Distinct climate influences on the risk of typhoid compared to invasive non-typhoid Salmonella disease in Blantyre, Malawi.

Invasive Salmonella diseases, both typhoid and invasive non-typhoidal Salmonella (iNTS), are seasonal bloodstream infections causing important morbidity and mortality globally in Africa. The reservoirs and transmission of both are not fully understood. We hypothesised that differences in the time-lagged relationships of rainfall or temperature with typhoid and iNTS incidence might infer differences in epidemiology. We assessed the dynamics of invasive Salmonella incidence over a 16-year period of surveillance, quantifying incidence peaks, seasonal variations, and nonlinear effects of rainfall and temperature exposures on the relative risks of typhoid and iNTS, using monthly lags. An increased relative risk of iNTS incidence was short-lasting but immediate after the onset of the rains, whereas that of typhoid was long-lasting but with a two months delayed start, implying a possible difference in transmission. The relative-risk function of temperature for typhoid was bimodal, with higher risk at both lower (with a 1 month lag) and higher (with a ≥4 months lag) temperatures, possibly reflecting the known patterns of short and long cycle typhoid transmission. In contrast, the relative-risk of iNTS was only increased at lower temperatures, suggesting distinct transmission mechanisms. Environmental and sanitation control strategies may be different for iNTS compared to typhoid disease

Inequalities in the impact of COVID-19-associated disruptions on tuberculosis diagnosis by age and sex in 45 high TB burden countries

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis remains a major public health priority and is the second leading cause of mortality from infectious disease worldwide. TB case detection rates are unacceptably low for men, the elderly and children. Disruptions in TB services due to the COVID-19 pandemic may have exacerbated these and other inequalities. METHODS: We modelled trends in age- and sex- disaggregated case notifications for all forms of new and relapse TB reported to the World Health Organization for 45 high TB, TB/HIV and MDR-TB burden countries from 2013 to 2019. We compared trend predicted notifications to observed notifications in 2020 to estimate the number of people with TB likely to have missed or delayed diagnosis. We estimated the risk ratio (RR) of missed or delayed TB diagnosis for children (aged < 15 years) or the elderly (aged ≥ 65 years) compared to adults (aged 15-64 years) and women compared to men (both aged ≥ 15 years) using a random-effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: An estimated 195,449 children (95% confidence interval, CI: 189,673-201,562, 37.8% of an expected 517,168), 1,126,133 adults (CI: 1,107,146-1,145,704, 21.8% of an expected 5,170,592) and 235,402 elderly (CI: 228,108-243,202, 28.5% of an expected 826,563) had a missed or delayed TB diagnosis in 2020. This included 511,546 women (CI: 499,623-523,869, 22.7%, of an expected 2,250,097) and 863,916 men (CI: 847,591-880,515, 23.0% of an expected 3,763,363). There was no evidence globally that the risk of having TB diagnosis missed or delayed was different for children and adults (RR: 1.09, CI: 0.41-2.91), the elderly and adults (RR: 1.40, CI: 0.62-3.16) or men and women (RR: 0.59, CI: 0.25-1.42). However, there was evidence of disparities in risk by age and/or sex in some WHO regions and in most countries. CONCLUSIONS: There is no evidence at an aggregate global level of any difference by age or sex in the risk of disruption to TB diagnosis as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, in many countries, disruptions in TB services have been greater for some groups than others. It is important to recognise these context-specific inequalities when prioritising key populations for catch-up campaigns

Ascertaining the burden of invasive Salmonella disease in hospitalised febrile children aged under four years in Blantyre, Malawi.

Typhoid fever is endemic across sub-Saharan Africa. However, estimates of the burden of typhoid are undermined by insufficient blood volumes and lack of sensitivity of blood culture. Here, we aimed to address this limitation by exploiting pre-enrichment culture followed by PCR, alongside routine blood culture to improve typhoid case detection. We carried out a prospective diagnostic cohort study and enrolled children (aged 0-4 years) with non-specific febrile disease admitted to a tertiary hospital in Blantyre, Malawi from August 2014 to July 2016. Blood was collected for culture (BC) and real-time PCR after a pre-enrichment culture in tryptone soy broth and ox-bile. DNA was subjected to PCR for invA (Pan-Salmonella), staG (S. Typhi), and fliC (S. Typhimurium) genes. A positive PCR was defined as invA plus either staG or fliC (CT<29). IgM and IgG ELISA against four S. Typhi antigens was also performed. In total, 643 children (median age 1.3 years) with nonspecific febrile disease were enrolled; 31 (4.8%) were BC positive for Salmonella (n = 13 S. Typhi, n = 16 S. Typhimurium, and n = 2 S. Enteritidis). Pre-enrichment culture of blood followed by PCR identified a further 8 S. Typhi and 15 S. Typhimurium positive children. IgM and IgG titres to the S. Typhi antigen STY1498 (haemolysin) were significantly higher in children that were PCR positive but blood culture negative compared to febrile children with all other non-typhoid illnesses. The addition of pre-enrichment culture and PCR increased the case ascertainment of invasive Salmonella disease in children by 62-94%. These data support recent burden estimates that highlight the insensitivity of blood cultures and support the targeting of pre-school children for typhoid vaccine prevention in Africa. Blood culture with real-time PCR following pre-enrichment should be used to further refine estimates of vaccine effectiveness in typhoid vaccine trials

