capacity of global agricultural production to meet increased demand for food from population growth and wealth accumulation is threatened by extensive land degradation. Nonetheless, previous research has focused primarily on the dynamic implications of input management and ignored land-use choice. This paper extends this theory through an examination of the intertemporal management of agricultural land through the use of non-crop inputs, such as fertilizer, and land uses that either degrade or restore productivity. The need to consider the relative total asset value of alternative crops over time is demonstrated. Moreover, higher output prices for degrading crops are shown to increase their relative value, motivating the later adoption of substitutes. An inability of land markets to reflect differences in resource quality and low capital malleability promote greater degradation. However, substitution of complementary effects through input use may help to sustain productivity. These factors are discussed in the context of crop sequence management in Western Australian cropping systems.crop sequences, land degradation, regime switching, International Development, Production Economics, Q15, Q24,

Intergenerational Consumer Welfare In Dynamic Commodity Markets

In conunodity markets, both prices and the cohorts of con sumers change over time. Previous stabilization literature applied to changing generations incorporates a preference for inequity, does not require those generations who gain from lower prices to compensate those who lose, and assumes instability which preserves arithmetic mean prices. This paper examines preferences for both equity and specific forms of inequity, en forces actual Income compensation to make the Pareto criterion applicable, and Includes both arithmetic and geometric mean preserving price instability. Previous stabilization conclusions are recast into a dynamic context and new ordinal criteria based upon demand and expenditure functions are derived

Decision Technologies, Information, And Expectations In A Dynamic Commodity Market

The information needed by a rational producer in a dynamic commodity market has many components. One is market data on prices and the current capital stock of the industry. Another component is the skill to combine these data into better decisions. In agriculture, prices and stocks are monitored and reported by the U.S.D,A. and Land-Grant Universities at little or not cost to farmers and ranchers. But the techniques for making better decisions are difficult to obtain

Dynamic Contingent Valuation and Choice Modelling for Ecosystem Services

Non market valuation and bio economic modelling are combined in a dynamic model of ecosystem services. A mathematical proof demonstrates that the imputed price of natural capital contains all non market values and that scarcity rent is the total value of ecosystem services. A dynamic demand system, including characteristics is derived. New methods are developed for dynamic welfare analysis and both revealed and stated preference methods are proposed for estimating the price of natural capital. Estimation is simple if we avoid surveying consumers who degrade the ecosystem and instead consult owners who accrue the scarcity rent and conserve for the future.Non market valuation, ecosystem services, Lancaster demand, welfare analysis, analytical solutions, Demand and Price Analysis, Environmental Economics and Policy, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, Q57, Q51, Q56,

Damaged Goods: A resource depletion model of addictive consumption

Economic research on the consumption of harmful goods focuses principally on the addictive nature of consumption rather than its impacts on health, despite medical research showing that consumers primarily consider health effects when making decisions about addictive behaviour. In this paper, the standard rational addiction model is recast in terms of a resource depletion problem, where the resource in question is a depletable stock of health, and the time horizon is finite. Analysis of the prototype health depletion model finds two types of consumption path, one that is compatible with the results from rational addiction and one that is not. Several extensions to the prototype model are explored.Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Real options for adaptive decisions in primary industries

Abstract The long term sustainability of Australian crop and livestock farms is threatened with climate change and climate variability. In response, farmers may decide to (1) adjust practices and technologies, (2) change production systems, or (3) transform their industries, for example, by relocating to new geographical areas. Adjustments to existing practices are easy to make relative to changes to production systems or transformations of an industry. Switching between production regimes requires new investments and infrastructure and can leave assets stranded. These changes can be partially or wholly irreversible but hysteresis effects can make switching difficult and mistakes costly to reverse. ‘Real options’ is a framework to structure thinking and analysis of these difficult choices. Previous work has demonstrated how real options can be applied to adaptation, and extends traditional economic analyses of agricultural investment decisions based on net present values to better represent the uncertainty and risks of climate change. This project uses transects across space as analogues for future climate scenarios. We simulate yields from climate data and draw on data from actual farms to estimate a real options model referred to as ‘Real Options for Adaptive Decisions’ (ROADs). We present results for the transformation of wheat dominant cropping systems in South Australia, New South Wales, and Western Australia. We find that farmers’ decisions, as much as a changing climate, determine how agriculture will be transformed. Please cite this report as: Hertzler, G, Sanderson, T, Capon, T, Hayman, P, Kingwell, R, McClintock, A, Crean, J, Randall, A 2013 Will primary producers continue to adjust practices and technologies, change production systems or transform their industry – an application of real options,  National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, Gold Coast, pp. 93. The long term sustainability of Australian crop and livestock farms is threatened with climate change and climate variability. In response, farmers may decide to (1) adjust practices and technologies, (2) change production systems, or (3) transform their industries, for example, by relocating to new geographical areas. Adjustments to existing practices are easy to make relative to changes to production systems or transformations of an industry. Switching between production regimes requires new investments and infrastructure and can leave assets stranded. These changes can be partially or wholly irreversible but hysteresis effects can make switching difficult and mistakes costly to reverse. ‘Real options’ is a framework to structure thinking and analysis of these difficult choices. Previous work has demonstrated how real options can be applied to adaptation, and extends traditional economic analyses of agricultural investment decisions based on net present values to better represent the uncertainty and risks of climate change. This project uses transects across space as analogues for future climate scenarios. We simulate yields from climate data and draw on data from actual farms to estimate a real options model referred to as ‘Real Options for Adaptive Decisions’ (ROADs). We present results for the transformation of wheat dominant cropping systems in South Australia, New South Wales, and Western Australia. We find that farmers’ decisions, as much as a changing climate, determine how agriculture will be transformed

The impact of price and yield risk on the bioeconomics of reservoir aquaculture in north Vietnam

A bioeconomic model of reservoir aquaculture in northern Vietnam is used to investigate the impacts of price and yield risk on the level, variability and skewness of expected net revenue and utility. Prices and yields are assumed to follow lognormal and beta distributions, respectively. Net revenue follows a generalized gamma distribution and is found to be very risky compared with similar enterprises elsewhere, mainly due to the relatively high yield risk. This represents the nascent nature of the industry in Vietnam and the opportunity for efficiency improvements. Increasing production capacity (through increasing reservoir size, stocking density, production cycle length and harvest rate) are found to increase profits and decrease the variability of profits. Species diversification was found to reduce the riskiness of the enterprise.bioeconomic modelling, price risk, yield risk, aquaculture, Vietnam, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Mathematical Programming Solutions In Constrained Optimal Control

Many economists are familiar with optimal control as a theoretical tool. However, the ability to empirically solve dynamic problems is limited. This paper introduces to the general Agricultural Economics audience a mathematical programming method which has been used success fully for over four years. The basic idea is a straightforward extension of static programming techniques already familiar to economists

Managing and Sharing the Risks of Drought in Australia

Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,