The influence of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine-13 on nasal colonisation in a controlled human infection model of pneumococcal carriage in Malawi: a double-blinded randomised controlled trial protocol

Streptococcus pneumoniae is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality due to community acquired pneumonia, bacterial meningitis and bacteraemia worldwide. Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines protect against invasive disease, but are expensive to manufacture, limited in serotype coverage, associated with serotype replacement, and demonstrate reduced effectiveness against mucosal colonisation. For Malawi, nasopharyngeal carriage of vaccine-type pneumococci is common in vaccinated children despite national roll-out of 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) since 2011. Our team has safely transferred an established experimental human pneumococcal carriage method from Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine to the Malawi-Liverpool Wellcome Trust Clinical Research Programme, Malawi. This study will determine potential immunological mechanisms for the differential effects of PCV13 on nasal carriage between healthy Malawian and UK populations. We will conduct a double-blinded randomised controlled trial to vaccinate (1:1) participants with either PCV13 or control (normal saline). After a period of one month, participants will be inoculated with S. pneumoniae serotype 6B to experimentally induce nasal carriage using the EHPC method. Subsequently, participants will be invited for a second inoculation after one year to determine longer-term vaccine-induced immunological effects. Primary endpoint: detection of inoculated pneumococci by classical culture from nasal wash recovered from the participants after pneumococcal challenge. Secondary endpoints: local and systemic innate, humoral and cellular responses to PCV-13 with and without pneumococcal nasal carriage The primary objective of this controlled human infection model study is to determine if PCV-13 vaccination is protective against pneumococcal carriage in healthy adult Malawian volunteers. This study will help us to understand the observed differences in PCV-13 efficacy between populations and inform the design of future vaccines relevant to the Malawian population

Performance of molecular methods for the detection of Salmonella in human stool specimens

Background: The relationship between asymptomatic Salmonella exposure within the gastrointestinal tract and Salmonella bacteraemia is poorly understood, in part due to the low sensitivity of stool culture and the lack of validated molecular diagnostic tests for the detection of Salmonella in the stool. The study aimed to determine a reliable molecular diagnostic test for Salmonella in stool specimens. Methods: : We optimised an in-house monoplex real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) for the detection of Salmonella ttr and InvA genes in stool by including a selenite broth pre-culture step for Salmonella before DNA extraction and validated their specificity against other local common pathogens. Then we assessed their performance against a well-validated multiplex PCR targeting the same ttr and InvA genes and against stool culture using clinical stool specimens collected from a cohort of 50 asymptomatic healthy Malawian children that were sampled at 1-month intervals over 12 months. We employed a latent Markov model to estimate the specificities and sensitivities of PCR methods. Results: Ttr and InvA primers were both able to detect all the different Salmonella serovars tested and had superior limits of detection when DNA was extracted after selenite pre-culture. T tr sensitivity and specificity for monoplex-PCR were (99.53%, 95.46%) and for multiplex-PCR (90.30%, 99.30%) respectively. InvA specificity and specificity for using monoplex-PCR was (95.06%, 90.31%) and multiplex-PCRs (89.41%, 98.00%) respectively. Sensitivity and specificity for standard stool culture were 62.88% and 99.99%, respectively. Culture showed the highest PPV (99.73%), and monoplex- ttr had the highest NPV (99.67%). Conclusion: Test methods demonstrated high concordance, although stool culture and monoplexed ttr primers had superior specificity and sensitivity, respectively. The use of selenite pre-enrichment step increased Salmonella detection rate. Taken together, molecular detection methods used here could be used to reveal the true extent of both asymptomatic and symptomatic Salmonella exposure events

Effect of antiretroviral therapy on longitudinal lung function trends in older children and adolescents with HIV-infection.

INTRODUCTION: Chronic respiratory disease is a common cause of morbidity in children with HIV infection. We investigated longitudinal lung function trends among HIV-infected children, to describe the evolution of lung disease and assess the effect of anti-retroviral therapy (ART). METHODS: Prospective follow-up of two cohorts of HIV-infected children, aged 6 to 16 years, in Harare, Zimbabwe; one group were ART-naïve at enrolment, the other established on ART for a median of 4.7-years. Standardised spirometric assessments were repeated over a 2-year follow-up period. Forced expiratory volume (FEV1) and forced vital capacity (FVC) were expressed as Global Lung Initiative defined z-scores (FEV1z and FVCz). Linear mixed-effects regression modelling of lung function was performed, with co-variate parameters evaluated by likelihood ratio comparison. RESULTS: We included 271 ART-naïve and 197 ART-established children (median age 11 years in both groups) incorporating 1144 spirometric assessments. Changes in FEV1 and FVC were associated with age at ART initiation and body mass index for both cohorts. Our models estimate that ART initiation earlier in life could prevent a deterioration of 0.04 FVCz/year. In the ART-naïve cohort, likelihood ratio comparison suggested an improvement in 0.09 FVCz/year during the two years following treatment initiation, but no evidence for this among participants established on ART. CONCLUSION: Early ART initiation and improved nutrition are positively associated with lung function and are important modifiable factors. An initial improvement in lung growth was seen in the first 2-years following ART initiation, although this did not appear to be sustained beyond this timeframe

Evaluating the relationship between ciprofloxacin prescription and non-susceptibility in Salmonella Typhi in Blantyre, Malawi: an observational study

Background Ciprofloxacin is the first-line drug for treating typhoid fever in many countries in Africa with a high disease burden, but the emergence of non-susceptibility poses a challenge to public health programmes. Through enhanced surveillance as part of vaccine evaluation, we investigated the occurrence and potential determinants of ciprofloxacin non-susceptibility in Blantyre, Malawi. Methods We conducted systematic surveillance of typhoid fever cases and antibiotic prescription in two health centres in Blantyre, Malawi, between Oct 1, 2016, and Oct 31, 2019, as part of the STRATAA and TyVAC studies. In addition, blood cultures were taken from eligible patients presenting at Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital, Blantyre, as part of routine diagnosis. Inclusion criteria were measured or reported fever, or clinical suspicion of sepsis. Microbiologically, we identified Salmonella enterica serotype Typhi (S Typhi) isolates with a ciprofloxacin non-susceptible phenotype from blood cultures, and used whole-genome sequencing to identify drug-resistance mutations and phylogenetic relationships. We constructed generalised linear regression models to investigate associations between the number of ciprofloxacin prescriptions given per month to study participants and the proportion of S Typhi isolates with quinolone resistance-determining region (QRDR) mutations in the following month. Findings From 46 989 blood cultures from Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital, 502 S Typhi isolates were obtained, 30 (6%) of which had either decreased ciprofloxacin susceptibility, or ciprofloxacin resistance. From 11 295 blood cultures from STRATAA and TyVAC studies, 241 microbiologically confirmed cases of typhoid fever were identified, and 198 isolates from 195 participants sequenced (mean age 12·8 years [SD 10·2], 53% female, 47% male). Between Oct 1, 2016, and Aug 31, 2019, of 177 typhoid fever cases confirmed by whole-genome sequencing, four (2%) were caused by S Typhi with QRDR mutations, compared with six (33%) of 18 cases between Sept 1 and Oct 31, 2019. This increase was associated with a preceding spike in ciprofloxacin prescriptions. Every additional prescription of ciprofloxacin given to study participants in the preceding month was associated with a 4·2% increase (95% CI 1·8–7·0) in the relative risk of isolating S Typhi with a QRDR mutation (p=0·0008). Phylogenetic analysis showed that S Typhi isolates with QRDR mutations from September and October, 2019, belonged to two distinct subclades encoding two different QRDR mutations, and were closely related (4–10 single-nucleotide polymorphisms) to susceptible S Typhi endemic to Blantyre. Interpretation We postulate a causal relationship between increased ciprofloxacin prescriptions and an increase in fluoroquinolone non-susceptibility in S Typhi. Decreasing ciprofloxacin use by improving typhoid diagnostics, and reducing typhoid fever cases through the use of an efficacious vaccine, could help to limit the emergence of resistance. Funding Wellcome Trust, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and National Institute for Health and Care Research (UK)

Incidence of HIV-positive admission and inpatient mortality in Malawi (2012-2019).

OBJECTIVE: To investigate trends in population incidence of HIV-positive hospital admission and risk of in-hospital death among adults living with HIV between 2012 and 2019 in Blantyre, Malawi. DESIGN: Population cohort study using an existing electronic health information system ('SPINE') at Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital and Blantyre census data. METHODS: We used multiple imputation and negative binomial regression to estimate population age-specific and sex-specific admission rates over time. We used a log-binomial model to investigate trends in risk of in-hospital death. RESULTS: Of 32 814 adult medical admissions during Q4 2012--Q3 2019, HIV status was recorded for 75.6%. HIV-positive admissions decreased substantially between 2012 and 2019. After imputation for missing data, HIV-positive admissions were highest in Q3 2013 (173 per 100 000 adult Blantyre residents) and lowest in Q3 2019 (53 per 100 000 residents). An estimated 10 818 fewer than expected people with HIV (PWH) [95% confidence interval (CI) 10 068-11 568] were admitted during 2012-2019 compared with the counterfactual situation where admission rates stayed the same throughout this period. Absolute reductions were greatest for women aged 25-34 years (2264 fewer HIV-positive admissions, 95% CI 2002-2526). In-hospital mortality for PWH was 23.5%, with no significant change over time in any age-sex group, and no association with antiretroviral therapy (ART) use at admission. CONCLUSION: Rates of admission for adult PWH decreased substantially, likely because of large increases in community provision of HIV diagnosis, treatment and care. However, HIV-positive in-hospital deaths remain unacceptably high, despite improvements in ART coverage. A concerted research and implementation agenda is urgently needed to reduce inpatient deaths among PWH

Impact of COVID-19 on tuberculosis notifications in Blantyre Malawi: an interrupted time series analysis and qualitative study with healthcare workers.

COVID-19 may impact on tuberculosis (TB) diagnosis and care. We analysed a city-wide electronic TB register in Blantyre, Malawi and interviewed TB officers. Malawi had no official “lockdown” but closed schools and borders on 23 March 2020. In interrupted time series analysis, there was an immediate 35.9% reduction in TB notifications (95% CI 22.0 to 47.3%) in April, which recovered to near pre-pandemic numbers by December 2020, but with 333 (95% CI 291 to 375) fewer cumulative notifications than anticipated. Women and girls were impacted (30.7% fewer cases, 95% CI 28.4 to 33.0%) more than men and boys (20.9% fewer, 95% CI 18.5 to 23.3). Fear of COVID-19 infection, temporary facility closure, inadequate protective equipment and COVID-19 stigma with similar presenting symptoms to TB were mentioned. Public health measures could benefit both TB and COVID-19, but only if diagnostic services remain accessible and are considered safe to attend

Omicron B.1.1.529 variant infections associated with severe disease are uncommon in a COVID-19 under-vaccinated, high SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence population in Malawi.

BACKGROUND: The B.1.1.529 (Omicron) variant of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has resulted in the fourth COVID-19 pandemic wave across the southern African region, including Malawi. The seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies and their association with epidemiological trends of hospitalisations and deaths are needed to aid locally relevant public health policy decisions. METHODS: We conducted a population-based serosurvey from December 27, 2021 to January 17, 2022, in 7 districts across Malawi to determine the seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. Serum samples were tested for antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 receptor binding domain using WANTAI SARS-CoV-2 Receptor Binding Domain total antibody commercial enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). We also evaluated COVID-19 epidemiologic trends in Malawi, including cases, hospitalisations and deaths from April 1, 2021 through April 30, 2022, collected using the routine national COVID-19 reporting system. A multivariable logistic regression model was developed to investigate the factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity. FINDINGS: Serum samples were analysed from 4619 participants (57% female; 60% aged 18-50 years), of whom 878/3794 (23%) of vaccine eligible adults had received a single dose of any COVID-19 vaccine. The overall assay-adjusted seroprevalence was 83.7% (95% confidence interval (CI), 79.3%-93.4%). Seroprevalence was lowest among children <13 years of age (66%) and highest among adults 18-50 years of age (82%). Seroprevalence was higher among vaccinated compared to unvaccinated participants (1 dose, 94% vs. 77%, adjusted odds ratio 4.89 [95% CI, 3.43-7.22]; 2 doses, 97% vs. 77%, aOR 6.62 [95% CI, 4.14-11.3]). Urban residents were more likely to be seropositive than those from rural settings (91% vs. 78%, aOR 2.76 [95% CI, 2.16-3.55]). There was at least a two-fold reduction in the proportion of hospitalisations and deaths among the reported cases in the fourth wave compared to the third wave (hospitalisations, 10.7% (95% CI, 10.2-11.3) vs. 4.86% (95% CI, 4.52-5.23), p < 0.0001; deaths, 3.48% (95% CI, 3.18-3.81) vs. 1.15% (95% CI, 1.00-1.34), p < 0.0001). INTERPRETATION: We report reduction in proportion of hospitalisations and deaths from SARS-CoV-2 infections during the Omicron variant dominated wave in Malawi, in the context of high SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence and low COVID-19 vaccination coverage. These findings suggest that COVID-19 vaccination policy in high seroprevalence settings may need to be amended from mass campaigns to targeted vaccination of reported at-risk populations. FUNDING: Supported by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (INV-039481)